Little change to 90L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on May 25, 2010

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The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.


Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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1867. Skyepony (Mod)
3:33 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting A4Guy:
question - wasn't NOAA going to release their forecase for the Atl season last week? Have not seen anything. Colo Satate should be next week.


All the NOAA officials were in Washington for the Oiled Gulf mess hearings so it has been rescheduled for tomorrow the 27th.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 196 Comments: 38774
1866. twhcracker
3:14 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
to tune of beverly hillbillies:

come and listen to a story bout a project called top kill

it all started from a tune known as drill baby drill

Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1865. twhcracker
3:11 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


Could survive in the Gulf? Those are some long odds this morning, ya think?

However...I am prepared to fly out to Ft. Lauderdale, FL if I need to do so.


Hey Oz, I dont know if people are aware or not... the new international airport, Northwest fla airport just opened and they have all kinds of grand opening introductory deals on flights. Like you can fly from there to orlando, nashville and ohio somewhere one way for 49 bucks.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
1864. kimoskee
3:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Blogs quiet...
I guess all the singing ran them away...
Better stick with singing in the shower!!!
LOL
Have a great day. I'll check back later. Peace.
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1863. kimoskee
2:58 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Key Largo
Montego
Baby why don't we go...
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1862. smarterthanyou
2:51 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Bermuda
Bahama
c'mon pretty Mama
1861. kimoskee
2:48 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
There is also Bahamas, Barbados,Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Belize and I am sure there are more.


The power of the internet. Amazing!!!
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1860. MahFL
2:45 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Shear is down to 10 Kts over 90L.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3735
1859. stormwatcherCI
2:42 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting kimoskee:
Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore?
There is also Bahamas, Barbados,Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Belize and I am sure there are more.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8435
1858. A4Guy
2:26 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
question - wasn't NOAA going to release their forecase for the Atl season last week? Have not seen anything. Colo Satate should be next week.
Member Since: June 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 668
1857. BVI
2:19 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting kimoskee:
Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore?


Tortola, British Virgin Islands
Member Since: April 9, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 87
1856. kimoskee
2:06 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore?
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1855. nocaneindy
2:04 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Something I've noticed is how SAL has been lowering off the coast of Africa for the last 10 days or so. Now today it's almost completely gone. Once we get to Cape Verde season, and if this stays the same, watch out!

Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 515
1854. eddye
2:04 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
SO U PEOPLE THINK THIS COULD BE HEADING TO FLORIDA
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1316
1853. Cavin Rawlins
2:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Saint Kitts Photo Gallery - a special blog on September 19 2009.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1852. nrtiwlnvragn
2:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
1851. Cavin Rawlins
2:01 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting kimoskee:


What island you on?

So far we have Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, any more?


Saint Kitts
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1850. kimoskee
1:58 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
So far May has been wetter than normal here. It rains like almost everyday now.


What island you on?

So far we have Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, any more?
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1849. Cavin Rawlins
1:56 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


One of the joys I take away from participating in this blog is that it is a truly "international" forum.


Truly a mixing pot....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1848. pottery
1:56 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:


One of the joys I take away from participating in this blog is that it is a truly "international" forum.

Very true!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
1847. CycloneOz
1:56 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Taco's looking for help today on where he should position himself for chasing tornadoes.

He is currently in Amarillo.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3918
1846. pottery
1:55 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting kimoskee:


I keep telling you to send it to Jamaica!!! Still waiting...

Stay safe and dry!!!

Sorry for the delay.
I am working on it!
But talk to Keeperofthegate, he seems to have the 'ability' LOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
1845. kimoskee
1:53 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting pottery:
Well, I tried to get out of here, to go to the City.
But the Highway is at a standstill. Apparently there is water over the road in several areas.
More rain is coming----


I keep telling you to send it to Jamaica!!! Still waiting...

Stay safe and dry!!!
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
1844. CycloneOz
1:53 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'm not very good with the geography of the individual islands :( Also not sure if he is Trinidad or Tobago.


One of the joys I take away from participating in this blog is that it is a truly "international" forum.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3918
1843. Cavin Rawlins
1:51 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
So far May has been wetter than normal here. It rains like almost everyday now.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1842. Cavin Rawlins
1:50 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting pottery:

I am in Central Trinidad.
Measured 133 mm at my location.
DDR, in North Trinidad, in the foothills of the North Range, says he got 255 mm !!! from 10 pm last night.


Yea, i expect the higher elevation would account for more rainfall.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1841. pottery
1:47 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


132mm for Tobago.

Trinidad picked up 170mm.

I am in Central Trinidad.
Measured 133 mm at my location.
DDR, in North Trinidad, in the foothills of the North Range, says he got 255 mm !!! from 10 pm last night.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
1840. Cavin Rawlins
1:46 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'm not very good with the geography of the individual islands :( Also not sure if he is Trinidad or Tobago.


