Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The future of intense winter storms

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on March 03, 2010

When Winter Storm Xynthia powered ashore over Europe last weekend, it brought hurricane-force wind gusts, flooding rains, and a 1-meter storm surge topped by 8-meter high battering waves that overwhelmed sea walls in France, killing scores of people. Today, AIR Worldwide estimated the insured damage from the storm at $1.5 - $3 billion. Intense extratropical cyclones like Xynthia, with central pressures below 970 mb, make up less than 20% of all wintertime cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, but cause the vast majority of the devastation and loss of life. The ten deadliest winter storms to hit Europe over the past 60 years all had minimum pressures lower than 970 mb. The situation is similar for North America, though the storms generally do not get as intense as their European counterparts (the four major Nor'easters this winter have had central pressures of 968, 969, 978, and 972 mb). It is important, then, to ask if these strongest of the strong storms are changing in frequency, and whether a future warmer world will have more or less of these storms.

Figure 1. Winter Storm Xynthia, as captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Image was acquired in two separate overpasses on February 27, 2010. MODIS captured the eastern half of the image around 10:50 UTC, and the western half about 12:30 UTC. Forming a giant comma shape, clouds stretch from the Atlantic Ocean to northern Italy. Xynthia peaked in intensity at 18 UTC February 27, with a central pressure of 966 mb. Image credit: NASA.

Have intense Northern Hemisphere winter storms increased in number?
Most of the material for this post comes from three sources: the 2007 IPCC report, a 2009 review titled, Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, and Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). An increasing number of intense winter storms in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades of the 20th century was a common theme of many of the studies reviewed. However, the studies used different measures as to what constitutes an "intense" storm, and have some disagreement on which areas of the globe are seeing more intense storms. A 1996 study by Canadian researcher Steven Lambert (Figure 3) found a marked increase in intense wintertime cyclones (central pressure less than 970 mb) in the latter part of the 20th century. Most of this increase occurred in the Pacific Ocean. Other studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific in the latter part of the 20th century. Benestad and Chen(2006) found an increase in the number of intense storms over the Nordic countries over the period 1955-1994, but no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic. Gulev et al. (2001) found a small increase in the number of intense North Pacific storms (core pressure below 980 mb), a large increase in the Arctic, but a small decrease in the Atlantic. McCabe et al. 2001 found an increase at both mid-latitudes and high latitudes, particularly in the Arctic. Hirsch et al. (2001) found that the number of intense Nor'easters along the U.S. East Coast (storms with winds > 52 mph) stayed roughly constant at three storms per year over the period 1951 - 1997. Over the period 1900 to 1990, the number of strong cyclones (less than 992 mb) in November and December more than doubled over the Great Lakes of North America (Angel and Isard, 1998). With regards to Europe, Lionello et al. conclude, "the bulk of evidence from recent studies mostly supports, or at least does not contradict, the finding of an attenuation of cyclones over the Mediterranean and an intensification over Northern Europe during the second part of the twentieth century".

Figure 2. Trends in strong extratropical cyclones with central pressures less than 980 mb, for the period 1989 - 2009, as estimated using thirteen different methods, M02 - M22, defined in Neu et al., 2012. The error-bars represent the 95% confidence range of the trend estimate. A trend is significant at 5% level if the error-bar does not include zero. Four of the thirteen methods showed a slightly significant downward trend in both summertime and wintertime Northern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during the period. None of the methods showed a statistically significant trend in Southern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during either summer or winter. Image credit: U. Neu, M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

In summary, the best science we have shows that there has not been a statistically significant increase in the number of intense wintertime extratropical storms globally in the past two decades, but there has been and increase in the North Pacific and Arctic. Increased wave heights have been observed along the coasts of Oregon and Washington during this period, adding confidence to the finding of increased intense storm activity. The evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Wintertime top 5% heavy precipitation events (both rain and snow) have increased over the Northeast U.S. in recent decades (Groisman et al., 2004), so Nor'easters have been more of a threat to cause flooding problems and heavy snow events. In all portions of the globe, tracks of extratropical storms have shifted poleward in recent decades, in accordance with global warming theory. Note that the historical data base for strong winter storms is in better shape than the data base we are using to try to detect long-term changes in hurricanes. The Ulbrich et al. (2009) review article states:

