Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The future of intense winter storms

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:43 PM GMT on March 03, 2010

When Winter Storm Xynthia powered ashore over Europe last weekend, it brought hurricane-force wind gusts, flooding rains, and a 1-meter storm surge topped by 8-meter high battering waves that overwhelmed sea walls in France, killing scores of people. Today, AIR Worldwide estimated the insured damage from the storm at $1.5 - $3 billion. Intense extratropical cyclones like Xynthia, with central pressures below 970 mb, make up less than 20% of all wintertime cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere, but cause the vast majority of the devastation and loss of life. The ten deadliest winter storms to hit Europe over the past 60 years all had minimum pressures lower than 970 mb. The situation is similar for North America, though the storms generally do not get as intense as their European counterparts (the four major Nor'easters this winter have had central pressures of 968, 969, 978, and 972 mb). It is important, then, to ask if these strongest of the strong storms are changing in frequency, and whether a future warmer world will have more or less of these storms.

Figure 1. Winter Storm Xynthia, as captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite. Image was acquired in two separate overpasses on February 27, 2010. MODIS captured the eastern half of the image around 10:50 UTC, and the western half about 12:30 UTC. Forming a giant comma shape, clouds stretch from the Atlantic Ocean to northern Italy. Xynthia peaked in intensity at 18 UTC February 27, with a central pressure of 966 mb. Image credit: NASA.

Have intense Northern Hemisphere winter storms increased in number?
Most of the material for this post comes from three sources: the 2007 IPCC report, a 2009 review titled, Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, and Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). An increasing number of intense winter storms in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades of the 20th century was a common theme of many of the studies reviewed. However, the studies used different measures as to what constitutes an "intense" storm, and have some disagreement on which areas of the globe are seeing more intense storms. A 1996 study by Canadian researcher Steven Lambert (Figure 3) found a marked increase in intense wintertime cyclones (central pressure less than 970 mb) in the latter part of the 20th century. Most of this increase occurred in the Pacific Ocean. Other studies (Geng and Sugi, 2001, and Paciorek et al., 2002) found an increase in intense winter storms over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific in the latter part of the 20th century. Benestad and Chen(2006) found an increase in the number of intense storms over the Nordic countries over the period 1955-1994, but no trend in the western parts of the North Atlantic. Gulev et al. (2001) found a small increase in the number of intense North Pacific storms (core pressure below 980 mb), a large increase in the Arctic, but a small decrease in the Atlantic. McCabe et al. 2001 found an increase at both mid-latitudes and high latitudes, particularly in the Arctic. Hirsch et al. (2001) found that the number of intense Nor'easters along the U.S. East Coast (storms with winds > 52 mph) stayed roughly constant at three storms per year over the period 1951 - 1997. Over the period 1900 to 1990, the number of strong cyclones (less than 992 mb) in November and December more than doubled over the Great Lakes of North America (Angel and Isard, 1998). With regards to Europe, Lionello et al. conclude, "the bulk of evidence from recent studies mostly supports, or at least does not contradict, the finding of an attenuation of cyclones over the Mediterranean and an intensification over Northern Europe during the second part of the twentieth century".

Figure 2. Trends in strong extratropical cyclones with central pressures less than 980 mb, for the period 1989 - 2009, as estimated using thirteen different methods, M02 - M22, defined in Neu et al., 2012. The error-bars represent the 95% confidence range of the trend estimate. A trend is significant at 5% level if the error-bar does not include zero. Four of the thirteen methods showed a slightly significant downward trend in both summertime and wintertime Northern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during the period. None of the methods showed a statistically significant trend in Southern Hemisphere strong extratropical cyclones during either summer or winter. Image credit: U. Neu, M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

