Oil continues impacting Louisiana coast; storms for Caribbean and SE U.S. waters?
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have cleared, and we should get a good view late this afternoon on how far south the oil spill has penetrated into the Loop Current. Statements from NOAA and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data imply that most of the oil that was pulled southwards to the northern boundary of the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. Some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. This tongue of oil consists of "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams," according to NOAA. I wish they'd provide more information about what the sensitivity of various ecosystems may be to oil at these concentrations. It would also be good to have more information about what the concentration of the toxic dispersants are in the surface waters of the spill, but I expect no one knows. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. SAR imagery from last night and this morning continue to show a large plume of oil being drawn southeastward from the oil spill location into the northern boundary of the Loop Current. With winds expected to remain light over the coming week, I expect oil will continue to be drawn southwards into the Loop Current and the counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to its north. Much of the oil caught in this eddy may circulate around the eddy in 3 or so days, and potentially enter the Loop Current early next week. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is moving chaotically 10+ miles in a single day, making prediction difficult.
Figure 1. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:56am EDT May 20, 2010, by the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) RadarSat-1 satellite. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.
Figure 2. Latest oil trajectory forecast from NOAA for this Saturday.
Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU
Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame next week. It is possible that a tropical depression could form from this tropical disturbance, though most of the models indicate that high levels of wind shear will make this improbable.
Southeast U.S. coastal storm next week could become subtropical
A region of cloudiness and showers just east of the Bahama Islands will develop into a strong extratropical storm over the weekend. This storm is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast Sunday and Monday, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 6 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Monday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil westwards towards Texas. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a more detailed discussion of the potential development of this system in his blog this morning.
Tornadoes and large hail pound Oklahoma
A significant severe weather outbreak occurred last night over Oklahoma and surrounding states, with 25 tornado reports, 8 reports of damaging winds, and 23 hail reports. Severe weather wunderblogger Dr. Rob Carver has the details in his wunderblog this morning. The Vortex2 field project had a perfect opportunity to intercept these tornadoes, since they were slow moving and occurred over relatively unpopulated regions. The University of Michigan students writing our Vortex2 featured blog will have an update when their schedule allows.
Figure 3. Baseball-sized hail pounds a suburban Oklahoma City swimming pool, making huge splashes, in this remarkable video. The action gets really intense about 90 seconds into the video.
I'll be back with a new post Friday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Isn't it cheaper these days just to buy an hdtv?
Yup, they like to spice up the stories with false statements.
Once the low has matured the heaviest rainfall is actually on the western side, which surprises me. Since most of the models show this low in the vicinity of you guys, you can expect moisture from this system but dont expect a tropical downpour. the moisture field is relatively shallow compared to tropical systems.
The blizzards I remember well.
The warm period for 30 days slipped my attention.
Above freezing, even at night, on those dates in Alaska?
Well color me pink salmon! :)
I think you've won this one...so I fold my May 22 prediction.
I came close, though! :) "
Horseshoes and handgrenades, so no playing with Cat.5s. And no takebacks on folds...
...There's a difference between adventurous (Cat.3) and suicidal (Cat.5). And I strongly suspect that the foolhardy divide is passed in low-end eF3 winds.
Have you considered taking skydiving training in a vertical windtunnel (last 2 paragraphs) to keep yourself oriented and somewhat in control while tethered?
Ya but multiple monitors allows you to study things in great depth.
Please tune in when it's time. I want to satisfy your curiosity on my abilities in a hurricane! :)
Growing frustration as oil invades La.
Local officials from coastal Louisiana called on President Barack Obama to take a larger role in the fight against oil invading the Louisiana coast.
Using heavy construction equipment, Guardsmen from the 225th Engineer Brigade built a wall of rock and sand to fill gaps in the barrier islands in Lafourche Parish. Soldiers hauled, emplaced, and compacted over 2500 cubic yards of rock and sand to close off this 420 foot gap near Thunder Bayou.
Um, there is a drill pipe inside that 21" riser.
Also, they are likely terrified of increasing back pressure against what I still think is likely the main leak ... the kink in the riser above the BOP. Increased pressure = higher flow rate through that leak = more sandblasting = even bigger hole.
I regard the current activities with the 4 inch pipe as little more than PR. It's analogous to placing your hand over some holes in an oscillating sprinkler when the hose connected to it is gushing water from a leak upstream. They don't want to kink the hose near the sprinkler for fear of tearing the hose apart at the upstream leak. Kinda.
That has been and remains my perspective on this, until BP proves otherwise. They are worried about riser erosion, and going very slow on the kill shot because the rubber/mud/whatever may end up blocking the riser kink instead of the BOP. The 21" riser is in no way capable of handling the resultant pressure, and the BOP is a question mark.
