Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current and hit the Keys
The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon is moving little, thanks to the light winds of 10 knots or less that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past few days. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will remain light through Saturday, which should result in little transport of the oil slick. The latest trajectory forecast from the NOAA Office of Response and Restoration continues to show that the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Chandeleur Islands will be the only land areas affected by the spill over the next two days.
On Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower.
Figure 1. Forecast location of the oil spill for Friday, May 7, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.
Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current
A major concern with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the possibility for the oil to move southwards and become entrained into the mighty Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, which would rapidly transport the oil through the Florida Keys, impacting northwest Cuba, South Florida, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. However, there is no immediate danger of this happening. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) indicate that the currents will not be favorable for pulling any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days. Oil will have to travel approximately 100 miles to the south-southeast to get entrained into the Loop Current, and we probably would need a 2+ day period of strong winds out of the north for this to happen. The long-range GFS model indicates that the earliest this might happen is 10+ days from now. As summer gets closer, the incidence of cold fronts making it far enough south to bring an extended period of offshore northerly winds to the Gulf of Mexico decreases. I think there is a 40% chance that the next cold front capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current will arrive by the end of June. However, I think it is more likely that the next such front will not arrive until October, when fall comes.
That makes a tropical storm or hurricane as perhaps the most likely weather event to push oil into the Loop Current over the next few months. A tropical storm hitting the Panhandle of Florida would do the trick, by bringing northerly winds over the oil spill location, thanks to the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm. Looking ahead to June, June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual. While Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are near average, wind shear from our lingering El Niño will probably be above average. Since 1995, there have been three June tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have followed a track capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current. These storms were Hurricane Allison of 1995, Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 2005. Taking into account all these factors, I'll give a 20% chance that we'll get a June tropical storm capable of transporting oil into the Loop Current.
Figure 2. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2006.
Next Post
I'll have a new post Friday. Next week, I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual conference on hurricane science, and will be updating you on all the latest advancements in hurricane research.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Look at all the precipitation over the Caribbean, GOMEX, and Florida, that can give you an idea of how much activity there will be in those areas.
Amazing, do you have a link to the full article? If so, please post it for me :o).
Check out this article on the "1000" mile wide ash plume approaching Ireland!!
Link
THEY ARE NOT African Waves
22:45 UTC
850 MB vorticity definitely getting stronger, very interesting to see what unfolds.
You might want to rethink your thinker......LOL
THE 1ST WAVE OF THE YEAR
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W FROM 1N-9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
UPPER-AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES INDICATE THE WAVE PASSED DAKAR
SENEGAL AROUND 02/1200 UTC. EXAMINING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF
METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
CONFIRMS PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED LOW-LATITUDE SINCE EMERGING OFF OF
WEST AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND
05/1210 UTC CAPTURED 15-20 KT RETRIEVALS N OF 4N IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND ALSO CONFIRMED THE APPROXIMATE POSITION OF
THE WAVE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE WAVE ARE
ELEVATED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N.
The NHC has designated a tropical wave over the Atlantic, and there is likely a weak one currently about to emerge off of western Africa as well. So far there are no others apparent on analysis over Africa.
You're thinking of land-based convection, which does tend to wane after sunset, when there is only minimal heat energy left for a thunderstorm to take advantage of.
In the tropics, however, the process is the exact opposite -- convection actually increases at nighttime, due to the large temperature gradient apparent from the surface upward.
Certainly, the air is cooler at nighttime, even in the tropics, but that's the precise reason why convection increases during that time; even though it's relatively cool at the surface, it's still much warmer there than it is at, say, 600 mb. This is because the ocean is the source of the aforementioned heat. Hence, the relatively warm air at the surface (again, generated by the ocean, not the air) rises and meets the cold air aloft, generating convection.
No, I think this area is struggling due to the shear and dry air associated with the aforementioned TUTT.
I think you meant to mention the ocean water temperature, which changes little at night, thereby keeping the surface layer warm and increasing instability as the upper layers cool at night, creating a steeper lapse rate than during the day.
