The extremely wet and windy Nor'easter that plowed across the northern tier of states has left moderate to major flooding in its wake over both the Midwest and Northeast. In the Northeast, the storm dropped more than five inches of rain in New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and moderate to major flooding is occurring in these states. Flooding was particularly severe in Rhode Island on the Pawtuxet River in Cranston, where the river crested a record six feet over flood stage, forcing evacuations. Major flooding was also occurring in New Jersey, where the Passaic River at Little Falls is cresting at five feet over flood stage.
In the Midwest, snow melt and heavy rains have swollen the Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota to near flood stage, and the river is expected to crest two feet above major flood stage by Sunday morning, and one foot above one of the permanent dikes on the river. In Fargo, ND, the Red River is expected to crest Saturday at 38 feet, three feet below the record of 41 feet set last year. Many rivers in Iowa are in flood and expected to crest above major flood stage on Thursday or Friday this week, including the Des Moines River in northern Iowa. In Des Moines, flooding on the Des Moines River is expected to be moderate, but a levee that failed in the floods of 1993 and 2008 is leaking, and residents of the area are evacuating, according to media reports.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation for the seven day period ending at 8am EDT Monday March 15, 2010. Image credit: NOAA.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas roars through Fiji Islands
Tropical Cyclone Tomas roared through the eastern portion of the Fiji Islands as a major Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds yesterday. Tomas sideswiped the two largest islands in the chain, destroying 50 buildings, causing extensive power outages, and claiming one life. The cyclone made a direct hit on several of the smaller islands to the east of the main islands, and the extent of damage on these islands is unknown, but undoubtedly very heavy.
Tropical Cyclone Ului weakens, may threaten Australia
The first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year, Tropical Cyclone Uliu, has weakened from its impressive peak as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds to a low-end Category 4 storm with 132 mph winds. Ului is over the open waters of the South Pacific, east of Australia, and is projected to significantly decay as the week progresses, due to high wind shear. Ului may be a threat to the Queensland coast of Australia by the end of the week, but should be at tropical storm strength by then.
Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Ului (left) and Tropical Cyclone Tomas (right). Over the Solomon Islands, Tropical Cyclone Ului had maximum sustained winds of 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour, 150 miles per hour) and gusts up to 160 knots (300 km/hr, 180 mph). Over Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Tomas had maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (215 km/hr, 132 mph) and gusts up to 140 knots (260 km/hr, 160 mph). The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites captured both storms in multiple passes over the South Pacific on March 15, 2010, local time. The majority of the image is from the morning of March 15 (late March 14, UTC time) as seen by MODIS on the Terra satellite, with the right portion of the image having been acquired earliest. The wedge-shaped area right of center is from Aqua MODIS, and it was taken in the early afternoon of March 15 (local time). Image credit: NASA.
Portlight looks to build permanent shelters in Haiti
On February 26th, torrential rains brought more than five feet (1.5 m) of flood water into the streets in the coastal city of Les Cayes, Haiti, an area unscathed by the massive January 2010 earthquake. Eleven people were killed during this storm, with the rainy season still two months away. This deadly flood serves as a reminder that the people of Haiti are highly vulnerable to disastrous flooding during this year's rainy season. A vast number of the survivors are living in "tent" cities where most of the "tents" are really nothing more than bed sheets draped over ropes and sticks; the potential for a second humanitarian disaster is significant. With this in mind, Portlight.org has been exploring fast, inexpensive methods of providing solid, permanent, safe shelter for survivors of the earthquake. They have found a number of groups looking at using shipping containers for this purpose. Shipping containers are steel-reinforced boxes used for shipping goods overseas. Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, Richard Lumarque, has identified an engineer that has come up with a number of designs for converting these containers into dormitories, offices, medical facilities and individual homes; his plan for a dormitory container is below. Portlight is looking to help with this effort; please visit the Portlight.org web site to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.
Figure 3. A proposed design for a simple dormitory that can accommodate twelve people, built from a shipping container.
