Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

A rare Deep South snow event breaks Dallas' all-time snowfall record

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:55 PM GMT on February 12, 2010

A rare Deep South heavy snow event is in full swing today, thanks to a powerful 1000 mb extratropical storm centered just south of Alabama. The storm clobbered Dallas with 11.2" of snow yesterday, the heaviest snow on record for the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. Dallas' previous record was 7.4", set on January 15 - 16, 1964. The 14.4" of snow that has now fallen on Dallas this winter eclipses the previous record seasonal snowfall for the city--14.1" during the winter of 1977 - 1978. Yesterday's snowstorm dumped over a foot of snow along a narrow region just north of Dallas and Fort Worth, with the town of Haslet receiving 14.2".

Figure 1. The Deep South snow event of February, 12, 2010 in a visible satellite image taken at 9 am EST. Image credit: NASA GOES project.

As the storm races eastwards across the Gulf today, a wide area of snowfall in excess of four inches will affect Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, with lesser amounts in South Carolina, North Carolina, and the extreme northwestern corner of the Florida Panhandle. As of 7am this morning, here are some selected snow amounts reported by National Weather Service:

...ALABAMA...
CUBA 1.5
THOMASVILLE 1.0

...ARKANSAS...
FOREMAN 4.0
TEXARKANA 1 N 4.0

...LOUISIANA...
NATCHITOCHES 6.0
SHONGALOO 5 N 6.0
SHREVEPORT 5.4
MONROE 5.0
NATCHITOCHES 4.0

...MISSISSIPPI...
DE KALB 8.0
CATAHOULA 5.0
VICKSBURG 5.0
RAYVILLE 4.2
BROOKHAVEN 4.0
MCCALL CREEK 5 W 4.0
SICILY ISLAND 4.0
JACKSON 3.2

...OKLAHOMA...
HAWORTH 4 SW 7.5
IDABEL 8 SE 7.5
RATTAN 13 E 4.5

...TEXAS...
HASLET 14.2
FORT WORTH 12.6
DALLAS 12.5
BRIDGEPORT 12.0
ROYSE CITY 12.0
POINT 3.7 ESE 11.0
EAGLE MOUNTAIN 10.5
ENNIS 10.3
FRISCO 1.9 N 10.3
JACKSBORO 6.2 SW 10.0
LINDALE 10.0
NORTH RICHLAND HILLS 10.0
COTTONDALE 9.5
OAK CLIFF 9.5
PRINCETON 3 N 9.5
FORT WORTH 14 N 9.0
ARLINGTON 8.0

As we can see from a plot of the frequency of U.S. snowstorms between 1900 - 2001 (Figure 2), heavy snow events of 6+ inches occur about once every ten years for Dallas, and between once every ten years and once every 100 years for the portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama that may end up getting 6+ inches from this storm.

Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.

More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper (Figure 2) is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches between 1901 - 2000. However, a separate paper by Houston and Changnon (2009), "Characteristics of the top ten snowstorms at First-Order Stations in the U.S.", found that there was no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001, as evaluated by looking at the top ten snowstorms for 121 major cities.

More snow headed for the mid-Atlantic next week
The extreme amounts of snow on the ground in the Mid-Atlantic from back-to-back blizzards over the past week will get some more company on Monday night, when a new snowstorm will hit the region. I'm thinking that the new storm will drop another 2 - 6 inches of snow on the Baltimore-D.C.-Philadelphia region. The computer forecast models have not yet come into agreement on where Monday's storm will hit, or how much moisture it will be able to tap into, so there is still high uncertainty over how much snow will fall.

A historical precedent for "Snowmageddon": the "Great Snow" of 1717
I've commented several times this week that there is no precedent in the historical record, going back to the late 1800s, to the incredible snow blitz the Mid-Atlantic has endured. Well, it turns out there is a comparable winter, at least for Philadelphia, if one goes back in time nearly 300 years. According to Chris Burt, author of the excellent book, Extreme Weather, in 1717 four storms between February 27 and March 9 dropped a total of 3 - 5 feet of snow from Philadelphia to Boston. Snow drifts as much as 25' deep occurred in the Boston area. An account of the 1717 event was one of the first journal entries of the Massachusetts Historical Society by Cotton Mather. Chris told me he wasn't aware of any comparable events affecting Washington D.C. or Baltimore, however. Chris will be joining wunderground this April as a featured blogger, and I greatly look forward to having him put our modern weather records into historical context.

