Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Gulf of Mexico oil spill slows its advance towards the coast
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:21 AM GMT on May 02, 2010 +1
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon continues to affect the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and along the Chandelier Islands off the coast of Mississippi. Strong south to southeast winds blowing at 15 - 25 knots will continue through Monday, which will push oil onto portions of the eastern Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwards towards the Mississippi border. However, the current trajectory forecasts now show the advance of the oil will slow over the next few days, despite the strong onshore winds. This is probably due to the fact that the shape of the Louisiana coast is setting up a counter-clockwise rotating eddy over the ocean regions between the Mississippi coast and the mouth of the Mississippi River, as seen on the latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast.) Unfortunately, there are no buoys in this region of the Gulf to tell us what the currents are.


Figure 1. The oil spill on May 1, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft. Image credit: NASA.

It now appears that the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle coasts will not see significant amounts of oil hitting their shores through at least Monday. On Monday night, the winds shift to southwesterly and weaken as a cold front approaches. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds with then shift to offshore (northwesterly) on Tuesday as the cold front passes. This should blow the oil back out to sea a few miles. It is thus possible that only the Louisiana coast will see oil impacts over the coming seven days, though there is substantial uncertainty in this forecast. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light onshore winds that should allow for slow transport of the oil towards shore. It appears very unlikely that oil will make it into the Loop Current during the next seven days and affect the southern Gulf of Mexico. The long range wind forecast beyond that time is too uncertain to say what might happen at longer time ranges.


Figure 2. Previous location and forecast location for today of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration.


Figure 3. Trajectory forecast for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill for 6 pm CDT Monday May 3, 2010. Image credit: State of Louisiana.

High risk of severe weather tonight
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has outlined a "High Risk" region of severe weather potential over Arkansas tonight, and there are numerous tornadoes currently being reported over Arkansas. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has radar images of yesterday's strongest storms in his blog today, including images of the tornado north of Little Rock that killed one person and injured several dozen.

Jeff Masters
Uprooted (CalicoBass)
Not sure what this thing is, it is at the old Shoffner Gin area in Shoffner. They were hit by a tornado last night. A Church was destroyed, nothing left of it. Notice the legs of this thing, just pulled them out of the ground.
Uprooted
Tornado captured in Sardis Arkansas. It was twilight when and this was shot at ISO 6400 thus it is noisy. Tornado was about 3/4 miles from us during this shot. I clicked 3 frames and we hauled booty. The tornado crossed the road at this exact place a few moments later. moved on to East End Arkansas where id did extensive damage.
Tornado
Flood damage in Hollow Rock Tennesse (Criqet)
A railroad crossing washed out from torrential rains in Carroll County Tennessee. Over 6 inches of rain logged in with my weather station KTNHOLLO! Many more photos coming.....thanks for viewing
Flood damage in Hollow Rock Tennesse
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401. Stormchaser2007 4:50 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can you better explain what the NAO is, I know what it is, I'm just not too familiar with it.


Heres some good sites for explaining the NAO.

Link

Link
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248
402. MiamiHurricanes09 4:52 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Heres some good sites for explaining the NAO.

Link

Link
Oh ok, thanks, I know what it is very well, I just don't understand what effect it has on the tropics.
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403. hydrus 4:57 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
We are getting pounded with heavy rain here in Middle Tennessee. Water rescues are happening as I type this post. Had a 55 mph gust. More is coming. Some areas have had 15 inches of rain in a very short period of time. They do not want anyone in Middle or Western part of the state to drive. They also said this is a extremely dangerous situation. This really bites. 5 people have died so far. 2000 evacuated.
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404. Stormchaser2007 4:59 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh ok, thanks, I know what it is very well, I just don't understand what effect it has on the tropics.


Oh, my bad.

Here's the effect on the tropics explained by Dr.Grey and the CSU team.

"Conditions in the Atlantic are quite favorable for an active season. SST anomalies across the Main Development Region for March are near their highest levels on record. Figure 9 displays the currently-observed SST anomaly pattern across the Atlantic. Note the very strong positive anomalies throughout the tropical Atlantic and the cool anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast of the United States. This SST anomaly pattern is characteristic of the very strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values that were present during January and February. A negative NAO is characterized by anomalous high pressure in the northern Atlantic and anomalous low pressure near the Azores High (Figure 10). This pressure gradient pattern causes a reduction in the trade winds (Figure 11). Reduced trade winds drive less upwelling and evaporation from the sea surface, typically resulting in a warming of SSTs. Warmer Atlantic SSTs in the MDR are associated with an active THC/positive AMO, weaker tropospheric vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds, increased instability and lower-than-normal sea level pressures. All of these conditions are generally associated with much more active Atlantic basin hurricane seasons."
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405. Patrap 5:03 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
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406. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 5:04 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
we had a little rain this am now clear and sunny temps around 73f with a heat index of 83f may get some late afternoon thunder showers or storms with rain by midnight ending after sunrise tomorrow
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407. Patrap 5:05 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
408. BenBIogger 5:06 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
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409. Patrap 5:07 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    