In summary, the best science we have shows that there has not been a statistically significant increase in the number of intense wintertime extratropical storms globally in the past two decades, but there has been and increase in the North Pacific and Arctic. Increased wave heights have been observed along the coasts of Oregon and Washington during this period, adding confidence to the finding of increased intense storm activity. The evidence for an observed increase in intense wintertime cyclones in the North Atlantic is uncertain. In particular, intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. showed no increase in number over the latter part of the 20th century. This analysis is supported by the fact that wintertime wave heights recorded since the mid-1970s by the three buoys along the central U.S. Atlantic coast have shown little change (Komar and Allan, 2007a,b, 2008). However, even though Nor'easters have not been getting stronger, they have been dropping more precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow. Wintertime top 5% heavy precipitation events (both rain and snow) have increased over the Northeast U.S. in recent decades (Groisman et al., 2004), so Nor'easters have been more of a threat to cause flooding problems and heavy snow events. In all portions of the globe, tracks of extratropical storms have shifted poleward in recent decades, in accordance with global warming theory. Note that the historical data base for strong winter storms is in better shape than the data base we are using to try to detect long-term changes in hurricanes. The Ulbrich et al. (2009) review article states:

The IPCC AR4 (cf. Trenberth et al. 2007, p. 312) states that the detection of long-term changes in cyclone measures is hampered by incomplete and changing observing systems. Recent studies found, however, a general reliability of results for cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. There are no sudden shifts in intensities that would indicate inhomogeneities, and also a comparison with cyclone activity estimated from regional surface and radiosonde data (Wang et al. 2006b; Harnik and Chang 2003) confirmed the general reliability of the data".

However, the data is not as good in the Southern Hemisphere, so the finding that intense winter storms are also increasing in that hemisphere must be viewed with caution.

Figure 3. Number of intense winter cyclones with central pressure less than 970 mb in the Northern Hemisphere, North Pacific, and North Atlantic between 1899 - 1991. Image credit: Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Intense winter storms are expected to increase in number
General Circulation Models (GCMs) like the ones used in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report do a very good job simulating how winter storms behave in the current climate, and we can run simulations of the atmosphere with extra greenhouse gases to see how winter storms will behave in the future. The results are very interesting. Global warming is expected to warm the poles more than the equatorial regions. This reduces the difference in temperature between the pole and Equator. Since winter storms form in response to the atmosphere's need to transport heat from the Equator to the poles, this reduced temperature difference reduces the need for winter storms, and thus the models predict fewer storms will form. However, since a warmer world increases the amount of evaporation from the surface and puts more moisture in the air, these future storms drop more precipitation. During the process of creating that precipitation, the water vapor in the storm must condense into liquid or frozen water, liberating "latent heat"--the extra heat that was originally added to the water vapor to evaporate it in the first place. This latent heat intensifies the winter storm, lowering the central pressure and making the winds increase. So, the modeling studies predict a future with fewer total winter storms, but a greater number of intense storms. These intense storms will have more lift, and will thus tend to drop more precipitation--including snow, when we get areas of strong lift in the -15°C preferred snowflake formation region. For completeness' sake, some of the studies that show more intense winter cyclones in a warmer world are Lambert (1995), Boer et al. (1992), Dai et al. (2001), Geng and Sugi (2003), Fyfe (2003), Lambert (2004), Leckebusch and Ulbrich (2004), Lambert and Fyfe (2006), Pinto et al. (2007), and Lionello et al. (2008). A review article be Ulbrich et al. provides a nice summary. However, two studies--Pinto et al. (2007) and Bengtsson et al. 2006--suggest that the more intense winter cyclones will affect only certain preferred regions, namely northwestern Europe and Alaska's Aleutian Islands. At least three other studies also find that northwestern Europe--including the British Isles, the Netherlands, northern France, northern Germany, Denmark and Norway--can expect a significant increase in intense wintertime cyclones in a future warmer world (Lionello et al., 2008; Leckebusch and Ulbrich 2004; and Leckebusch et al., 2006). None of these studies showed a significant increase in the number of intense Nor'easters affecting the Northeast U.S. One interesting new study (O'Gorman, 2010) found that wintertime extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere would increase in intensity by 2100 primarily because the surface would heat up more than the upper air, making the atmosphere more unstable. In summer, the models predict a decrease in extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, these storms were predicted in increase in intensity year-round. The models studied were the 2007 IPCC suite of climate models.

