Tornadoes rip Oklahoma, killing 5; oil spill headed towards Texas
Oklahoma residents are picking up the pieces and surveying the damage after a devastating tornado outbreak that left at least five people dead, dozens injured, and hundreds of millions in damage. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has some amazing images and videos of the tornadoes in his blog. One solace Oklahomans can take in the disaster is that the data taken by scientists during the tornado outbreak may help forecasters issue better tornado warnings in the future. Usually, a proven way to reduce the incidence of dangerous weather phenomena is to schedule a multi-million dollar field experiment to study the phenomena. This is what happened last year, when the largest tornado field study ever conducted, Vortex2, kicked off. The $10 million study deployed an armada of over 100 storm chasing vehicles across the Great Plains, and were disappointed by one of the quietest tornado seasons in history. But it's pretty tough to have two consecutive record quiet tornado seasons in a row, so the Vortex2 program scheduled the study to run this year as well, beginning on May 1. Unfortunately for the residents of Oklahoma, the atmosphere unleashed one of its classic tornado outbreaks yesterday, in a region NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had outlined at "High Risk" for severe weather. The Vortex2 team was ideally positioned to intercept the tornadoes, according to the team of University of Michigan students that has been writing our featured Vortex2 blog, and I am told that they successfully collected what is probably the best data set even taken of a tornado outbreak. This was no mean feat, since yesterday's storms were moving 60 mph, making it extremely difficult to position the chase vehicles to capture the storm's secrets.
Figure 1. The Wakita, OK multiple-vortex tornado of May 10, 2010.
Oil spill may approach Texas early next week
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill has pushed steadily westward along the Louisiana coast, and is expected to reach central Louisiana near Atchafalaya Bay by Thursday, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Winds over the Gulf of Mexico this week will blow from the southeast at 15 - 20 knots, threatening to bring oil to large portions of the Louisiana coast. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower. It appears quite unlikely that oil will get into the Loop Current anytime over the next two weeks, and spread to the Florida Keys and beyond. However, the strong southeast winds are expected to shift more easterly late this week, and drive a westward-moving ocean surface current with a speed of 1 - 2 mph along the west coast of Louisiana late this week (Figure 2). This current may be capable of transporting oil all the way to the Louisiana/Texas border by Monday. However, the concentrations of oil in the water will be much less than what is present close to the blowout, and it is unclear what the potential danger is for the western Louisiana and eastern Texas coasts. The greatest danger is to the Eastern Louisiana coast.
Figure 2. Surface ocean current in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, May 14, at 8pm EDT as forecast by the 8pm EDT run of the NOAA HYCOM model at 8pm EDT on Sunday, May 9, 2010. Note that a strong ocean current near 1 m/s (about 2 mph) is forecast to set up along the Western Louisiana coast, which could take oil close to the Texas offshore waters by Monday. Image credit: NOAA RTOFS.
Next Post
I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. I'll be posting Wednesday morning on some of the latest findings presented at the conference, or discussing yesterday's tornado outbreak.
Jeff Masters
Our first OK Tornado (
Foamy)
2010-05-10 16:51 CSTD
Reader Comments
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U betcha..
He did so a few days ago too and there was nothing.
I don't understand. If there is...there is. If there isn't...there isn't. It's not the end of the world if there isn't.
There's folks on here almost begging for a storm to form. With what's going on in the GOM right now... I'm rooting against anything getting in there or getting started in there.
You can find the prepared testimony of Tim Probert of Halliburton here:
Link
The last page (page 4) is the wellhead schematic, showing the casing layout. The first three pages are worth a read. Halliburton seems to be choosing their words very carefully, as you would expect.
WTO
I didn't know you were using what they're saying. I understand now.
See my post #209 above.
I chuckled and cringed thru most of then,,thus my latest blog entry
Today's 3 ring circus
Posted by: shauntanner, 12:51 PM CDT on May 11, 2010
How are Shaun and Tim doing on their No New Plastic Month journey?
Tune into The Daily Downpour today at 4 p.m. ET, 1 p.m. PT to find out!