The IPCC AR4 (cf. Trenberth et al. 2007, p. 312) states that the detection of long-term changes in cyclone measures is hampered by incomplete and changing observing systems. Recent studies found, however, a general reliability of results for cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. There are no sudden shifts in intensities that would indicate inhomogeneities, and also a comparison with cyclone activity estimated from regional surface and radiosonde data (Wang et al. 2006b; Harnik and Chang 2003) confirmed the general reliability of the data".

However, the data is not as good in the Southern Hemisphere, so the finding that intense winter storms are also increasing in that hemisphere must be viewed with caution.

Figure 3. Number of intense winter cyclones with central pressure less than 970 mb in the Northern Hemisphere, North Pacific, and North Atlantic between 1899 - 1991. Image credit: Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number
General Circulation Models (GCMs) like the ones used in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report do a very good job simulating how winter storms behave in the current climate, and we can run simulations of the atmosphere with extra greenhouse gases to see how winter storms will behave in the future. The results are very interesting. Global warming is expected to warm the poles more than the equatorial regions. This reduces the difference in temperature between the pole and Equator. Since winter storms form in response to the atmosphere's need to transport heat from the Equator to the poles, this reduced temperature difference reduces the need for winter storms, and thus the models predict fewer storms will form. However, since a warmer world increases the amount of evaporation from the surface and puts more moisture in the air, these future storms drop more precipitation. During the process of creating that precipitation, the water vapor in the storm must condense into liquid or frozen water, liberating "latent heat"--the extra heat that was originally added to the water vapor to evaporate it in the first place. This latent heat intensifies the winter storm, lowering the central pressure and making the winds increase. So, the modeling studies predict a future with fewer total winter storms, but a greater number of intense storms. These intense storms will have more lift, and will thus tend to drop more precipitation--including snow, when we get areas of strong lift in the -15°C preferred snowflake formation region. For completeness' sake, some of the studies that show more intense winter cyclones in a warmer world are Lambert (1995), Boer et al. (1992), Dai et al. (2001), Geng and Sugi (2003), Fyfe (2003), Lambert (2004), Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2004), Lambert and Fyfe (2006), Pinto et al. (2007), and Lionello et al. (2008). A review article be Ulbrich et al. provides a nice summary. However, two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. One interesting new study (O'Gorman, 2010) found that wintertime extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere would increase in intensity by 2100 primarily because the surface would heat up more than the upper air, making the atmosphere more unstable. In summer, the models predict a decrease in extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, these storms were predicted in increase in intensity year-round. The models studied were the 2007 IPCC suite of climate models.

What the IPCC models say
The Lambert and Fyfe (2006) study, titled, "Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise", looked at thirteen models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC Climate Change report. Of these models, eleven simulated an increase in the number and intensity of the most intense cyclones (<970 mb pressure) in the climate expected by 2100. Two of the models did not, so it is fair to say that there is some uncertainty in these results. Nevertheless, the model results are compelling enough that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms.

Figure 4. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Conclusion
The best science we have suggests that there has not been an increase in intense wintertime extratropical cyclones globally in recent decades, though there has been an increase in the Pacific and Arctic. Intense winter extratropical cyclones are expected to in increase in number and shift northwards in a warming climate, with northwest Europe at significantly higher risk of seeing an increase in intense storms. Research by Barredo (2010) suggests that Europe has not yet seen a significant increase in damaging winter storms, since normalized damages from severe winter storms did not increase between 1970 - 2008.

References
Auer, A.H. Jr. and J.M. White, 1982: The Combined Role of Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Cloud Physics Associated with Heavy Snowfall Episodes. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, pp 500-507.