I HAVE ADMIN IT MY BAD
Link
A very similar storm occurred in 1990, TD-1 an off-season tropical system. Convection was relatively weak with the system, and was generally scattered. Pressure was only 1007 mbar, with maximum sustained winds of only 30mph. Just like the current Panamanian system the strongest convection was located on the west side of the storm, and vertical development was not all too impressive.
I suspect the only reason it became a TD was because the NHC was more liberal back then, because there is no way in hell it would be one today.
And yes the shear is affecting it but if it moves north, which is not forecasted, then the shear should affect it widely.
FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF
Yes, yes I did. How could I forget?
Thanks for pointing that out.
Precisely my point, although I'm doubting your other claim. Namely, that convection with these systems strengthens during the day and wanes at night -- I always assumed that it was the other way around, though you could be right, I suppose.
No he's right you have it backwards....it is the opposite over water than over land.
Often a tropical disturbance near a landmass like Central America will appear to increase in convective coverage and intensity during the day due to land-based convection firing due to daytime heating. This doesn't always represent an increase in organization of the system.
http://usfweb3.usf.edu/absolutenm/templates/?a=2298&z=31
USF Scientist: Oil Spill Now Three Times Size of Lake Okeechobee
By Vickie Chachere
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (May 5, 2010) %u2013 The oil-slickened water in the Gulf of Mexico, dead sea turtles on the beach and a sea bird%u2019s feathers soaked in black goo are the searing images from the oil spill %u2013 but USF researcher Chuanmin Hu has a unique, and particularly devastating vantage point to this disaster.
Using images beamed from a NASA satellite far above the earth to USF%u2019s College of Marine Science, Hu tracks the spread of oil through the gulf.
...
Oil bubbles up all the time from the gulf floor, but in small quantities spread out over thousands of miles. Hu discovered that what scientists had long dismissed as sunlight glints on the NASA images. The oil created contrasting swaths of light areas in bodies of water, and Hu's discovery has been crucial in detecting between naturally-occurring and man-made oil contamination in the gulf.
Incredibly, he said, on any given day the amount of oil naturally leaking in the gulf is about the same amount as from the BP spill.
But two major things differ: the naturally-occurring spills are small and miles apart, so the density of the oil is much less and, because oil has been seeping from the gulf floor for millions of years the marine environment has adapted to it.
...
Click the "play"button on this model to see how Weisberg's analysis shows the currents would move oil spilled in the north central gulf. And this model shows projections for the Deep Horizon spill. (oops the second link didn't work)
--------------------
http://usfweb3.usf.edu/absolutenm/templates/?a=2297&z=31
Weatherbird Begins Expedition
By Vickie Chachere
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (May 5, 2010) %u2013 Armed with some of the world%u2019s most advanced underwater imaging technology, a team of scientists from USF%u2019s College of Marine Science and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute on Wednesday began a 10-day venture into the Gulf of Mexico oil spill to document the disaster%u2019s impact on marine life.
I do believe you have it right - 96.5% sure.
Both, actually. In June, October, and November, steering conditions are generally the same, what with frequent shortwave troughs flattening out ridges to the east and allowing for a more northerly component of motion.
I'm bored....can you give me the date on that image?
20100406,20100505,11.1
It's all about the skin temperature. The land temperature varies greatly with the rising and setting of the sun. The ocean does not, since it has a high specific heat, and does not lose heat nearly as quickly as land. This creates more instability over the ocean at night than during the day, as there is a greater difference in temperature between the surface layer and the mid-upper atmosphere. Over land, the greatest instability occurs during the day as the sun heats the land and creates the steepest lapse rate. They are opposites.