Also we will discuss the flooding in Tennessee and the ongoing disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. Listen for the most updated information. Listen here!
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 17 - 21 2010
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, FEATURING AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE ALEUTIANS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST COAST, AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
WEST-CENTRAL CANADA, AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY%u2019S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF A TROUGH INLAND INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST IS NOTED IN TODAY%u2019S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUNS INDICATE A CLOSED 500-HPA LOW DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. SINCE THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BEST REFLECTS THE PRESENCE OF THIS
MID-LEVEL LOW IN ITS 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CHART, IT WAS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY
IN CONSTRUCTING THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART.
ON DAY 6, A 500-HPA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST ALONG ITS TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST RESULTS IN
ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE CHANCES FOR NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS. UNDERNEATH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS, ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
SUPPORT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
A TROUGH INCREASES ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORTS ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN ALASKA. DUE TO A STORM TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE,
ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE STATE.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.
MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND OPERATIONAL
MODEL RUNS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 19 - 25 2010
DURING WEEK 2, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING
A SLIGHT PROGRESSION TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH AN
AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA, AND A WEAK TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST.
THE LARGEST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER (NEGATIVE) REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESULTS IN ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT INCREASES CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE TOOLS DIFFER THE GREATEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH A WEAK
TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST, ENHANCED ODDS FOR NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DEPART THE EAST COAST. LOW PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST IN THE MID-ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PREDICTING ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE GENERALLY WEAK AND
MIXED.
LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ITCZ/EQUATORIAL TROUGH...WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE FA BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. BY THAT TIME...THE PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5
INCHES.
Then cut the pipe above that.
Then slide the valve up to the cut.
Fix it there.
Close the valve.
You will have to contend with a couple of hours with a free-flowing well during the operation.
Oh. And test the whole operation underwater using the subs etc first. In a shallow depth where it can be observed and modified as needed."
Cuz most of the pipe remains suspended in the seawater; and is acted upon by gravity, flotation, and deepwater currents. And we don't know enough to accurately model the tensions on that suspended portion.
To give an idea of what that means... Imagine you are whirling around a long bugie cord studded with pounds and kilograms of fishing weights. And a ninja pops up and slices the cord.
Part of the heavyweight bungy cord is gonna go flying in one direction while you go stumbling and tripping and falling in another direction.
And that ain't all ya got to worry about cuz ya don't know where that portion of the bungy cord whipping towards ya is gonna go. Might snap your eye out, might crack your skull, might crush your windpipe...
Or might miss entirely.
Somewhat the same situation in cutting the suspended pipe. Nothing might happen, and the repair can proceed.
Or the pipe might whip into the BlowoutPreventer-- which appears to be partially working in helping to reduce the outflow down to 5000barrels per day -- and destroy it.
Or the pipe might break off at the wellhead, increasing the flow rate to 30,000barrels per day. Leaving no way to slow the increased flow until a drilling rig successfully completes laying an intercept pipe into the current pipe tunnel, then muds it.
30,000 barrels per day is equivalent to having an ExxonValdiz spill every nine days. Would you risk that knowing it will take at least several weeks (and possibly several months depending on weather, currents, tunnel-placement accuracy, etc) to complete an intercept?
Er,,the riser pipe is capped on one end,,as done by the ROV last Tuesday,that placed a valve on it.
The 2 Leaks remaining are near the BOP.
He's not much of a typist, but posts a nice, relevant collection of plots.
Looks too good to be true LOL.
In the meantime, resevoirs here are at 26% capacity, and it will take several weeks of rains to change that to any noticeable degree.