Barredo, J.I., 2010, "No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008," Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 97-104, 2010, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010

Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006): Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:35183543

Boer GJ, McFarlane NA, Lazare M (1992) Greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated with the CCC second generation general circulation model. J Climate 5:10451077

Dai, A., et al., 2001b: Climates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Clim., 14, 485519.

Fyfe, J.C., 2003: Extratropical southern hemisphere cyclones: Harbingers of climate change? J. Clim., 16, 28022805.

Geng, Q.Z., and M. Sugi, 2003: Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols - Study with a high-resolution AGCM. J. Clim., 16, 22622274.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007a: Higher waves along U.S. east coast linked to hurricanes. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88, 301.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007b: A note on the depiction and analysis of wave-height histograms. Shore & Beach, 75(4), 1- 5.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Lambert, S.J., 1995: The effect of enhanced greenhouse warming on winter cyclone frequencies and strengths, J Climate 8:1447-1452

Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Lambert S.J., 2004: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths in transient enhanced greenhouse warming simulations using two coupled climate models. Atmos Ocean 42:173 181

Lambert, S.J., and J.C. Fyfe, 2006: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim. Dyn., 26, 713728.

Leckebusch, G.C., and U. Ulbrich, 2004: On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change. Global Planet. Change, 44, 181193.

Lionello P, Boldrin U, Giorgi F (2008) Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation. Clim Dyn 30:657671

Neu, U., M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

O'Gorman, P.A., 2010, Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1011547107

Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M, Zacharias S (2007c) Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPIOM1 GCM. Clim Dyn 29:195210

Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G.C. and J.G. Pinto (2009), Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 96, Numbers 1-2 / April, 2009 DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8

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101. NRAamy 7:37 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Jerry! :) Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

102. SQUAWK 7:39 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
AMY!!!!! Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

103. Levi32 7:40 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Hey Amy :) Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

104. NativeSun 7:42 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Alex - Strong TS-Cat.1 Bonnie - Cat.2 Colin - Cat.2 Danielle - Cat. 3 Fiona - Cat. 3 Gaston - Cat.4 Hermine - Cat. 5 Igor - Cat 5 Julia - Cat. 3 Karl -Cat. 2 Lisa - Cat. 1 Matthew - Cat. 2 Nicole - Cat 3 Otto- TS Paula - Cat. 4 Richard - Strong TS 18 storms, 8 majors, 13-14 hurricanes Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter Action Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 130

105. jeffs713 7:43 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting tornadodude: its not often that tools are missed haha LOL! Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

106. NRAamy 7:47 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
SQUAWK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

107. tornadodude 7:49 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

108. xcool 7:58 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
:) Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

109. NEwxguy 8:19 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
tdude,if you could push some of that warmth to the east,it would be much appreciated. Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 815 Comments: 13069

110. tornadodude 8:23 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting NEwxguy: tdude,if you could push some of that warmth to the east,it would be much appreciated. haha I'm sure it will come your way eventually Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

111. hcubed 8:31 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Alex - TD Bonnie - TD * Colin - Cat 1 * Danielle - Cat 2 * Predict that these two will be in the ATL basin at same time. Earl - Cat 3 Fiona - Cat 1 (GOM quick storm) Gaston - Cat 2 Sometime after here will be the "Come on, name the thing already" storm (which will be classified after the season ends). Hermine - Cat 4 Labor Day storm Igor - Cat 5 Mexican track storm Julia - Cat 1 Karl - Cat 1 Lisa - Cat 1 Matthew - Cat 3 Nicole - TS Otto - TD STOPPING AT 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 4 major. If you include the usual after season re-class of storms at least one more TS will show up, and will be unnamed. I'll add something else: since the storms must go through the INVEST cycle, I predict a 3:1 ratio of INVESTS to storms (45 invests). Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 285 Comments: 1638