correct. exactly backwards in fact. It is precisely the weaker storms that are greater effected by the diurnal cycle in which convection wanes at the diurnal minima (around 2-4 local on average)
May 25, 1990 via GIBBS
Link
Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 070001
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 06 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 1N-9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ELEVATED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 5N35W TO THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N
BETWEEN 12W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
EQ-5N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 26W-29W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W DRIFTING S. THE TROUGH IS
DELINEATED BY A DISTINCT CLOUD LINE WITH NO RAINFALL. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS AIRMASS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH FLORIDA S OF COCOA BEACH E OF 81W. A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING PREDOMINATELY 5-10 KT WINDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE SW GULF
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N ORIGINATING FROM S MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N98W PRODUCING MOSTLY W TO NW
UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY 10-15 KT SE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. ALSO EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO REACH THE NW GULF SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND
SHOWERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 75W-78W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 60W-64W...S OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 67W-72W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
10N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER
SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. A
NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N62W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 30N46W 30N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 55W-59W MOVING
W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ABOVE THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 9N45W. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
FORMOSA
LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER
SW CARIBBEAN."
Thanks.
Ya it is as I suspected...the situation was the opposite with this system with an upper ridge over the area instead of a TUTT, and there was a lot of heat building in that area likely due to an MJO upward motion pulse.
0z May 25th 1990 200mb Geopotential Heights (shaded) and 1000mb Geopotential Heights (contours, basically indicating MSLP):
Punch that address into the web and see page 14, if you have PowerPoint.
It shows diurnal max and min for tropics.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/05/icelands-eyjafjallajokull-volcano- bulging-slightly/1
sorry not in firefox, burning my mushrooms!
Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com
Gulf of Mexico-Transocean Drilling Incident
DATE: May 06, 2010 18:59:25 CST
The Ongoing Administration-Wide Response to the Deepwater BP Oil Spill
* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information:
(866)-448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system:
(281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages:
(800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife:
(866) 557-1401
Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center
Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240
PAST 24 HOURS
Top Officials Visit Gulf Coast
Top administration officials traveled to the Gulf Coast at the direction of the President to meet with federal, state and local officials, as well as local business leaders, as part of their continued oversight of BP’s efforts to plug the leak and contain the spill, and their ongoing emphasis on interagency coordination in response to the event.
Secretary Napolitano and Secretary Locke visited Biloxi, Miss., and Pensacola, Fla., to inspect response operations, meet with state, local and private sector leaders, and view firsthand staging areas for the deployment of boom to protect vital shoreline from the oil spill. Administrator Lubchenco accompanied the group to Biloxi, then joined White House Council on Environmental Quality Chair Nancy Sutley in Pascagoula, Miss., to tour NOAA’s seafood inspection lab.
Secretary Salazar visited the Mobile Command Center in Mobile, Ala., to observe response efforts and talk with responders about ongoing operations and mitigation plans. He also met with BP Officials at their command center in Houston to get an update on BP’s efforts to close down their leaks.
EPA Deputy Administrator Bob Perciasepe traveled to Louisiana, where he reviewed EPA’s ongoing air and water monitoring activities, met with local and community leaders, and assessed the environmental situation on the ground.
Low-Interest Loans for Small Businesses
Small Business Administration Administrator Karen Mills announced the agency is making low-interest loans available to Louisiana Gulf Coast small businesses suffering financial losses following the oil spill, which shut down commercial and recreational fishing along the state’s southeast coast—acting under the SBA’s authority to offer economic injury assistance in response to a May 4 request from Gov. Bobby Jindal.
NOAA Mission Redirected for Oil Spill Response
A NOAA-sponsored ocean mission, set to explore for deep sea corals, has been redirected to collect seafloor and water column data from areas near the Gulf of Mexico oil spill source. Researchers from the National Institute for Undersea Science and Technology are on a university research ship to obtain core sediment samples from the seafloor and water samples from the water column in areas near the spill source. The samples are expected to provide important information about the abundance of marine organisms and the presence of chemicals in ocean water and sediments—information for a baseline against which to measure change if those areas are affected by sinking oil.
Oil Reaches Shoreline
Shoreline Cleanup and Assessment Teams (SCAT)—federal, state and BP officials working to assess and determine how cleanup will be conducted, and oversee cleanup operations—confirmed that oil was found on the beach at Chandeleur Islands, a small group of uninhabited barrier islands off the northeast of the Mississippi Delta. The Chandeleur Islands are part of the Breton National Wildlife Refuge.