No easy answers, and there are a lot of very smart folks working on this 24/7. They are *not* dragging their butts, and they long ago thought of and discarded the "obvious" solutions that are being put forward here.
Bravo.
Yep i agree.....actually some of the EMO's in Florida has now stated that some of the best Scientist they have know have stated that most of the oil in the GOM will evaporate, as it is a lite Sweet Crude, before harming the Keys! I certainly hope they are correct but, i have my doubts. I don't mean to deminish what is happening in the Nothern Gulf Coast states as they are being affected.
Multiple hdtvs?
Low center of gravity and lean forward. Don't let the wind catch you, because that's when it gets real nasty.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Thanks 456 ... I was wondering about that just last night ... how many monitors? You sure do put them to good use.
I have a 22 inch and a 20 inch hooked to my docking station for my labtop. Also a one terrabit hard drive connected.
Avoid turning your back to the wind.
If you cannot maintain a stance, the ground is your friend...crawl if you have to.
Lashing yourself down is not only allowed, but encouraged.
Etc...
Good afternoon everyone!
Hey Pat... around/in the terminus of the delta.. the bird foot area there is a shadow, or darker area in the bays close to shore.. is it oil? Has that area been that contaminated?
My guess is that the storm starts out heavily weighted to the east and north like it is right now, which is typical of these kinds of systems, but once the low deepens, starts to become warm-core, and begins moving west, rainbands may start wrapping around the western side and intensifying as they encounter the Gulf Stream. At this point, as the low will be mostly driven by tropical processes, the warmer SSTs of the Gulf Stream will drive stronger rainbands on the west side of the storm.
Mmmmm, chocolate covered babes...(I know, i know. Don't spoil it for me).
Not the same hardware but all my monitors are linked to one system. So the cursor, for example, goes from one end to the next in a continuous flow
Not really..
Canes in da water,..
BP's Oil is in da water..
Shak's in da water..
I reck'n ya best Best get some bigger booms chief..
Would we expect similar condition to Andrea (very little rain and severe beach erosion) if it developed sub tropical characteristics?
Hummmph,go figure..
Geeze, that picture makes you laugh even though you its a disaster out there. :)
It happens :)
One February we were playing tennis on our outdoor courts (don't have indoor) on Valentines Day.
Then again....in 1999 the Great Valentine's Day Storm dumped 8 feet of snow on us in 3 days, twice that of the blizzard last winter.
Lol, that would be fun, but I have no idea what my "melting" point is. 75 degrees F, the hottest we get here in the summer, is pretty warm for me already. I haven't experienced anything over 80 degrees. I do wish the winters weren't so long, but I'm sure I will experience lower latitudes someday :)
If this stays off shore a SubTropical system is often more severe to Beach erosion as the greater wind field is further from the Center in most cases!
That would be oil in da marsh irg, sadly.
That was my original point. Aren't comparable size hdtv's cheaper than monitors now? I got a 32 inch 720p over 3 years ago for less than 500 dollars. I know they've come way down in price since then. When i hook the laptop up to the tv the picture on the tv is superior.
It depends on how far south it gets. Nothing at the moment to tell me its going to get as far south as below 30N and west of 75W to deliver the tightest gradient along the GA/FL border.
For now, I'm seeing the strongest gradient affect the GA/SC border go north.
If all else fails, see if you can find a small, wooden outhouse sized water pump shed with water pipes going down at least 100 feet. Take the strongest leather strap hanging on the wall (the first one you grab will be "no good"), then lash yourself to the pipe. If you feel your legs flying upwards, you're in the 'core', so it's ok to open your eyes and look up. Don't worry about debris impacts, because apparently that doesn't happen. :>)
Have fun catching a Major one this year. If you need, I've got a 14-gauge stainless steel, padded medieval fighting helmet that you can borrow. It could take a baseball bat at full swing and, while it would ring your bell, you'd be healthy but wiser afterward.
A more precise expectation would be 1 to 2 inches with the highest possible extreme 3 inches and the lowest possible extreme less than an inch. Just from the system alone.
You damned skippy...I will repeat Floods rule of hurricanes:
CAT3 I will stand and enjoy (provided I have adequate shelter)
CAT4 at least 100 miles away
CAT5 two states separation, minimum
These are good rules, I feel, for those who don't have a death wish
Ahhh, but how does it stand up to a 2x4 (I hear they're your bane)
Those are perfect rules, and most everyone in here right now in the path of a hurricane should follow them.
Let's the pros handle it. We'll show you inside.
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