I'll have a new post on Wednesday or Thursday.
Jeff Masters
2010 NorEaster Flood in Manville, NJ
Small bridge in Haddonfield flooded at Cooper River along Kings Highway on 3/13/10
Lower Berkshire Valley Rd.
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Hope everyone is well.
Unfortunatly deaths have also happened.
Folks with portable generators please listen...
!!!DO NOT STORE A RUNNING UNIT IN YOUR GARAGE!!!
Carbon Monoxide poisioning is a silent killer. Please dont be a victim. Leave the unit outdoors away from windows and doors. If your worring about it being stolen, chain it up.
I hope everyone there is ok
Now we have Ului still out there and latest indications are that it could make landfall in Australia over the weekend.
Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 3 to 7 days
Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days
— non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices
— foods for infants or the elderly
— snack foods
— non-electric can opener
— cooking tools / fuel
— paper plates / plastic utensils
Blankets / Pillows, etc.
Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes
First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs
Special Items - for babies and the elderly
Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes
Flashlight / Batteries
Radio - Battery operated and NOAA weather radio
Telephones - Fully charged cell phone with extra battery and a traditional (not cordless) telephone set
Cash (with some small bills) and Credit Cards - Banks and ATMs may not be available for extended periods
Keys
Toys, Books and Games
Important documents - in a waterproof container or watertight resealable plastic bag
— insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security card, etc.
Tools - keep a set with you during the storm
Vehicle fuel tanks filled
Pet care items
— proper identification / immunization records / medications
— ample supply of food and water
— a carrier or cage
— muzzle and leash
Supplies Kit
Hi Tampa spin has one going to. check out his blog
Thanks to Jeff Masters and the wunderground for keeping our working ideas in the Light,here.
Haiti low on hurricane-proof shelters
Last Updated: Tuesday, March 16, 2010 | 8:12 AM ET Comments8Recommend6
CBC News
The Red Cross is warning it won't have enough hurricane-proof shelters for earthquake-shattered Haiti by the time storm season commences.
So far, only about half of the 1.3 million Haitians left homeless by the Jan. 12 magnitude-7.0 earthquake have received emergency shelters, a Red Cross official said Tuesday.
However, Pablo Medina said those shelters — which include tents, tarpaulins and wood — won't be able to resist hurricanes.
He said aid workers plan to build storm-resistant common shelters for people to take refuge.
Hurricane season in the region usually begins in June.
On Sunday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said shelter provision was running behind schedule in Haiti, and he urged more efficient distribution of shelters.
The earthquake killed an estimated 200,000 people.
WASHINGTON In a surprising discovery about where higher life can thrive, scientists for the first time found a shrimp-like creature and a jellyfish frolicking beneath a massive Antarctic ice sheet.
Six hundred feet below the ice where no light shines, scientists had figured nothing much more than a few microbes could exist.
That's why a NASA team was surprised when they lowered a video camera to get the first long look at the underbelly of an ice sheet in Antarctica. A curious shrimp-like creature came swimming by and then parked itself on the camera's cable. Scientists also pulled up a tentacle they believe came from a foot-long jellyfish.
"We were operating on the presumption that nothing's there," said NASA ice scientist Robert Bindschadler, who will be presenting the initial findings and a video at an American Geophysical Union meeting Wednesday. "It was a shrimp you'd enjoy having on your plate."
"We were just gaga over it," he said of the 3-inch-long, orange critter starring in their two-minute video. Technically, it's not a shrimp. It's a Lyssianasid amphipod, which is distantly related to shrimp.
The video is likely to inspire experts to rethink what they know about life in harsh environments. And it has scientists musing that if shrimp-like creatures can frolic below 600 feet of Antarctic ice in subfreezing dark water, what about other hostile places? What about Europa, a frozen moon of Jupiter?
"They are looking at the equivalent of a drop of water in a swimming pool that you would expect nothing to be living in and they found not one animal but two," said biologist Stacy Kim of the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories in California, who joined the NASA team later. "We have no idea what's going on down there."