112. Levi32 8:37 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
The CFS forecast has been updated, and it still doesn't look good for the Atlantic hurricane season. The images below show the CFS forecasted SST and precipitation anomalies. The CFS, like the ECMWF, is showing an area of focused heat over the tropical southwest Atlantic, evidenced by the forecasted very warm SSTs in the Caribbean. These warm waters promote upward motion, which lowers surface air pressures, which increases surface convergence (piling up of air). The model is also showing an area of cold water over the NW Atlantic, which promotes subsidence (sinking of air), which supports high surface air pressure, which increases surface divergence (spreading out of air). This same pattern is beginning to show up on the model over the eastern Pacific as it begins to pick up on La Nina, showing colder water in that region, which also promotes subsidence and higher surface pressures. This is a very dangerous situation as it focuses all of the energy over the Caribbean with air rushing away from the areas of high pressure and towards the area of low pressure, causing surface convergence which forces the air to rise, increasing convection over the tropical Atlantic. This in turn reinforces the heat in the atmosphere over the tropics. With La Nina beginning to develop late this summer, this also sets up a corridor of low pressure which directs storms toward the United States. This is because La Nina promotes high pressure over the eastern Pacific, which tends to force tropical waves and storms towards the northwest instead of allowing them passage across Central America into the Pacific. Incoming storms from the eastern Atlantic would also be steered towards the U.S. and Caribbean in this pattern due to the area of high pressure off the SE U.S., promoted by the cold SST anomalies. For comparison, look at the CFS's previous forecast from a month ago (bottom image), and look at how much warmer it was forecasting SSTs to be over the eastern Pacific. The CFS is finally catching on to the dying El Nino. Overall the CFS is now agreeing well with the ECMWF in forecasting a very dangerous pattern for the Caribbean and United States during this upcoming hurricane season. CFS Forecasted SST Anomalies: CFS Forecasted Precipitation Anomalies: Previous CFS Forecasted SST Anomalies from last month: Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

113. jeffs713 8:40 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The CFS forecast has been updated, and it still doesn't look good for the Atlantic hurricane season. The images below show the CFS forecasted SST and precipitation anomalies. The CFS, like the ECMWF, is showing an area of focused heat over the tropical southwest Atlantic, evidenced by the forecasted very warm SSTs in the Caribbean. These warm waters promote upward motion, which lowers surface air pressures, which increases surface convergence (piling up of air). The model is also showing an area of cold water over the NW Atlantic, which promotes subsidence (sinking of air), which supports high surface air pressure, which increases surface divergence (spreading out of air). This same pattern is beginning to show up on the model over the eastern Pacific as it begins to pick up on La Nina, showing colder water in that region, which also promotes subsidence and higher surface pressures. This is a very dangerous situation as it focuses all of the energy over the Caribbean with air rushing away from the areas of high pressure and towards the area of low pressure, causing surface convergence which forces the air to rise, increasing convection over the tropical Atlantic, which in turn reinforces the heat in the atmosphere over the tropics. With La Nina beginning to develop late this summer, this also sets up a corridor of low pressure which directs storms toward the United States. This is because La Nina promotes high pressure over the eastern Pacific, which tends to force tropical waves and storms towards the northwest instead of allowing them passage across Central America into the Pacific. Incoming storms from the eastern Atlantic would also be steered towards the U.S. and Caribbean in this pattern due to the area of high pressure off the SE U.S., promoted by the cold SST anomalies. For comparison, look at the CFS's previous forecast from a month ago (bottom image), and look at how much warmer it was forecasting SSTs to be over the eastern Pacific. The CFS is finally catching on to the dying El Nino. Overall the CFS is now agreeing well with the ECMWF in forecasting a very dangerous pattern for the Caribbean and United States during this upcoming hurricane season. CFS Forecasted SST Anomalies: CFS Forecasted Precipitation Anomalies: Previous CFS Forecasted SST Anomalies from last month: All I can say to that is... :( Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5722

114. Skyepony (Mod) 8:43 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Levi may of got the point but pipelines certainly didn't. Not only has the stratosphere been predicted to cool it has. Haven't seen a month where the stratosphere wasn't top ten coolest in a while. Most months in top 4, Jan was 9th & 7th. We just had the warmest at the surface..I'd bet we will see coldest of one or both of the two stratosphere measurement within 3 months.. The greater instability is in place & getting slowly worse. Occasionally large volcano eruptions cause the stratosphere to warm alot but that lasts for two years. Many times it runs colder than surface is warmer, that difference is said to be in large part a lack of ozone. That's not IPCC there that's NOAA. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