What the IPCC models say
The Lambert and Fyfe (2006) study, titled, "Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise", looked at thirteen models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC Climate Change report. Of these models, eleven simulated an increase in the number and intensity of the most intense cyclones (<970 mb pressure) in the climate expected by 2100. Two of the models did not, so it is fair to say that there is some uncertainty in these results. Nevertheless, the model results are compelling enough that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a scientific advisory board created by the President and Congress, concluded this in their 2009 U.S. Climate Impacts Report: "Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent". The USGRP concluded that an increase of between four and twelve intense wintertime extratropical storms per year could be expected over the Northern Hemisphere by 2100, depending upon the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air (Figure 3). If we assume that the current climate is producing the same number of intense winter storms as it did over the period 1961-2000--about 53--this represents an increase of between 8% and 23% in intense wintertime extratropical storms.

Figure 4. The projected change in intense wintertime extratropical storms with central pressures < 970 mb for the Northern Hemisphere under various emission scenarios. Storms counted occur poleward of 30°N during the 120-day season beginning November 15. A future with relatively low emissions of greenhouse gases (B1 scenario, blue line) is expected to result in an additional four intense extratropical storms per year, while up to twelve additional intense storms per year can be expected in a future with high emissions (red and black lines). Humanity is currently on a high emissions track. Figure was adapted from Lambert and Fyfe (2006), and was taken from Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, a 2009 report from the the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change".

Conclusion
The best science we have suggests that there has not been an increase in intense wintertime extratropical cyclones globally in recent decades, though there has been an increase in the Pacific and Arctic. Intense winter extratropical cyclones are expected to in increase in number and shift northwards in a warming climate, with northwest Europe at significantly higher risk of seeing an increase in intense storms. Research by Barredo (2010) suggests that Europe has not yet seen a significant increase in damaging winter storms, since normalized damages from severe winter storms did not increase between 1970 - 2008.

References
Auer, A.H. Jr. and J.M. White, 1982: The Combined Role of Kinematics, Thermodynamics, and Cloud Physics Associated with Heavy Snowfall Episodes. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60, pp 500-507.

Barredo, J.I., 2010, "No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008," Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 97-104, 2010, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-97-2010

Bengtsson L, Hodges KI, Roeckner E (2006): Storm tracks and climate change. J Clim 19:35183543

Boer GJ, McFarlane NA, Lazare M (1992) Greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated with the CCC second generation general circulation model. J Climate 5:10451077

Dai, A., et al., 2001b: Climates of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Clim., 14, 485519.

Fyfe, J.C., 2003: Extratropical southern hemisphere cyclones: Harbingers of climate change? J. Clim., 16, 28022805.

Geng, Q.Z., and M. Sugi, 2003: Possible change of extratropical cyclone activity due to enhanced greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols - Study with a high-resolution AGCM. J. Clim., 16, 22622274.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007a: Higher waves along U.S. east coast linked to hurricanes. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 88, 301.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2007b: A note on the depiction and analysis of wave-height histograms. Shore & Beach, 75(4), 1- 5.

Komar, P.D. and J.C. Allan, 2008: Increasing hurricane-generated wave heights along the U.S. East coast and their climate controls. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 479-488.

Lambert, S.J., 1995: The effect of enhanced greenhouse warming on winter cyclone frequencies and strengths, J Climate 8:1447-1452

Lambert, S.J., 1996: Intense extratropical Northern Hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 101D, 2131921325.

Lambert S.J., 2004: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths in transient enhanced greenhouse warming simulations using two coupled climate models. Atmos Ocean 42:173 181

Lambert, S.J., and J.C. Fyfe, 2006: Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Clim. Dyn., 26, 713728.

Leckebusch, G.C., and U. Ulbrich, 2004: On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change. Global Planet. Change, 44, 181193.