USCG Sector Mobile Ala. Digital Area Contingency Plan


IMPORTANT NOTE: You will need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the PDFs found within this web site, If you do not have it, you may download it here for installation. This will require administrative privileges on your computer, if you do not have this, please contact your IT administrator.

This web site contains documents, references, policies, PDF maps, and Google Earth files for use in pollution response within the USCG Sector Mobile Area of Responsibility. Use the navigation bar to the left to explore the contents of this site. The site also contains an online Geographic Information System (GIS) for the Sector Area of Responsibility that allows you to use and explore the data and make your own maps. A list of all the data layers in the GIS can be found here.

You may view any of the documents that make up the overall plan by following the links below. Additional reference documents, such as appendices, policy letters, job aids, and contact lists can be found by using the navigation links to the left.
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410. BahaHurican 5:08 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Re post 408... finally starting to see the upward creep in SSTs off Ecoast FL and in Cent. Bahamas....
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411. hurricane23 5:10 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Re post 408... finally starting to see the upward creep in SSTs off Ecoast FL and in Cent. Bahamas....


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412. atmoaggie 5:20 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Informative write up and a bunch of pics of the oil rigs I had not seen anywhere else: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/01/the-gulf-oil-rig-explosion-on-the-scene-photos/
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413. weatherwatcher12 5:21 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Hi everybody. High for today was a whopping 103.1 degrees Fahrenheit at 11:24 am.
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414. mfaria101 5:24 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Hello all, Longtime lurker with a quick question to all the people who know so much more about this than I. I keep hearing that its hard to estimate the amount of oil already spilled in the gulf but couldn't any Coast Guard ship with modern sonar locate the edges of the spill under water? sonar waves have to travel differently in oil than water and I cant believe we cant adapt a sonar rig to do this. Sorry if this sounds like a silly question or if it has been addressed before.
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415. Patrap 5:27 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    


Eyewitness to the rig Blowout,Ae. La. Sport Fisherman who were just off the rig April 20th.

It was pretty cool to see them literally SAIL! When we drove at night the jellyfish would glow as they passed under the boat by the thousands. The tuna bites were starting to slow down so we drove right up to the rig to try to catch bait. No bait, but we found more tuna under the floating rig. Around 10pm the entire center of the rig started rushing water downwards over all the pipes... I've never seen such an event take place. I looked at my friend who previously worked offshore, and he said that's BOP something another and the rig took a 'kick!' I thought the rig was sinking and that was their way of bilging... But nope! Methane gas began BLOWING out of the West side of it and the noise of the thrust was louder than anything I've ever herd (except for a sonic boom I herd once, and what I'm about to tell you next) My eyes began to burn and that friend I was telling you about earlier began to SCREAM, "GO, GO, GO, GO, GOOOOO!" I positioned my compass North and put the gears in WOT! At approximately 100 yds from the rig it Exploded! Puts a new meaning to explosion. We hit the deck and continued North @ WOT, Blind because the moon was at quarter crescent and I had no radar.
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416. Stormchaser2007 5:29 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Pretty significant warm-up being portrayed.

Not too sure about it verifying.

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417. BahaHurican 5:32 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Re: BP president's response to current blaming of BP for drilling crisis

1. Pple going "he didn't even say sorry" are ridiculous. Once u say "sorry", u are admitting it was all your fault, which means u have to pay for everything. Since BPs default position is "it's not our fault" regardless of the situation, that's just ridiculous to expect. Besides, it seems to me that nobody really knows just where the fault lies as yet. So kinda stupid to assume fault or place blame in these circumstances...

2. Nobody's talking it, but it seems to me sabotage cannot as yet be ruled out. Lots of potential sabateurs out there, everybody from Obama-haters to BP-haters to Arab-oil-supporters. Lots of wingnuts out there.... and that's the RADICAL potential causes.... lol

3. I don't get the impression that this kind of failure is a common one.... depth and problems with the BOP seem (or are being portrayed as being) relatively unusual circumstances. Right now there's definitely some kind of equipment failure that appears relatively unexpected. Why so unexpected, I'm sure we'll find out.