Microbiologist Cynan Ellis-Evans of the British Antarctic Survey called the finding intriguing.
"This is a first for the sub-glacial environment with that level of sophistication," Ellis-Evans said. He said there have been findings somewhat similar, showing complex life in retreating ice shelves, but nothing quite directly under the ice like this.
Are the shipping containers being converted to dormitories considered "hurricane proof"?
Well,,considering the alternative they are.
And they will be staked down to prevent any wind blown rollovers as well.
No structure other than reinforced concrete and steel are Storm Proof,and with the numbers involved,thats not a reality in Haiti unfortunately.
Very true.
One addition that is easily done to make them more hurricane-resistant is to also build up a berm 3-feet high or so up the sides of the containers, to add a point of resistance to winds. (or, if a concrete surface is available for placement, bolt the containers into the concrete)
We will have a install protocol that will be attached to these Structures>
Great idea Portlight!! Hopefully you can get this done. great way to get shelters up quickly, safely, and effectively.
Cool. I'm only adding my thoughts since I am very familiar with containers (comes with my business, for those not in-the-know), and with these kind of innovations, all relevant knowledge helps. :)
I remember you speaking of that when we met a year ago Jeff.
All input here is welcomed.
I agree, shipping containers are a VERY sturdy structure. I work for a very large steamship line, and have seen containers survive all kinds of things without losing their integrity. Then again, I have seen containers crushed, dented, and blown over, too. Its safe to say I've seen both sides of the coin. With people living in them, and in a hurricane-prone area such as Haiti, one can never be "too careful". If these work out as well as we expect, it is entirely possible that this innovation could spread and become a major factor in the long-term recovery of the Haitian people.
Note how high the Structures are.
These safe House are made from reinforced Shipping Containers as well.
So the idea has some background in practical apps.
'Safe houses' guard Louisiana water workers
how's everyone doing?
Link
Ului has strengthened some overnight, and is now a 110-knot (205kmh) Cat 3. Animated water-vapor satellite imagery shows that Ului's CDO has become more symmetric, but it also shows the continued push of dry air into her eastern side, courtesy of a sub-equatorial ridge directly to her east. The northerly flow aloft on the western side of this ridge is cutting off nearly all outflow on Ului's eastern side, and at the same time jamming mid-level dry air into Ului's circulation. This is what has kept Ului so weak and disorganized over the last 3 days. With Ului's slow progress to the west over the last couple days, she has given herself a little bit more breathing room, which has allowed convection to fill in some east of the eye. The latest microwave imagery, seen below, shows that the eastern side is no longer completely empty of rain bands, but there is still dry air in the core that is disrupting eyewall formation on the southeast side. This will likely continue to be a problem for the next 24-48 hours as long as Ului is in close proximity to the sub-equatorial ridge, and I don't expect any significant strength changes during that time, but fluctuations are likely.
Ului has now turned to the south towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper trough currently moving north of New Zealand. Ului continues to be in no hurry, however, as steering currents in the area remain weak. A slow southerly motion with perhaps a slight easterly component will continue over the next 48 hours as the trough passes by to the south. By the time Ului makes it to about 17S, the trough will be moving off to the east, and the subtropical ridge will be allowed to build back in south of Ului. This will turn her towards the southwest and accelerate her towards the Australian coast of Queensland, eventually taking a west to WSW trajectory.
I expect landfall to take place near Mackay, Queensland in 72-84 hours, Friday morning local time. Dr. Masters and the JTWC foresee significant weakening of Ului before landfall due to high wind shear, with the JTWC forecasting a Cat 1, and Dr. Masters believes she will only be a tropical storm at landfall. I disagree, as the shear forecast makes little sense here. Once the subtropical ridge builds back in to steer Ului westward, the strong westerlies within the subtropical jet will be pushed south all the way to 30S. I don't see westerly shear being a problem if Ului will not be recurving into them. What will weaken Ului is a fairly rapid drop-off in ocean heat content at about 18S, shown below. However, along Ului's likely path, SSTs remain around 27-28C, with a fairly deep 26C isotherm. This may not support a major cyclone, but I do think Ului will be able to hold onto Category 2 status. My forecast is for Ului to be a 90-knot (167kmh) Cat 2 at landfall, which is still capable of doing significant damage to the Australian coast. I hope residents in the area of Mackay, Queensland are getting prepared.