Lionello P, Boldrin U, Giorgi F (2008) Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation. Clim Dyn 30:657671

Neu, U., M.G. Akperov, N. Bellenbaum, R. Benestad, R. Blender, R. Caballero, A. Cocozza, H.F. Dacre, Y. Feng, K. Fraedrich, J. Grieger, S. Gulev, J. Hanley, T. Hewson, M. Inatsu, K. Keay, S.F. Kew, I. Kindem, G.C. Leckebusch, M.L.R. Liberato, P. Lionello, I.I. Mokhov, J.G. Pinto, C.C. Raible, M. Reale, I. Rudeva, M. Schuster, I. Simmonds, M. Sinclair, M. Sprenger, N.D. Tilinina, I.F. Trigo, S. Ulbrich, U. Ulbrich, X.L. Wang, and H. Wernli, "IMILAST – a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, pp. 120919072158001, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00154.1

O'Gorman, P.A., 2010, Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1011547107

Pinto JG, Ulbrich U, Leckebusch GC, Spangehl T, Reyers M, Zacharias S (2007c) Changes in storm track and cyclone activity in three SRES ensemble experiments with the ECHAM5/MPIOM1 GCM. Clim Dyn 29:195210

Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G.C. and J.G. Pinto (2009), Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 96, Numbers 1-2 / April, 2009 DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8

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401. Patrap 7:40 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Here's a Special Announcement,our own wunderblogger,"sandcrab"..also known as "Butch Loper",retired Emg Mgr for Jackson,County ,Mississippi.has been selected to receive the 2010 National Hurricane Conference Distinguished Service Award. Butch is a good friend and a National asset and inspiration to thousands. His decades of service and Duty to others is unsurpassed and it was Butch Loper who befriended me here in 2006 and Im a better man for knowing him and his wife. Please drop by his blog in the directory and congratulate Butch for this distinguished award. Butch Speaking at Loyola University during the portlight.org 2009 NOLA relief Walk. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

402. biff4ugo 7:40 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Thanks very much! Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 107 Comments: 1188

403. tornadodude 7:44 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Might have been a cold winter if it's March and this feels awesome: Lafayette, Purdue University Airport Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623 Last Update on Mar 4, 1:54 pm EST Partly Cloudy 43 °F (6 °C) Humidity: 43 % Wind Speed: NW 7 MPH Barometer: 30.14" (1021.1 mb) Dewpoint: 22 °F (-6 °C) Wind Chill: 39 °F (4 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

404. tornadodude 7:46 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

405. floridafisherman 7:54 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Patrap #364 about the star photograph. i know you posted that the streaks were from the earth shaking. but i would have to disagree. im pretty sure that the streaks are from the natural rotation of the earth. any photograph of space which uses long exposure will show this effect. longer exposure and close proximity to the equator (where the earth moves faster) will produce longer streaks with stars and planets. Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

406. StormChaser81 7:56 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting floridafisherman: Patrap #364 about the star photograph. i know you posted that the streaks were from the earth shaking. but i would have to disagree. im pretty sure that the streaks are from the natural rotation of the earth. any photograph of space which uses long exposure will show this effect. longer exposure and close proximity to the equator (where the earth moves faster) will produce longer streaks with stars and planets. But if they was a short exposure it would be the quake shaking the telescope. Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

407. tornadodude 7:58 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81: But if they was a short exposure it would be the quake shaking the telescope. didnt it say that it was only like an 88 second exposure time? Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

408. StormChaser81 8:02 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting tornadodude: didnt it say that it was only like an 88 second exposure time? That's actually kind of long. lol Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

409. floridafisherman 8:03 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
an exposure that is almost 1 1/2 minutes long isnt exactly a short exposure though. and unless the earth shook in only 1 direction, what can explain the uniform streaks all headed in one direction? if the shaking caused the streaks, the stars would look like enlarged balls (since the shaking would be in multiple directions and axis). however, the streaks are all headed in one direction and i really do believe its just a normal photograph that just shows light reacting to the normal rotation of the earth Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

410. tornadodude 8:04 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
This one is 60 minutes link Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