115. hydrus 8:48 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting hcubed: Alex - TD Bonnie - TD * Colin - Cat 1 * Danielle - Cat 2 * Predict that these two will be in the ATL basin at same time. Earl - Cat 3 Fiona - Cat 1 (GOM quick storm) Gaston - Cat 2 Sometime after here will be the "Come on, name the thing already" storm (which will be classified after the season ends). Hermine - Cat 4 Labor Day storm Igor - Cat 5 Mexican track storm Julia - Cat 1 Karl - Cat 1 Lisa - Cat 1 Matthew - Cat 3 Nicole - TS Otto - TD STOPPING AT 15 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 4 major. If you include the usual after season re-class of storms at least one more TS will show up, and will be unnamed. I'll add something else: since the storms must go through the INVEST cycle, I predict a 3:1 ratio of INVESTS to storms (45 invests). If you are right, Dr. Gray will E-Mail you with his resignation. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14243

116. Levi32 8:53 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Skyepony: Levi may of got the point but pipelines certainly didn't. Not only has the stratosphere been predicted to cool it has. Haven't seen a month where the stratosphere wasn't top ten coolest in a while. Most months in top 4, Jan was 9th & 7th. We just had the warmest at the surface..I'd bet we will see coldest of one or both of the two stratosphere measurement within 3 months.. The greater instability is in place & getting slowly worse. Occasionally large volcano eruptions cause the stratosphere to warm alot but that lasts for two years. Many times it runs colder than surface is warmer, that difference is said to be in large part a lack of ozone. That's not IPCC there that's NOAA. Well we will see what happens during the next 30 years. 10 bucks says the opposite trend occurs :) I just hope to goodness they don't start talking about tropoposal collapse....where the Stratospheric inversion breaks down due to a cooling Stratosphere and warming Troposphere. That would make me laugh. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

118. barbamz 9:01 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Strange things in Europe seem to continue ... Good evening from Germany, Barbara Two killed as freak wave hits cruise ship: Spanish rescuers Published: Wednesday March 3, 2010 (afp) A massive wave slammed into a cruise ship carrying almost 2,000 people in the Mediterranean Wednesday, leaving two people dead and six injured, Spain's maritime rescue service said. The freak wave "smashed windows in the lounge area" of the Maltese-flagged Greek Cypriot-owned Louis Majesty, a spokesman for the service told AFP. He said the accident occurred Wednesday evening off the coast of Spain's northeastern Catalonia region as the vessel was en route for the Italian port of Genoa. After the accident the captain rerouted the ship to the Spanish port of Barcelona, where it arrived late Wednesday to evacuate the dead and injured. Police in Greece said one of passengers killed was German and the other was Italian, but gave no further details. They said there were 1,350 passengers and 580 crew on the ship, including the Greek captain. Spanish news reports said five people slightly injured while a 62-year-old woman was in serious condition with her both her legs broken. A spokeswoman for the Barcelona port authority said the vessel had set off from Cartagena in southeast Spain earlier Wednesday. She said it would continue to Genoa after evacuating the victims in Barcelona. The 200-metre-(660-foot)-long, 41,000-tonne Louis Majesty has 732 cabins. Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1573

122. Levi32 9:04 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Also, the CFS is prediciting, with the exception of June and July, a relatively weak A/B High. As of today's forecast, the CFS is projecting the following monthly mean SLP readings for the A/B High: APR: 1023mb MAY: 1021mb JUN: 1024mb JUL: 1026mb AUG: 1024mb SEP: 1022mb OCT: 1016mb NOV: 1016mb Indeed, a weaker Bermuda High shifted westward towards the SE United States spells trouble. We'll have to watch surface pressures over the Atlantic in May and see if they support this kind of pattern developing. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

