Ida takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast
Hurricane Ida burst into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds this afternoon, and is poised to deliver a solid blow to the U.S. Gulf Coast between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday morning. Radar imagery out of Cancun reveals that Ida has retained its tight inner core this afternoon, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico today were only 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida passed just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change in the intensity of Ida's heavy thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cloud pattern is beginning to become distorted due to strong upper-level winds from the southwest that are creating 20 - 25 knots of wind shear over the hurricane. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a large area of dry air to the southwest of Ida, but this dry air has not yet intruded into Ida's core. The latest 5:30 pm EST vortex report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that the central pressure had risen 1 mb, to 977 mb, but that the surface winds were still near 100 mph. They noted that the eyewall was open to the east, a sign that Ida's inner core may be in trouble.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Terra spacecraft, taken at 1:35 pm EST 11/08/09. Image credit: NASA.
The intensity forecast for Ida
The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. With the storm now beginning to show a distortion of the cloud pattern due to this shear, it would not be a surprise of the shear managed to inject some dry air into Ida's core Monday morning, significantly weakening the storm. Aiding this process will be cooler waters. Early Monday morning, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. By Monday night, wind shear is expected to increase to 40 knots, which ordinarily would begin to tear the storm apart. This wind shear is due to an extratropical low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico, and this low will begin dumping cold, stable air into Ida Monday night through Tuesday. This will cause Ida to begin transitioning to an extratropical storm, and it is possible that during the transition Ida's winds will die down relatively slowly, despite the wind shear. The intensity forecast has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised at a landfall strength anywhere in the range of 45 mph - 80 mph. My personal best guess is a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm at landfall. Regardless of Ida's strength at landfall, the storm will be able to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Panama City. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible, primarily to the right side of Ida's track.
Figure 2. Maximum storm surge (depth of water above ground) for a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Ida is expected to be moving at this speed and direction at landfall, but will probably be weaker, so surges will not be this high. Image credit: NOAA SLOSH model run for Mobile Bay, 2008 version. Heights are given relative to the NAVD88 datum.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Storm surge is the other major concern for Ida. With a strong high pressure system anchored over the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water will occur, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With battering waves building Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, a significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage to the low-lying heavily developed island. If Ida makes a direct hit on Mobile Bay as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds, a storm surge of up to six feet is possible there, assuming the storm hits at mean tide. The tidal range along the Gulf Coast varies by about 1.5 feet between low and high tide (Figure 3). High tide is near 2 am EST on Tuesday, but the official NHC forecast currently has the storm hitting between 6 am - 9 am, when the tide will be going out, so the storm may indeed be hitting at about mean tide.
Figure 3. The tide forecast for the Gulf Coast calls for high tide to occur around 2 am EST Tuesday morning. Ida is expected to hit later that morning, while the tide is going out.
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Cancun radar
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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You are under Huricane Watch right now that means Huricane conditions are posible within the next 36 hrs.
Hey, Matt, we've been like passing ships on here ourselves! (going off-topic...) Bad news, Pats game not broadcast here because of Deadskins game. Would have gone to pub if it hadn't meant missing Ida (brought it back around to topic, phew).
She's flipping the bird to the dry air to the SW. Moving fast too. Maybe past the 6Z fcst point by 6Z if this keeps up.
Get an umbrella.
In your opinion, is a peninsula landfall possible? Or is it out of the question?
Thanks Drak - I was j/k.. Lighten up.
The joke was: Difluence in only one direction?
Can it be spreading out, if it's only in one direction (In this case, North)(I know, that would be meridional) so, if not difluence, then just fluence?
haha yeah, and hurricane Ida might stop me from watching the Cowboys and Eagles duke it out tonight as well, with excellent playing weather
TampaSpin, thank goodness you are here! Can you tell me that we are out of the woods here in Tampa?
Any day is a bad day for a Hurricane!
We just got our first official notice from the "head office".
Everyone please remind Vacationers along the coast to STAY OUT of the water! Most of the beach services have closed for the season & most of the beaches do not have life guards posted this time of the year. Rip Currents will be STRONG.
I thought it was an actual question.
not sure what is happening,
Ida winds are up but pressure down???
still heading North but for how long..
is Shear affecting her already??
Interesting situation here.
I feel that here in SE Fla we should be OK;
as it stands now..
only some outter bands and hopefully some rain.
but not sure about all my friends on the North side of the GOM.
Take care and be prepared just in case
she ends up being stronger than predicted.
but she could also be weaker than predicted.
we just do not know at this point..
that was way too much information wasn't it? LOL
Looks more Like 13 mph or dare I say a tad faster again.
Thats a bad trend if that pans out.
Nothing is ever out of the question with a hurricane, especially a late season system , but I stand by 83W as the furthest point East unless something significant changes.
Im glad you caught my sarcasm BFoxx..
How was the spearfishing Rodeo?
Nuttin gets past me...
83 W is just north of Tampa.
Best case,Ida gets drunk and winds down to a Claudette and makes us giggle.
Lotsa folks cane weary for sure.
I have just returned from Walmart on Blue Angel. There are few people out buying supplies, and some do not even know about Ida. I called a friend and he was like HUH? A what? he thought I was joking. I think we have a problem here with it being NOV and we have folks off guard and in denial. I am close to the Ivan disaster areas , Big Lagoon, Grande Lagoon etc. Tommorow will be a zoo when people find out . Do we even still have hurricane supplies? No , everyone gave up and used them.
This could be a bad situation. I hope Portlight can find Perdido Key....This is just Bizzarre!
Ps I did replenish supplies tonight.
These houses were built in the 50's early 60's. Water had never been anywhere near the yards much less the houses. Your inlet is much wider than ours. But Ivan had hit cat 5 so had big surge with it. But it remember it did take out I10 and look how far in that is, plus took out houses up near pace. Just saying, take nothing for granted. Good luck to you.
Near the big bend I think no ?
Hi Foxx,
so strange the difference between North Fla and down here in SE Fla....
our "season" begins in mid Nov...
we are in full Vacation Speed from Mid Nov thur mid May!
We do not have real life guards on every beach
in the summer months because the only ones here are locals! LOL
but once the tourist arrive in Mid Nov we have life guards again at all beaches!
Don't forget those snow birds.
Yes, in that general area.
Can't say that yet....anyone south of land is going to have problems.
Our mets make is sound like we'll get a rain shower and that's about it.
I AGREE. I WAS JUST LOOKING AT THE LOOP AND IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN I THINK I JUST SAW A JOG TO THE WEST. CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG,BUT THAT IS WHAT I SEE.
Wow several of those models make it turn quite a bit after landfall.
also, while I LOL'ed at "FEMA throwback" line, Craig Fugate, new head of FEMA, is going to be way p'oed because media caught this. He was the head of Florida EMA (that isn't his exact title), is really experienced and well thought of.
I think you mean west of Tampa. If it comes in at 83W, it will be near 30N, well north of Tampa. You will still some interesting wx in Tampa with squally bands and gusty winds.
Enjoying another Saints win afterglow and soaking up the GOM Info and images.
Lotsa tabs a burning tonight..LOL
Well, its west and north of Tampa.
for real???
I am closer to the system than you and still no real feeder bans yet..
Really? I could've sworn I saw a jog to the EAST!
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