4. What role did human error have in the equipment failure? Did we have employers / employees falsifying reports of correctly functioning equipment, esp the BOP? Did we have shoddy installation e. g. things installed upside down, which caused / contributed to failure? Or was the equipment itself faulty, causing pple to place faith in shoddy workmanship that was bound to fail?

5. I think some pple are ridiculous about how quickly they expected for teams to be in place to forestall leakage at the site. Like, do u forget the rig was BURNING for the first 12+ hours? Kinda hard to work on oil recovery when pple there were expecting things to blow up some more.... Then at first they didn't realize there were 3 leaks; so it was kinda hard to deploy anti leak measures of the volume actually required. I keep thinking some pple expect more than is humanly possible...

I admit my instinct is to lambaste BP.... it seems they are the one intl oil company it is easiest to associate disaster with. Is it just bad luck? company policy? Biased news reporting? who knows? But this sure is a situation which should entail clean up and solutions to problems FIRST, and blame throwing and avoiding SECOND.

Just my few hundred wds..... lol
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418. indianrivguy 5:33 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting mfaria101:
Hello all, Longtime lurker with a quick question to all the people who know so much more about this than I. I keep hearing that its hard to estimate the amount of oil already spilled in the gulf but couldn't any Coast Guard ship with modern sonar locate the edges of the spill under water? sonar waves have to travel differently in oil than water and I cant believe we cant adapt a sonar rig to do this. Sorry if this sounds like a silly question or if it has been addressed before.


surface returns from the sonar would make this an improbable tool.
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419. xcool 5:35 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Stormchaser2007 nice image huh...hmmmm
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420. mfaria101 5:35 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting indianrivguy:


surface returns from the sonar would make this an improbable tool.


I understand that (I think) but couldn't they map out the extent of the subsurface oil?
Member Since: May 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30
421. hurricane23 5:38 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can you better explain what the NAO is, I know what it is, I'm just not too familiar with it.


The NAO deals with the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores. It highly influences the magnitude and direction of the westerlies in the North Atlantic, thus influencing storm tracks across the region. A positive NAO indicates a larger difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores, resulting in a stronger pressure gradient between the semi permanent Icelandic Low and the Azores High. This would in turn result in stronger westerlies over the North Atlantic. Inversely, a negative NAO results in a weaker difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores, giving weaker westerlies. Here is a link with a short explanation and a couple pictures showing this NAO.

You make ask does the NAO have an influence on tc tracks? The answer is yes in my view. Research has shown that a strongly positive NAO results in the strengthening and shift of the Azores High ot the east, placing it closer to the western side of the Atlantic basin. As the Atlantic hurricanes approach the western periphery of this strong High pressure system, it acts as a conveyer belt causing a hurricane to take a more northerly track, and in some situations, steering it away from the Eastern U.S. On the contrary, a strongly negative NAO results in the weakening and shift to the south and west of the Azores High, placing it closer to the southeastern U.S. This would result in the steering of Atlantic hurricanes more towards the Eastern United States or into the Gulf of Mexico, making it more of a possibility for landfall. I'm not saying that this is always the case. These are just a couple scenarios. Hurricane forecasting is very difficult and there are many different factors that come in to play, as I'm sure you already know. I hope this helps!

CPC-NAO
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
422. indianrivguy 5:39 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting mfaria101:


I understand that (I think) but couldn't they map out the extent of the subsurface oil?


no, we are talking inches of thickness.. or less.. no sonar today could discern such a small difference on/at the surface. To get any detail, you would have to use very high frequencies, which severely limits range.. and again, surface returns would muck it up.
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424. CybrTeddy 5:40 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty significant warm-up being portrayed.

Not too sure about it verifying.



Its scorching across my area of the SE and in the Caribbean. It might very well verify.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20235
425. BenBIogger 5:40 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting hurricane23:


The NAO deals with the difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores. It highly influences the magnitude and direction of the westerlies in the North Atlantic, thus influencing storm tracks across the region. A positive NAO indicates a larger difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores, resulting in a stronger pressure gradient between the semi permanent Icelandic Low and the Azores High. This would in turn result in stronger westerlies over the North Atlantic. Inversely, a negative NAO results in a weaker difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores, giving weaker westerlies. Here is a link with a short explanation and a couple pictures showing this NAO.

