Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current and hit the Keys
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon is moving little, thanks to the light winds of 10 knots or less that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past few days. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will remain light through Saturday, which should result in little transport of the oil slick. The latest trajectory forecast from the NOAA Office of Response and Restoration continues to show that the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Chandeleur Islands will be the only land areas affected by the spill over the next two days.
On Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower.
Figure 1. Forecast location of the oil spill for Friday, May 7, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.
Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current
A major concern with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the possibility for the oil to move southwards and become entrained into the mighty Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, which would rapidly transport the oil through the Florida Keys, impacting northwest Cuba, South Florida, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. However, there is no immediate danger of this happening. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) indicate that the currents will not be favorable for pulling any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days. Oil will have to travel approximately 100 miles to the south-southeast to get entrained into the Loop Current, and we probably would need a 2+ day period of strong winds out of the north for this to happen. The long-range GFS model indicates that the earliest this might happen is 10+ days from now. As summer gets closer, the incidence of cold fronts making it far enough south to bring an extended period of offshore northerly winds to the Gulf of Mexico decreases. I think there is a 40% chance that the next cold front capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current will arrive by the end of June. However, I think it is more likely that the next such front will not arrive until October, when fall comes.
That makes a tropical storm or hurricane as perhaps the most likely weather event to push oil into the Loop Current over the next few months. A tropical storm hitting the Panhandle of Florida would do the trick, by bringing northerly winds over the oil spill location, thanks to the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm. Looking ahead to June, June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual. While Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are near average, wind shear from our lingering El Niño will probably be above average. Since 1995, there have been three June tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have followed a track capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current. These storms were Hurricane Allison of 1995, Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 2005. Taking into account all these factors, I'll give a 20% chance that we'll get a June tropical storm capable of transporting oil into the Loop Current.
Figure 2. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2006.
Next Post
I'll have a new post Friday. Next week, I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual conference on hurricane science, and will be updating you on all the latest advancements in hurricane research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 — Blog Index
Except that the wave axis doesn't go through the "circular" part....it's off to the east. It looks like there's low pressure under there, but there isn't. That's a big reason why tropical wave analysis while still over the African continent is so tough, and that's why the NHC doesn't bother with it until they are over water. Looks on satellite can be very deceiving.
C'mon folks. We're a little over anxious here. Waaaaaaay to early for Cape Verde stuff.
Well not really....the SSD METEOSAT sector is weird....their water vapor imagery has always had the color legend shifted down, or to the left, relative to all the other imagery on the site. Compare the GOES sector showing an upper low northwest of the Cape Verdes, with the same region in the METEOSAT sector. See the color difference? What is grayish white on the African sector is actually black or orange on the regular imagery that we are used to seeing. So then, it's actually drier than it looks on that image.
GOES sector Atlantic-wide:
METEOSAT African Sector:
Well I'm just having fun tracking our first 2 tropical waves. I don't see anything else to do.
Zoom
Meteosat-8
0.6 µm/0.8 µm/1.6 µm/3.9 µm
Product Information,Atlantic JAVA 10-day Loop
It must be a very strange reason indeed....lol.
Theres a bit of SAL
Increasing Hydrocarbon Productivity by Optimizing Reservoir Wellbore Placement
Techniques that optimize the recovery of hydrocarbons from the reservoir are expected to play a key role in the future in keeping an energy-hungry world supplied with the crude oil and natural gas it needs to remain viable.
A recent oil and gas summit meeting set the tone with its opening statement. "World oil and gas demand continues to rise, keeping on course for 107 million barrels per day by 2020, propelled mainly by the Chinese and Asian economies. Yet the industry is finding it more and more difficult to meet this demand and the effect of mature wells and production declines in key areas threatens to bring about the biggest crisis since the 1970s."
Unfortunately, oil discoveries have been declining since the 1970s and it is becoming increasingly more difficult to replenish reserves. Therefore, the challenge before the industry today is to maximize recovery from assets already found. Optimal wellbore placement (geosteering) will play a key role in helping asset teams meet this challenge and maximize the recovery of oil and gas from their reservoirs.
For most of the Twentieth Century, oil and gas wells were drilled vertically to expose and produce the pay zones of the reservoirs. Then, in the early 1980s, a major change occurred when horizontal drilling emerged as a viable alternative to vertical wells.
One of the technologies that has been developed to optimize placement of the wellbore in the reservoir is geosteering. What is geosteering? Simply stated, it is directionally steering the well path based on petrophysical responses, which indicate, with correlation to a close offset well, the stratigraphic position of the wellbore. With a good correlation, real-time interpretation of the geological structure in 3D space allows the positioning of the well in the optimum reservoir layer.
It most certainly is.
I hear ya. It's when I am away from my computer and the satellite images, that is when systems will develop. lol
Your friend,
Alexander Barrios
Alex, I am sorry to hear about your loss, be blessed and I will keep you all in my prayers.
I'm so sorry to hear about your loss Alex. My thoughts and prayers will be with you and your family.
Sorry Alex.
I was able to watch Hurricane Bill beginning from its genesis last year. Truly amazing. It is the only storm that I've seen the entire progression of its life cycle.
May 5th 2005:
May 5th 2010:
The cap WILL break, and the storms that develop will be UGLY!
Gotta love OUR National Weather Service!!
another 96F day here today! Some showers forecast for the w/e, but seeing is believing....
Interesting feature off Africa, but loads of dry air west and north of it.
Interesting feature off Panama, with some moisture for it to feed on?
Interesting discussion on the oil leak here and on the previous blog. I wish that we were privvy to all the information. For instance-
1-where is the restriction that is reducing the flow? From a partially closed valve? A kinked pipe?
2-If the restriction is a kinked pipe, then the pipe itself is under enormous pressure and is damaged. How do we place domes over the pipe without breaking the damaged pipe? (a kinked pipe that is leaking is in pretty bad shape).
3- the domes (images were posted earlier by Patrap, I think) look like they are well thought-out and if all goes according to plan will no doubt help. Providing the weather is calm and gentle. What happens if things get rough? No way to stop the flow, as the dome will fill and oil will come out through the openings where the pipes are entering/exiting.
As I said, it would be real nice if we knew all the thinking on this one.
My very best wishes for success, to all involved.
They are supposed to have the "dome" in place over the next few days. Hopefully they can position the dome properly and pump the crude and store it in barges. If that fails, we will have another 3-6 mos of oil spill to deal with until the relief well is drilled :O(!
Hang tough, rain will be arriving! The Calabash tree does not lie :o)!
joe
Link
The NWS Ft Worth-Dallas, TX will have a new Area forecast Discussion out by 4AM on 5-7-10 and we'll have a better idea on the severe weather threat for early next week, stay tuned!
Could someone please tell me what the hurricane/tropical storm forecast is for this season?
Thank you!
And if the rain does not fall, the Calabash leaves will fall off again.
Then what will I do?
It is an anomolous situation, and one that I do not have any historical data on!
Patience dear grasshopper, patience! I believe the rain will return within the next 2 weeks!
Thank you, Oh Wise One.
I am gladdened by your words.
I too, expect that rains will fall, with the next moon.
Viewing: 501 - 551
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 — Blog Index