123. Levi32 9:07 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Right now, my prelinmary projection is 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major...at least one CAT 5 My preliminary numbers from my blog outlook a few days ago are 14/8/4. Hopefully it turns out to be no more than that, but these are dangerous numbers in a summer pattern like the one that could shape up this year. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

124. barbamz 9:10 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Hugh waves triggered by a local tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea? Link Doesn't seem likely to me. No report of severe earthquakes in that region. Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1573

126. tornadofan 9:13 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting barbamz: Hugh waves triggered by a local tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea? Link Doesn't seem likely to me. No report of severe earthquakes in that region. Tsunami's usually only affect coastlines. Looks like the random rogue wave. Member Since: April 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

127. Levi32 9:14 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Those numbers look good too, Levi. I may up mine by June 1st, but I want to see how SST's are going to hold until then, how much TCHP is available by then, and the phase of the QBO. Yeah I'm keeping it conservative too until I see what happens in May. By the way where do you get your data on the current phase of the QBO? It's a fairly new thing to me and the only links I have are papers on the subject. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

128. barbamz 9:17 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting tornadofan: Tsunami's usually only affect coastlines. Looks like the random rogue wave. I agree. Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1573

130. Tropicsweatherpr 9:30 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Go here: Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indicies Go down to QBO.U30.Index and QBO.U50.Index. The data portion gives tha actual values, and the graphic is a time series graph (which is easier at looking at the phase). Negative values indicate an easterly phase, and positive values indicate a westerly phase. Easterly is less favorable for Atlantic Hurricane development than a Westerly phase. Right now, the phase is predominately easterly. Quoting StormW: Also, the CFS is prediciting, with the exception of June and July, a relatively weak A/B High. As of today's forecast, the CFS is projecting the following monthly mean SLP readings for the A/B High: APR: 1023mb MAY: 1021mb JUN: 1024mb JUL: 1026mb AUG: 1024mb SEP: 1022mb OCT: 1016mb NOV: 1016mb StormW,I have the link to CFS but I cant find the part about the Azores/Bermuda Highs. Link Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8101

131. Levi32 9:34 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Go here: Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indicies Go down to QBO.U30.Index and QBO.U50.Index. The data portion gives tha actual values, and the graphic is a time series graph (which is easier at looking at the phase). Negative values indicate an easterly phase, and positive values indicate a westerly phase. Easterly is less favorable for Atlantic Hurricane development than a Westerly phase. Right now, the phase is predominately easterly. Thanks Storm. Interesting that the 2005 hurricane season came just before a peak in the easterly phase of the QBO. 1995 came during a westerly phase. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

134. Skyepony (Mod) 9:46 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Levi~ I'll take that bet:) But without tropoposal collapse how can we have any good cheesy weather disaster movies?? I like your numbers for the up coming season. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29240

135. Levi32 9:46 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Ya...in fact at the peak of 2005, it was in an easterly phase...didn't make sense to me either...until I did some more research. Found out the QBO is basically limited to the equatorial winds. I've seen 2 values given...the QBO lies between 10N;10S...and another one, which went into some detail stated it had an effect from 15N to 15S. Keeping that in mind, look at the 2005 tracking map. Where did most of the storms develop (latitude)? That's an interesting observation. If the QBO does have a significant effect I think it would have to be the 15S to 15N one, due to the rarity of Atlantic storm developments south of 10N. 1995 did have more tracks south of 15N than 2005, especially in the eastern tropical Atlantic: The current trend on the graph looks like we're going into a predominantly easterly phase this summer. Let's hope this dampens the effect of all the focused heat over the deep tropics. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

136. barbamz 9:56 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Giant waves (26 feet) in the Mediterranean weather related. buoy reading 45 mp/h cnn-report-link Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1573

137. Levi32 9:56 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting Skyepony: Levi~ I'll take that bet:) But without tropoposal collapse how can we have any good cheesy weather disaster movies?? I like your numbers for the up coming season. Lol, didn't "The Day After Tomorrow" have some sort of tropoposal collapse? It's been 6 years since I've seen it but I remember something about cold air pouring down into the troposphere out of the stratosphere, which caused a massive polar vortex....lol. That movie started out with Global Warming too. I can't remember how it was supposed to lead to an ice age. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