411. tornadodude 8:07 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting floridafisherman: an exposure that is almost 1 1/2 minutes long isnt exactly a short exposure though. and unless the earth shook in only 1 direction, what can explain the uniform streaks all headed in one direction? if the shaking caused the streaks, the stars would look like enlarged balls (since the shaking would be in multiple directions and axis). however, the streaks are all headed in one direction and i really do believe its just a normal photograph that just shows light reacting to the normal rotation of the earth yeah I have to agree with that Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

412. HurricaneHunterGal 8:09 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting floridafisherman: an exposure that is almost 1 1/2 minutes long isnt exactly a short exposure though. and unless the earth shook in only 1 direction, what can explain the uniform streaks all headed in one direction? if the shaking caused the streaks, the stars would look like enlarged balls (since the shaking would be in multiple directions and axis). however, the streaks are all headed in one direction and i really do believe its just a normal photograph that just shows light reacting to the normal rotation of the earth That is exactly what I thoguht when I saw the picture for the first time-- they are all in the same "streaked" direction, which indicates the earth's rotation, not the earthquake. Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

413. floridafisherman 8:12 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
i used to own a large Meade refractor telescope and the stars and planets would drift out of scope view every couple minutes because of earth rotation. u learned to set up your telescope based on your current latitude and the axis of earth rotation. that way, you only have to turn one handle and the telescope would be able to follow a particular star or planet. Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

416. Seastep 8:17 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
For the afternooners: Mea Culpa Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

417. StormChaser81 8:18 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting floridafisherman: i used to own a large Meade refractor telescope and the stars and planets would drift out of scope view every couple minutes because of earth rotation. u learned to set up your telescope based on your current latitude and the axis of earth rotation. that way, you only have to turn one handle and the telescope would be able to follow a particular star or planet. Nice Snook Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

419. floridafisherman 8:25 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Nice Snook thanks. believe it or not, i caught this one in total freshwater about 25 miles inland in a local canal. measured out at 33 3/4 inches long and 16 lbs on the boca grip. Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 514

420. Levi32 8:30 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
WindSAT image from last night (new image will be out in a few hours) shows the Brazilian low already had a closed, well-defined circulation with 35-40 knot winds in the NE quadrant. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

421. StormChaser81 8:32 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting floridafisherman: Nice Snook thanks. believe it or not, i caught this one in total freshwater about 25 miles inland in a local canal. measured out at 33 3/4 inches long and 16 lbs on the boca grip. Ya Snook's and red fish will travel far into fresh water escaping cold and looking for food. Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

422. drg0dOwnCountry 8:46 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1951

423. dayton 8:47 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Isn't there suppose to be a big severe weather outbreak this next week? Can someone provide details as to what is expected, where it is expected, and how bad it is expected to be. Member Since: July 16, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 29

424. tornadodude 8:47 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry: Didnt watch, but those are high gas prices, where are they? Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

425. Levi32 8:48 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
After looking more closely at model maps it appears the reason the CMC develops the low off of Brazil, actually into a full-blown hurricane by 6 days, is because it doesn't amplify the shortwave near as much as the GFS does, but instead just keeps it cut off near Uruguay, eventually becoming a weak cut-off upper low. This would actually serve to ventilate the area in which the low is developing, instead of inflicting wind shear on the storm like the GFS predicts. It will be interesting to see which way events decide to unfold over the next few days. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

426. drg0dOwnCountry 8:49 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Climate scientists have long warned that global warming could unlock vast stores of the greenhouse gas methane that are frozen into the Arctic permafrost, setting off potentially significant increases in global warming. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/05/science/earth/05methane.html Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 1951

427. tornadodude 8:49 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting dayton: Isn't there suppose to be a big severe weather outbreak this next week? Can someone provide details as to what is expected, where it is expected, and how bad it is expected to be. maybe monday and tuesday in the south, not sure on details Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

429. Levi32 8:52 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
The NOGAPS initializes the warm-core low but handles it poorly and loses it after 3 days without moving it much. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

430. Seastep 8:53 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: Thats the European model. That is there way. Yeah, assuming it's Germany. Which means Euros, which means EUR5.00 = USD6.80. Ouch! Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