Speaking of challenges, another big kahuna, as far as I am concerned in the world of tropical weather, has come out with his idea on the hurricane season and mentions both Dr. Gray and myself as being overdone on the upcoming season. It's someone I have a great deal of respect for and reference, Ryan Maue, and you can see that here. I see what he is saying, in fact his idea looks a lot like 2007 which plainly was overdone on my part. However, if one looks at the May NAO with reversing ninos in a warm AMO, one can see how this is different from 2007. The years 1995, 1998 and 2005 all had similar patterns to this, and the water is warmer already than all three of those years. It will be an interesting test of the theory I have on this, as plainly the negative NAO is dominating the May weather pattern. In fact it did that in 2008 also, and that of course is the year I think this is most like of the last four. So it comes down to looking at this year vs. 2007 as far as that particular idea goes... But Ryan's ideas certainly have my attention (he opined them personally to me when I was at FSU in late April). You can read about it here in his own words and see his reference to myself and CSU (he says Gray, but Bill is not the guy in charge anymore as I understand it).
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
by joe
xcool...
Yeah, I realise that ALL the options are fraught with peril!
DRILL FASTER>>>>>
By The Times-Picayune
May 11, 2010, 2:19PM
Times-Picayune reporters Bob Marshall and Mark Schleifstein give the latest update on the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Oil spill video: Times-Picayune Tuesday update
Assuming again.....Accuweather posts the same forecast models that every other site puts up for display.
weaker air layer wowwww not gooding all""""
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W-CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111924Z - 112130Z
NWRN TX THROUGH SWRN AND W CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR STORM
INITIATION. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PROBABLE.
A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM SRN MO SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN WW
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDS THROUGH WRN AND NWRN TX
INTO SWRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED IN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR FROM NWRN TX THROUGH WRN OK
BOOSTING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
RESERVOIR OF 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE THETA-E AXIS. THE SCALLOPED APPEARANCE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STILL CAPPED...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXTENT AND
TIMING OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN
TOWARDS EVENING...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WV IMAGERY ALSO
SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE MOVING EWD THROUGH WRN TX...AND
DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COULD PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S OVER NWRN TX ALONG THE DRYLINE.
GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INCREASING 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE WITH TIME...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY...CONDITIONAL UPON
INITIATION.
..DIAL.. 05/11/2010
So do I....but even using their maps I do not see the low which you speak of. Could you give us a specific area to look for it in? Caribbean? Tropical Atlantic? Gulf of Mexico?
If that's the case, I don't see anything in the Atlantic on any model. GFS seems to be spitting out systems 10-14 days out, but it did so 1-2 weeks ago in the east Pac and nothing developed.
weaker
precip
Well!! That looks good for August. Indeed!
the casing ranges in sizes. Any casing 20 in or larger is only for surface casing and is rarely set deeper than a few hundred feet. Depending on the depth of the well there is typically 3 strings of casing cemented into the well and the production casing is NEVER more than 9 5/8 in inside diameter. Most wells have 5 1/2 in production casing."
Thanks for contributing your expertise. I only know what is being reported, and am well aware that reporters often mix various statements of fact in a manner that tends to be misleading.
Neither do I.
Don't dismiss the EPAC incident though. That thing was very close to being an invest. It moved off into dry air and destroyed itself, but the GFS did a good job sniffing the thing out. The fact that it didn't develop will be used against the model, but this is one of the few times I will compliment the GFS, as in this particular situation it sniffed out the MJO quite well 15 days in advance, and stuck with the system for 2 weeks on pretty much every run. We nearly had it.
But the well was a Deep Water Well,the TransOcean method is vastly different than Drilling in the shallows.
The casing where the Cement is poured was only 2 days curing..and the testimony today shows the well kicked weeks before. There was a Heated debate discussion in Houston,,from BP,the rig,TransOcean and Haliburton.
What is ironic is they removed the drill mud and replaced it with SeaWater .to not create any spill or pollution form the Mud..a lot will be centered on that.
But rest assured,when the Bubble reached the surface,,the methane Bubble,it went up and past the Rig tower,thats 240 ft above the Waterline.
Then it went KA-boom.
And here we are,..22 days later.
Yeah...that's the one.
It'll get going soon. Badly I'm afraid in the Atlantic. And with what's going on in the GOM now, a complete disaster is not out of the question.
They better get that underwater oil volcano plugged/taken care of somehow...and soon.
Also noticed a met from your country is one of the visiting meterologists on the tropical desk at HPC.
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