Next post
I'll probably do a short post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Blizzard Car Shadows (BocaJoe)

Snow Damage in Arlington (mikekttx)

Snow Damage in Arlington on 2/11/10. Apartment covered parking structures are failing all over the city.

Categories: Winter Weather

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601. drg0dOwnCountry 4:29 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting Cranberryuplink: Dr. Masters, I am pleased to read that you are showing signs of truly being a scientist - evaluating the data and not the politics. Good job! Here is the full audio of this interview Must-hear audio of press call with Dr. Jeff Masters and me on record snowstorms, extreme weather, and climate change science http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/12/jeff-masters-joseph-romm-on-record-snowstorms-extreme-weather -and-climate-change-science/#comment-262354 And i suggest you read this blog from Jeff Masters Heavy snowfall in a warming world http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1427 Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1937

602. Skyepony (Mod) 4:58 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Message from the NAVY.. NOTE: AMSR-E data back in sync, WHO DAT!!!! Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29283

603. largeeyes 5:00 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Looks like we got around 8" here in eastern NC according to the local reports(I got up too late for an accurate measurement). I lost a tree to the heavy wet snow. Any suggestions on how to post a picture? Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1380

604. Drakoen 5:06 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Possibly another round of snow for the south on the back edge of the clipper system that it will be moving through the Tennessee river valley. Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

606. drg0dOwnCountry 5:20 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Tonga Shaken By Massive EarthquakeTonga Shaken By Massive Earthquake An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 hit the Pacific island of Tonga today at 04:47am local time 1:47am in Tonga). The earth quake rocked Tonga, catching residents off guard as they prepared themselves for a visit from tropical cyclone, Rene, which is currently a category three cyclone with wind speeds of up to 93 miles an hour. Thank goodness there was no tsunami alert, immediate reports of damage, or mortality reports following the massive quake which occurred only 60 miles (96 kilometers) away from the nation's capital, Nuku'alofa. http://newsblaze.com/story/20100213074108kris.nb/topstory.html Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1937

607. drg0dOwnCountry 5:25 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Winter wonderland has a dark side: power failures and downed trees On Day 2 after the biggest snowfall ever to hit North Texas, restoration of power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses remains top priority, with the region’s electrical utility warning that some homes will be without power until Sunday evening. Oncor, which operates the area’s power lines, worked through the night and restored electricity to 50,000 homes, the utility said in a news release issued today. By 4:30 a.m., about 150,000 homes remained without power, the release said. Meanwhile, crews continued to clean up downed and damaged trees across the Dallas area after what one expert called the most devastating storm for the region’s trees in more than 30 years. http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/021310dnmetsnow.3e83f85.html Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1937

608. iceagecoming 5:47 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
I'm ready for a heat wave, this snow is getting old. Member Since: January 27, 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 852

609. drg0dOwnCountry 5:49 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Quoting iceagecoming: I'm ready for a heat wave, this snow is getting old. What would be better in a heatwave? Power outages are common, you basicly stay indoors, supplies become fierce ... Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1937

610. drg0dOwnCountry 6:06 PM GMT on February 13, 2010
Freak snow has South sliding "Even Pensacola [Florida] saw a trace of snow from the storm," Schneider said. "Atlanta had a little more than 3½ inches of snow on the ground. That's a lot for this time of the winter." According to the National Weather Service, 68.1 percent of the United States is covered with snow, compared with 51.2 percent in January. Every state except Hawaii has some snow cover. And more is coming. A storm system could bring several more inches to the beleaguered mid-Atlantic states Monday, Schneider said. "This winter just does not want to die down," she said. http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/weather/02/13/winter.weather/?hpt=T2 Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1937

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