Successful Controlled Burn
Favorable weather conditions allowed responders to conduct a successful controlled burn operation for the second consecutive day. As part of a coordinated response that combines tactics deployed above water, below water, offshore, and close to coastal areas, controlled burns efficiently remove oil from the open water in an effort to protect shoreline and wildlife.
Emergency Response Stockpiles Arrive
More than 80 flatbed trucks carrying Emergency Ship Salvage Material supplies—part of a managed network of emergency response equipment stockpiles pre-positioned to support and augment U.S. Navy Fleet capabilities to respond to pollution and other events—have arrived at staging areas for immediate deployment.
Cofferdam Drill Ship Inspection Completed
MMS completed its production system inspection for the drill ship Discoverer Enterprise—the vessel that will be used to operate the cofferdam system and process the oily water pumped from the riser plume.
CDC Toxic Substance Monitoring
The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Center for Environmental Health and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry are monitoring the gulf oil spill and offering assistance as needed to lead federal agencies and impacted states and communities.
Oil Cleanup Worker Health & Safety Training
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences is working with BP contractors to provide technical assistance in development and deployment of health and safety training to workers.
New Weather Forecast Website
NOAA’s National Weather Service has created a special forecast website, available at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/.
NOAA Aircraft Missions
NOAA aircraft flew marine mammal survey missions and ocean imaging missions—providing valuable information about the oil thickness and density on the ocean surface.
NPS Incident Management Teams
The National Park Service has activated two incident management teams in the Gulf. Many other park service employees in the area are supporting the response with technical information and assistance.
Aerial Dispersant Spray Missions
Modular Aerial Spray System (MASS) aircraft flew numerous dispersant missions—dispensing the same dispersant chemical being used by BP and the federal responders. These systems are capable of covering up to 250 acres per flight. To ensure nearby residents are informed and protected, the EPA is constantly monitoring air quality in the Gulf area through air monitoring air craft, and fixed and mobile air stations.
By the Numbers to Date:
* Personnel were quickly deployed and more than 10,000 are currently responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife.
* Nearly 270 vessels are responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units.
* Approximately 750,000 of feet of boom (regular and sorbent) have been deployed to contain the spill—and 1.4 million feet are available.
* More than 1.8 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered.
* More than 253,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed. More than 317,000 gallons are available.
* 10 staging areas have been set up to protect vital shoreline in all potentially affected Gulf Coast states (Biloxi, Miss., Panama City, Fla., Pensacola, Fla., Pascagoula, Miss., Dauphin Island, Ala., Port Sulphur, La., Shell Beach, La., Slidell, La., Port Fourchon, La., Venice, La.).
Resources:
* For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
* To contact the Deepwater Horizon Joint Information Center, call (985) 902-5231.
* To volunteer, or to report oiled shoreline, call (866) 448-5816. Volunteer opportunities can also be found here.
* To submit your vessel as a vessel of opportunity skimming system, or to submit alternative response technology, services, or products, call 281-366-5511.
* To report oiled wildlife, call (866) 557-1401. Messages will be checked hourly.
* For information about validated environmental air and water sampling results, visit www.epa.gov/bpspill.
* For National Park Service updates about potential park closures, resources at risk, and NPS actions to protect vital park space and wildlife, visit http://www.nps.gov/aboutus/oil-spill-response.htm.
* To file a claim, or report spill-related damage, call BP’s helpline at (800) 440-0858. A BP fact sheet with additional information is available here. For those who have already pursued the BP claims process and are not satisfied with BP’s resolution, can call the Coast Guard at (800) 280-7118. More information about what types of damages are eligible for compensation under the Oil Pollution Act as well as guidance on procedures to seek that compensation can be found here.
Yes they have an excellent observation and reanalysis database. You can check it out here.
Im bookmarking this, it will come in handy if I am ever doing research. Thanks
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