431. SouthDadeFish 8:54 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting Levi32: The NOGAPS initializes the warm-core low but handles it poorly and loses it after 3 days without moving it much. Do you have a satellite shot of it? Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418

432. StormChaser81 8:55 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting Seastep: Yeah, assuming it's Germany. Which means Euros, which means EUR5.00 = USD6.80. Ouch! It's been that price for awhile over there. Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315

433. toontown 8:56 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
"Conclusion The best science we have suggests that there has been an increase in intense wintertime extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades, most notably in the Pacific and Arctic. These intense cyclones are expected to in increase in number and shift northwards in a warming climate, with northwest Europe at significantly higher risk of seeing an increase in intense storms." If I understand the thermodynamics correctly storm driving energy is roughly the difference between the temperature of two mixing air masses. So there are two ways to get more energy releases (storms), 1 - increase the temperature of the warm air mass (as projected above) or 2 - decrease the temperature of the cold air mass - as is currently being seen in the European chill of 2010. Right, wrong, maybe, comments ??? Member Since: December 7, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

435. tornadodude 8:59 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
I'm fine with my 2.55 a gallon. was 2.19 a month ago Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

436. Levi32 9:02 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting SouthDadeFish: Do you have a satellite shot of it? I posted a couple on the last page but I'm constructing a gif animation right now that I will post shortly. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

437. Patrap 9:03 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Tune in now and join us in chat too The Daily Downpour Resumes Thursday! Posted by: shauntanner, 11:50 AM CST on March 04, 2010 You can listen to the Weather Underground Broadcast Network by going to the homepage. To call in to the show, please call (415) 983-2634. We all hope you will join us for the second installment of The Daily Downpour on the Weather Underground Broadcast Network. The network has been developed to provide the Weather Underground community with the most up-to-date weather information on the web and will be hosted by Weather Underground meteorologists. The Daily Downpour will begin at 4:00 p.m. Eastern, 1 p.m. Pacific and will last for two hours. It is our goal to provide a schedule, informative show that will also teach you about the atmosphere that is so important to all of us. No other weather provider gives you access to its meteorologists as call-ins are welcome during the broadcast and the schedule is as follows: All times are Eastern 4:00-4:10: National Forecast 4:10-4:20: Regional Forecast 4:20-4:40: Dr. Masters Blog Recap 4:40-4:50: International Forecast 4:50-5:00: Member Profile with Blizzard92 5:00-5:10: National Forecast 5:10-5:20: Regional Forecast 5:20-5:30: Learning Corner about Radiation Budget 5:30-6:00: The Weather Show with Shaun and Tim (call ins welcome) Please note that we do appreciate feedback and will be monitoring the chat room during the show. It is our hope that this network flourishes with your help and will become a force for weather information on the web. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

438. Seastep 9:06 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting Skepticall: Exactly and its for a liter not gallon. It could get worse here. That can't be right, can it? That's $25.74/gallon Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3406

439. Patrap 9:08 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81: But if they was a short exposure it would be the quake shaking the telescope. Exactly..Ive been doing Astro photography since 97 and the Streaks are wobbled and that only can occur if the Tripod and Scope or Cam is shaking... So the Wiggles are from the aftershocks occurring and one was as the Shot was taken. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

440. Patrap 9:11 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
TREMBLING EARTH, WOBBLY STARS: In Chile, astronomers know the ground is still shaking. They can see it in the stars. Colin Legg reports from the Andes east of Santiago: "I made this 88-second exposure on Sunday morning, Feb. 28th, less than 24 hours after the big 8.8-magnitude quake. It records the movement of the Earth in the star trails during an earth tremor." Earthquake experts say the shaking will continue for months. Indeed, in the days after the "Big One", Chilean seismometers have recorded more than ten aftershocks in the range 6th to 7th magnitude, and more than two hundred aftershocks stronger than 4th magnitude. A tip for southern astrophotographers: Keep your exposure times short. The stars over Chile could be wobbling for some time to come. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

