Long range oil spill forecast
Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.
Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.
The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.
Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.
Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.
Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.
Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Wow, still no update from Jeff Masters. I also see that the GFS is showing a system in the GOM for two consecutive runs. And the wave train continues.
dr m will update hils blog when he feels like updateing the blog
Watching dry weather move east from Africa, and East across the Pacific. I must be reading that wrong, but the legend says time progresses and it moves down.
It seems you will be busy chasing down storms this hurricane season. I hope it is not as bad as they think it will be.
Could the CFS SST anomalies forecast get lucky and be right for once?
They went down to average or still are above the average?
A quick post from Friday:
And for a conditional event, a nice east coast trough split at 700mb along 20N 70W for the first of next week. Broad cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean that may/may not coincide with the passage of tropical wave.
530 AM EDT MON JUN 07 2010
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA EXTENDS E
TO THE NW BAHAMAS...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTED FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS N-NE TO NEAR 28N72W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE
UNITED STATES COAST THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE SE...REACHING FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN STALL
TUE NIGHT FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN LIFT N AND
DISSIPATING BY THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 27N INTO THE
BAHAMAS THU NIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO
THE NE WATERS LATE FRI.
nic
They are still above climatology, but not as much as they were previously.
I'll 2nd that...
what happened to the generator powered lighting you had priced? The flares seem to work even if it were only a temporary solution.
AOI
AOI
AOI
Hi Storm- Now that doesn't look good for this time of year. All that juice about to traverse into the EATL.
Our Meteorologist in Wilmington said we needed to watch the disturbance in the Leeward Islands..sounds like the hurricane season is getting active..
So, the Bermuda high will block storms from going out to sea or moving up the east coast? Florida got walloped in 2004 and we all know what happened in 2005. Does the Bermuda high maintain its strength/position the entire season or does it change?
Thanks
Another storm ? We have not had one yet in the Atlantic basin.
It's going to be nasty this afternoon / evening. Stronger than yesterday if you can believe that. My area, Jupiter, had nasty storms up till 10pm yesterday. Thunder was the deep billowing kind that shook a picture off the wall. Shotty installation, Maybe, lol.
it changes, but a stronger high means the storm moves further west..
yeah, the PW at tampa is at 2.37 right now! With an LI of -8!
Man I can't wait till we get back to a southeast flow though, we haven't more then a little brief downpour the past 10 days accept for thurs night when we had a 5 inch in one hour slammer.
This westerly flow pattern usually has more rain coming off the water than this, I'm really surprised how dry its its been on the west coast of Florida lately considering the deep tropical air mass, we usually get numerous trains of thunderstorms off the gulf in this pattern. Its been nothing but east coast favoring last week or so.
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