You make ask does the NAO have an influence on tc tracks? The answer is yes in my view. Research has shown that a strongly positive NAO results in the strengthening and shift of the Azores High ot the east, placing it closer to the western side of the Atlantic basin. As the Atlantic hurricanes approach the western periphery of this strong High pressure system, it acts as a conveyer belt causing a hurricane to take a more northerly track, and in some situations, steering it away from the Eastern U.S. On the contrary, a strongly negative NAO results in the weakening and shift to the south and west of the Azores High, placing it closer to the southeastern U.S. This would result in the steering of Atlantic hurricanes more towards the Eastern United States or into the Gulf of Mexico, making it more of a possibility for landfall. I'm not saying that this is always the case. These are just a couple scenarios. Hurricane forecasting is very difficult and there are many different factors that come in to play, as I'm sure you already know. I hope this helps!

CPC-NAO


I sent you a PM.
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426. xcool 5:42 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Link


live tv NT
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427. Drakoen 5:42 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty significant warm-up being portrayed.

Not too sure about it verifying.



Not sure if it is the same model but this shows dramatic warmth as well:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010
428. indianrivguy 5:42 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
Sheeesh,..wheres a muzzle when ya need one...?


Limbaugh suggests oil rig explosion an inside job; says cleanup unnecessary

by Chad Bower / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on May 2, 2010 at 11:48 AM



The guy that called into the Mark Levin show yesterday did so to dispel all rumors that it was anything but a natural accident

Mark Levin
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 1783
430. MiamiHurricanes09 5:44 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Oh, my bad.

Here's the effect on the tropics explained by Dr.Grey and the CSU team.

"Conditions in the Atlantic are quite favorable for an active season. SST anomalies across the Main Development Region for March are near their highest levels on record. Figure 9 displays the currently-observed SST anomaly pattern across the Atlantic. Note the very strong positive anomalies throughout the tropical Atlantic and the cool anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast of the United States. This SST anomaly pattern is characteristic of the very strong negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values that were present during January and February. A negative NAO is characterized by anomalous high pressure in the northern Atlantic and anomalous low pressure near the Azores High (Figure 10). This pressure gradient pattern causes a reduction in the trade winds (Figure 11). Reduced trade winds drive less upwelling and evaporation from the sea surface, typically resulting in a warming of SSTs. Warmer Atlantic SSTs in the MDR are associated with an active THC/positive AMO, weaker tropospheric vertical wind shear, weaker trade winds, increased instability and lower-than-normal sea level pressures. All of these conditions are generally associated with much more active Atlantic basin hurricane seasons."
Thanks a lot.
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431. Patrap 5:46 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
We could ask dem Navy Dolphins,..they pretty good at obs and such..
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432. mfaria101 5:46 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Thanks for the answer I will now use the internets to figure out what you said. Lol.
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433. MiamiHurricanes09 5:46 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty significant warm-up being portrayed.

Not too sure about it verifying.

Wow that ridge really warming things up.
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435. BahaHurican 5:48 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Pat, re the Rush comments,

the part about the conspiracy theory is just what one would expect of him

the part about it being ok to kill LA wildlife,.... well, in a way it's typical Limbaugh also, isn't it? Why be caring when u can be callous ....

I doubt even the more apathetic of the LA / MS coastal dwellers would go to this point, though. I think they can at least appreciate the damage to human activities and would therefore want to see some kind of successful cleanup efforts.....
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436. indianrivguy 5:50 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Patrap:
We could ask dem Navy Dolphins,..they pretty good at obs and such..


I earned mine in '72




429. StSimonsIslandGAGuy a plus
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437. hydrus 5:53 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting indianrivguy:


I earned mine in '72




429. StSimonsIslandGAGuy a plus
Man you old....jk.....really ...jk :)
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438. weathermanwannabe 5:57 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Good Afternoon.......Seems like the position of the southern jet stream over the US has shifted a bit over the past several days, breaking away from the El Nino pattern is has been in all winter as we near Summer, and, overall wind shear values also starting to drop across the MDR as we head towards June....Temps in the Gulf (aready around 70 in many parts off of Florida) will probalby warm very nicely to near 80 by eary June when the season starts.......Just have to keep an eye on that wind shear but I have no clue when the first storm will spin up and whether it will be an early start to the season.........I am most worried aobut the Cape Verde season come August and September.
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439. Stormchaser2007 5:57 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting Drakoen:


Not sure if it is the same model but this shows dramatic warmth as well:



I believe they're run on the same base physics. The only difference is that particular run was initialized on April 28th and the other came out today.
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440. xcool 5:59 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
The water heats up real fast
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441. indianrivguy 6:00 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting hydrus:
Man you old....jk.....really ...jk :)


yes I am.. why, I remember back on Pangea there was this raptor that said to the triceratops; "Hey did you hear"..... well, this is family rated blog.. perhaps over a beer sometime...
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442. MiamiHurricanes09 6:00 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
EPAC showing a lot of moisture associated with the ITCZ.
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443. BahaHurican 6:04 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Listening to this guy who is from the rig itself, it seems there wasn't much they could have done to prevent what happened....
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444. MiamiHurricanes09 6:04 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Afternoon.......Seems like the position of the southern jet stream over the US has shifted a bit over the past several days, breaking away from the El Nino pattern is has been in all winter as we near Summer, and, overall wind shear values also starting to drop across the MDR as we head towards June....Temps in the Gulf (aready around 70 in many parts off of Florida) will probalby warm very nicely to near 80 by eary June when the season starts.......Just have to keep an eye on that wind shear but I have no clue when the first storm will spin up and whether it will be an early start to the season.........I am most worried aobut the Cape Verde season come August and September.
I believe our first tropical cyclone will come with the next upward MJO, which I believe is on May 17th. And with the Cape Verde season I got 3 words, "Florida is screwed".
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445. WatchingThisOne 6:06 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Baha,

Informed speculation about what may have led up to the blowout of the DWH may be found here:

Link

I've spent probably 10 hours reading on that site. It's kind of like Wunderground but for deepwater drillers and engineers. It seems clear that this was a tragic accident, but that it will be some time before the true details emerge. That being said, there are some coherent explanations being offered. Just like here, there is a lot of jargon and acronyms to wade through, but if you read enough posts you will find yourself sorting those out.
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446. hydrus 6:11 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting indianrivguy:


yes I am.. why, I remember back on Pangea there was this raptor that said to the triceratops; "Hey did you hear"..... well, this is family rated blog.. perhaps over a beer sometime...
Absolutely. I have drank many a beer with my Florida bros. But not in 1972, I was in first grade and if my great grandfather was not present, it was not permitted.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14257
447. weathermanwannabe 6:11 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
We will have to wait but I am not too certain that the Atlantic Basin will spin a storm up in mid-May, particularly, if we we get a lot of activity in the E-Pac when their season starts on May 15th........Something to that "inverse" activity relationship between the two basins in June-July which I have seen over the past several seasons (both are rarely spining up storms at the same time)...Some MJO related issues there as well as it crosses from the E-Pac to the Atlantic side...
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448. BahaHurican 6:13 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
445.

Thanks, watching. I've been paying more attention to wx related comments and potential effects than causes.

I notice some pple have been suggesting shutting down all GOM drilling... wouldn't that be like closing all coal mines because of the recent accident in WV? I can understand pple not wanting new drilling off the east coast, but closing current sites seems like a bit of overkill to me.

Still seems more logical to push developments in alternative energy b4 shutting down US drilling....
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449. WatchingThisOne 6:26 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Quoting BahaHurican:
445.

Thanks, watching. I've been paying more attention to wx related comments and potential effects than causes.

I notice some pple have been suggesting shutting down all GOM drilling... wouldn't that be like closing all coal mines because of the recent accident in WV? I can understand pple not wanting new drilling off the east coast, but closing current sites seems like a bit of overkill to me.

Still seems more logical to push developments in alternative energy b4 shutting down US drilling....


There is little question that we need offshore oil and gas to fill in at least some of the hole that will be there from peak oil before alternative energy comes fully onstream (it's going to be painful enough as it is without shutting in the gulf). Technically, there is likely to be additional guidance re: cementing of wellheads, and there is already a move towards placing blowout preventers much closer to the surface.

Politically, it's a nightmare, and it's clearly an historical disaster from an economic, environmental and ecological standpoint. Worse, it appears that flowrate is much higher than the 5000 bpd that is being bandied about ... probably by an order of magnitude. Current best estimates seem to suggest that we already have 9 million barrels in the gulf ... the Exxon Valdez was 11 million, the Mexican offshore rig was 160 million by the time it was over (most of it ended up at the bottom of the Gulf).

This is likely to go on for months ...
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450. Stormchaser2007 6:27 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
Check out how hot the Caribbean was during Wilma in 2005.

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451. Beachfoxx 6:28 PM GMT on May 02, 2010    
DATE: May 02, 2010 13:06:13 CST
NOAA Closes Commercial and Recreational Fishing in Oil-Affected Portion of Gulf of Mexico

Link
MAP OF AFFECTED AREA
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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