139. Patrap 10:00 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
"Live without Limits", Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation NOLA Conference 3/10/2010 On behalf of the Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation, it is my pleasure to invite you to Live without Limits, an informational meeting about the Reeve Foundation's Paralysis Resource Center, taking place on Wednesday, March 10th at The Ridgeway in Metairie, Louisiana. The Paralysis Resource Center is a free national resource on paralysis and we hope to spread awareness of our free services with this meeting. We would also like to provide a networking opportunity to all in attendance. We are inviting a cross section of members from the richly diverse Louisiana community. Local organizations such as yours have been a valuable source of strength and empowerment for people with disabilities for many years. And, I feel confident that we can do a better job educating people with disabilities and their caregivers about the various resources available to them when organizations like ours work together. Attached is an invitation to attend our meeting. Please feel free to pass it along to other organizations who you feel would benefit from attending our meeting. If you do plan on attending please RSVP at your earliest convenience by emailing me at Pmehta@christopherreeve.org. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

140. NRAamy 10:00 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
that movie was just awful.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

143. Birthmark 10:03 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Thanks for the blog post, Dr. Masters. The intersection of climate change and weather is quite interesting. As you point out, the word "uncertain" plays a key role right now. There's much to learn. I've seen some statements here by posters that I think need addressing: 1. The IPCC has NO climate models. The climate models used by the IPCC are all run by other entities. 2. The IPCC science appears to be relatively flawless. WG1 is the portion of the IPCC concerned with the science. I am unaware of even one valid complaint about the information in WG1. 3. There were two mistakes in IPCC WG2 -which is unsurprising to me since there is so little peer-reviewed material for the subject matter of WG2 or WG3. One of the mistakes appears to be a simple wrong citation; correct author, wrong paper. The other is, of course, the Himalayan Glacier statement. Neither is cause for grave concern, though they aren't terribly important errors. Care should be taken to eliminate such errors, but throwing out the whole IPCC is rash and uncalled for. 4. The IPCC has been largely conservative in its statements. A quick read of the sea-level rise and glacial melt portions will show this except for the Himalayan glaciers, of course. Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404

144. NRAamy 10:04 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Skeptical..."2012" was worse...lame lame lame....John Cusack just needed a paycheck.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

145. Levi32 10:05 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: Ya...I would have to go with 15;15S...in fact, when ya look at it, the QBO may just have more of an effect on Cape Verde systems south of 15N, as well as aiding/hindering intensity of those. As far as the phase...I don't know...looking at the graph, (bottom) I think it's close to starting back up toward positive numbers. That may be. It doesn't look like it would get back up to 0 before the last couple months of the season though. It appears to be a slightly slower cycle (less steep slope downward) similar to the one between 1999 and 2001, which took 2 years from ridge to valley instead of the usual 12-15 months. This cycle has already been heading down for 17-18 months and hasn't reached the average minimum value yet. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25441

149. Tropicsweatherpr 10:10 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Quoting StormW: That's because it's a little different critter. The CFS I'm referring to is off the accuweather pro site models page. CFS being Climate Forecast Ssystem. It shows the actual mean pressure and position of the A/B High. Thanks W for the clarification. Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8101

150. NRAamy 10:16 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
and enjoyed watching the world end. Skeptical...move to Calif and you can watch it on a daily basis.... Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

151. GeoffreyWPB 10:18 PM GMT on March 03, 2010
Could be some record-low temps. for the area the next few days: Miami NWS HERE ARE THE FORECAST LOWS AND RECORD LOWS FOR FRI MARCH 5TH: CITIES FORECAST LOWS RECORD LOWS MIAMI 43 44 - 1930 FORT LAUDERDALE 42 35 - 1930 WEST PALM BEACH 37 40 - 1930 NAPLES 45 36 - 1971 Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9107

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