We shall see what happens!
Latest IR Satellite Image:
^^Click Image for Loop^^
Latest Microwave Pass by TRMM Satellite:
Current Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:
Current SSTs:
Morning 101, yeah hopefully it won't be too big of a deal for Australia. I can't figure out why tropical forecast offices are so obsessed with shear sometimes. Shear has not and will continue to not be a significant problem for Ului.
What I find fascinating is this is the South Pacifics' version of a "Cape Verde" type storm
That is an EXCELLENT idea, especially considering the aftermath of Katrina. That act alone will save many when the next storm visits NOLA.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/03/study-link-found-between-hurricane s-in-atlantic--pacific-oceans/1
"Based on data that goes back to the late 1940s, the researchers found that when tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin increases, tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific basin decreases, and vice versa.
"This implies that the seasonal hurricane outlook may be improved by considering the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific together," the authors wrote in the paper. Thus, if the signals appear favorable for a weak year in one basin, then it follows that the other basin should have a more active season."
Published in Eos: http://www.agu.org/pubs/eos-news/
(Why, oh why did I let my AGU membership lapse? Eos is free for any member.)
Well sort of lol. In terms of latitude, longitude, and the shape of the Australian coastline, Ului is the equivalent of a major hurricane developing SE of Puerto Rico, moving west and then curving north over eastern Hispaniola, then curving back to the west over the Bahamas and hitting south Florida. That's the closest analogy in terms of an Atlantic storm.
yea I didnt notice that it really only will move 20 degrees of longitude total lol
Right...yeah...we've known that for a loooong time lol.
Hey Atmo, I remember reading something like this back in the 1950' when I was in school. Good bit of information though.
Also the live chat brings a lot as well.
The Daily Downpour Schedule for Tuesday!
Posted by: shauntanner, 11:51 AM CDT on March 16, 2010
Some rare things have happened in the world of weather since The Daily Downpour last broadcast, including an interesting south Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclone. We will also discuss this morning's aftershocks in Chile and other important weather topics. The Daily Downpour begins at 4 p.m. Eastern and can be listened to by going to the homepage.
Here is the schedule for today:
All times are in Eastern
4:00-4:10: National Forecast
4:10-4:20: Dr. Masters Blog Recap
4:20-4:30: Member profile charlesimages
4:30-5:00: The Weather Show with Shaun and Tim
Please join us. We promise you will learn something!
Nobody really knows its all speculation. Nothing is written in stone. There looking at patterns and past events to get a feel of what the upcoming hurricane season could bring.
Just because two of the more weather knowledgeable people say something doesnt mean its going to happen that way.
NHC, NWS, NOAA are wrong all the time.
Smartest users, That's funny. If your not these two people your dumb and you get your weather from licking your fingers and sticking it up in the air. lol
Is he not entitled to his own opinion? And no shove to drak or StormW, but I guarantee one or both of them wouldn't say that they were the "smartest people on the blog" ..
March 29-April 2 * Hilton Orlando, Orlando, Florida
Purpose of the Conference
The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.
To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:
* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.
* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.
* New ideas being tested or considered.
* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.
* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
:)
Link
I agree, but isn't it a fair argument to suggest that the modeling could be wrong? Not saying I disagree, but it atleast makes his statements less "unjustified" and hardly "ridiculous" ;)
You said a key word in your quote. "Model"
A Model is not reality and can change very quickly. Model do not show real life, because real life is constantly changing. What ever data you put into a model the data would have already changed by the time you run the model, making the model not reality.
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