Trinidad...


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1839. nrtiwlnvragn
1:44 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


132mm for Tobago.

Trinidad picked up 170mm.


I'm not very good with the geography of the individual islands :( Also not sure if he is Trinidad or Tobago.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
1838. Cavin Rawlins
1:42 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC plot shows you got 132mm!


132mm for Tobago.

Trinidad picked up 170mm.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1837. weathermanwannabe
1:41 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
90e looking better and better in each frame....It will probably quiet things down for the NW Caribbean for the June start of the Atlantic season if it takes off and makes it into the first storm of the e-pac season.....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9342
1836. Cavin Rawlins
1:41 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


Yea just took a peak at the sat presentation and convection is trying to consolidate down there and upper conditions also appear somewhat favorable. All iam saying is land interaction maybe an issue with this low and could be the reason the euro dropped it. Not buying the ships intensity forecast at this point to hurricane. I'll go with the LGEM.


I'll have to agree you there. The LGEM is a relaible intensity guidance.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1835. nrtiwlnvragn
1:41 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting pottery:
Well, I tried to get out of here, to go to the City.
But the Highway is at a standstill. Apparently there is water over the road in several areas.
More rain is coming----


HPC plot shows you got 132mm!
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11276
1834. hurricane23
1:39 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


So you are saying you're not enthusiastic on it developing given the satellite presentations and conditions in the environment. But the ECM dropped it.


Yea just took a peak at the sat presentation and convection is trying to consolidate down there and upper conditions also appear somewhat favorable. All iam saying is land interaction maybe an issue with this low and could be the reason the euro dropped it. Not buying the ships intensity forecast at this point to hurricane. I'll go with the LGEM.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
1833. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:39 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep epac disturbance. ECM has nothing.
just because you can't see it does not mean it ain't there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
1831. pottery
1:36 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Well, I tried to get out of here, to go to the City.
But the Highway is at a standstill. Apparently there is water over the road in several areas.
More rain is coming----
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24677
1830. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:34 PM GMT on May 26, 2010


90e appears on coarse convective feedback shrinking in main zone but maintaining with v convective feedback from a feeder band that has dev to its se closer to coast heavy flooding rains are likly as system contines in its developement it appears a TD is forming in this region at this time
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54864
1828. Cavin Rawlins
1:32 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep epac disturbance. ECM has nothing.


So you are saying you're not enthusiastic on it developing given the satellite presentations and conditions in the environment. But the ECM dropped it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1827. hurricane23
1:28 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


Are you referring to 90E?


Yep epac disturbance. ECM has nothing.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
1826. stillwaiting
1:26 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
me talk'n 90L,not sure about adrian...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1825. Cavin Rawlins
1:25 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1823. stillwaiting
1:25 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
JaX long range looks interesting,the LLC where convection formed is a smaller warm core surface feature rotating sw around the perifery of the ULL, its also over the GS,if it doesn't get tagged in the next 12hrs,it never will imo,if the surface feature continues on its current path it'll be coming very close to FL's east coast w/heavy rains and winds to 35mph,imo..
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1822. Cavin Rawlins
1:23 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting hurricane23:


I'am not to enthusiastic on this thing developing. Most recent runs from the ECM have dropped this low completly and the LGEM has modest intensification and only brings it up to 46kts.


Are you referring to 90E?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1821. hurricane23
1:19 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting stillwaiting:
90L now has banding features,wrapping into the COC....


I'am not to enthusiastic on this thing developing. Most recent runs from the ECM have dropped this low completly and the LGEM has modest intensification and only brings it up to 46kts.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13840
1820. gator23
1:17 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Good source is to read through the model descriptions on the NHC site.


Read it. I was half right. Thanks for the info.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
1819. IKE
1:17 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting CycloneOz:
Actually, IKE and I first met during a TS...Erin it was...back in August 2007.

I went on WU and told everyone I was intercepting the system. IKE responded that I might be wasting my time doing that.

I responded back by laying into him, because the reason for my trip was to test the equipment I was beginning to collect to do what I do now so well!

I got banned for laying into IKE! (Remember that, my friend? :)



I was actually only 30 feet north of the center when that storm passed overhead. It was a great success for me and PensacolaDoug, as he was the one who put me there right on time for landfall.


I think I remember it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1818. stillwaiting
1:15 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
90L now has banding features,wrapping into the COC....
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1817. weathermanwannabe
1:15 PM GMT on May 26, 2010
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
They must be doing something pretty big right now. Lots of mud just got stirred up.


Some of that is just prop wash stirring things up from some of the ROVs.....Looks like its "back to normal" right now......I'm waiting for big tube to come down and drop a ton of concrete....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9342

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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