441. PcolaDan 9:14 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting tornadodude: Didnt watch, but those are high gas prices, where are they? Since it says "se pay" on the left and guessing it is "please pay" I would say this is in US, probably in California or the Northeast at the height of gas prices. Gas has never been 4.85 per liter in Europe. The highest it has been is around the 9-10 per gallon, which comes out to about 2+ per liter. Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

442. bappit 9:14 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Beautiful day here in Houston. Gawd, it's gorgeous. 67 F. Sunshine. Best thing is the wind died down. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4387

443. tornadodude 9:17 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan: Since it says "se pay" on the left and guessing it is "please pay" I would say this is in US, probably in California or the Northeast at the height of gas prices. Gas has never been 4.85 per liter in Europe. The highest it has been is around the 9-10 per gallon, which comes out to about 2+ per liter. yeah Im guessing so too Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

444. bappit 9:17 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
#440 Nice pic. Yeah, the earth is definitely shaking there. There's probably rotation, too, but that would leave precise little marks of light in the image. Those stars are blurry. Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4387

445. Levi32 9:18 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Here is a visible animation from sunrise to sunset today, with the latest image being 1 hour old now. The low is hard to see, but the presence of a circulation just off the Brazilian coast was confirmed by WindSat last night. Moderate westerly wind shear is contributing to disorganization of the system and making it hard to see. However, you can clearly see the convergence zone along 20S, near center-right of the image. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

446. transitzone 9:18 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting floridafisherman: an exposure that is almost 1 1/2 minutes long isnt exactly a short exposure though. and unless the earth shook in only 1 direction, what can explain the uniform streaks all headed in one direction? if the shaking caused the streaks, the stars would look like enlarged balls (since the shaking would be in multiple directions and axis). however, the streaks are all headed in one direction and i really do believe its just a normal photograph that just shows light reacting to the normal rotation of the earth In a normal long exposure the star tracks will be smooth and are produced by Earth's rotation. In this pic the tracks are jagged, which is the Earth shaking superimposed on the rotation Member Since: March 22, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 55

447. Patrap 9:20 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Quoting bappit: #440 Nice pic. Yeah, the earth is definitely shaking there. There's probably rotation, too, but that would leave precise little marks of light in the image. Those stars are blurry. Anytime one shoots a North Pole Centered image or Polaris,..if you expose for more than 26-30 secs,one will get Star Streaks,,clean smooth ones. When the Stars all show a wiggles..its the Ground Moving. I've had many a fine shot ruined by even Auto traffic sending P waves thru the Scope and mount. One only get Star Arcs with a Polaris Centered Image.. Astronomy today has plenty of info on How to shoot the Sky. Check it out. Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

449. LowerCal 9:28 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
Maybe the image with a magnified inset of the wobbly star trails will clarify matters. Member Since: July 26, 2006 Posts: 58 Comments: 8994

450. PcolaDan 9:33 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
This is cool. From atlasobscura.com "This five-story, blood-red waterfall pours very slowly out of the Taylor Glacier in Antarctica's McMurdo Dry Valleys. When geologists first discovered the frozen waterfall in 1911, they thought the red color came from algae, but its true nature turned out to be much more spectacular. Roughly 2 million years ago, the Taylor Glacier sealed beneath it a small body of water which contained an ancient community of microbes. Trapped below a thick layer of ice, they have remained there ever since, isolated inside a natural time capsule. Evolving independently of the rest of the living world, these microbes exist without heat, light, or oxygen, and are essentially the definition of "primordial ooze." The trapped lake has very high salinity and is rich in iron, which gives the waterfall its red color. A fissure in the glacier allows the subglacial lake to flow out, forming the falls without contaminating the ecosystem within. The existence of the Blood Falls ecosystem shows that life is indeed possible in the most extreme of conditions. Life could perhaps exist on other planets with similar environments and similar bodies of frozen water - notably Mars and Jupiter's moon Europa. But regardless of extraterrestrial life, the earth's Blood Falls are a wonder to behold both visually, and scientifically." Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

451. NRAamy 9:37 PM GMT on March 04, 2010
gross!!!!! Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937

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