Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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3351. wunderkidcayman 4:35 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
is this...does this...wait... is this a td now...no...wait...yes...what is goin on here Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5374

3352. Tazmanian 4:35 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
3345. AussieStorm 4:34 AM GMT on June 13, 2010 Quoting Tazmanian: was that needed???? that commet he posted is way pass the page we are on all so hes a downcaster dont think any one needed too see that commets post If you haven't noticed,I have since removed it. ok Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111306

3353. CosmicEvents 4:36 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: i said that same thing when we had IKE in 2008 Taz, we've known each other for years. It's ok to get excited about cyclones, but keep things reasonable. This is the first of many things to spin up this year. If you start calling everyone Andrew and Ike Quoting NCHurricane2009: Sometimes we put models on a pedestal too much. Models can give some insight, but when you see something happening now (like 92L having a well-defined center) and the models telling you it doesnt' for instance, ignore that model. This is very true. I've dated a few models and while they did have some good features, I wouldn't put any faith in any of their tropical cyclone forecasting abilities. Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5091

3354. xcool 4:36 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3355. JLPR2 4:36 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: is this...does this...wait... is this a td now...no...wait...yes...what is goin on here hahaha! LOL! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7482

3356. Levi32 4:38 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
216 hours...round 2? Wave behind 92L lol. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

3357. Hurricanes101 4:38 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Does anyone know what the atcf link is so you can view it on a mobile phone? I need to get to bed, but I am going to check the 2am TWO and the atcf update from my cell Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

3358. Drakoen 4:39 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting wunderkidcayman: is this...does this...wait... is this a td now...no...wait...yes...what is goin on here Looks like it was made from the NHC's OFC Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3359. Alockwr21 4:40 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
No matter what happens with this, the fact is we ALREADY have something this big that has formed not even mid way through June... Member Since: September 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 724

3360. NCHurricane2009 4:40 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
This is how you know what the NHC is intending to do by 5 AM. If by 2 AM the TWO says something like "The disturbance SW of the Cape Verde Islands continues to become well-organized. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, a tropical depression may be forming" then the tropical depression would be declared by 5 AM EDT, espeically if it is in a red circle. They like to use the phrase "if current trends continue," that's how you know if something is about to be declared. But if its in an orange circle at 2 AM, probably have to wait till 11 AM or 5 PM in the aftrenoon before something gets declared. Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

3361. FLWeatherFreak91 4:40 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting scott39: Do you think they might have some problems getting a grip on 92L, as far as intensity and track, because they have never dealt with one like this in June before? I don't know anything about that question. But I imagine they don't discredit development due to lack of climatological support if the model believes conditions are favorable. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

3362. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:41 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
658 WHXX04 KWBC 122320 CHGQLM ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST STORM POSITION HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT) 0 5.9 31.0 275./ 8.9 6 7.3 32.0 324./16.6 12 7.6 33.1 284./11.6 18 7.9 34.5 284./13.9 24 8.1 34.5 332./ 1.7 30 8.6 35.8 294./14.0 36 9.1 36.5 302./ 8.3 42 9.7 36.9 331./ 7.5 48 10.8 37.8 321./13.7 54 11.8 38.8 314./13.8 60 12.6 39.8 309./13.6 66 13.4 40.9 305./12.9 72 14.2 42.5 298./17.1 78 14.9 43.4 304./11.5 84 15.3 44.9 285./14.9 90 16.3 46.2 309./16.2 96 16.6 47.4 284./12.0 102 16.9 48.5 282./10.9 108 17.0 49.7 274./11.2 114 17.8 50.7 310./12.4 120 18.5 51.8 304./12.5 126 18.8 52.6 291./ 8.6 Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

3363. mcluvincane 4:41 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Well I'm tired (yawn) I'm heading to bed. I'll see you guys in the morning. By the way the current time over the system is 1:30 AM. 0300 UTC Have a great night all! Nothing will kill this massive invest it will b longed lived its a sighing of the season unlike last year. My guess it lives and hits the east coast Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

3364. wfyweather 4:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I don't think it will develop into a depression by morning. But maybe sometime tomorrow if it can maintain its organization. Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

3365. Drakoen 4:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I'm out. Goodnight everyone Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29010

3366. CaneWarning 4:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
We've got a TD. Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

3367. scott39 4:42 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting NCHurricane2009: This is how you know what the NHC is intending to do by 5 AM. If by 2 AM the TWO says something like "The disturbance SW of the Cape Verde Islands continues to become well-organized. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, a tropical depression may be forming" then the tropical depression would be declared by 5 AM EDT, espeically if it is in a red circle. They like to use the phrase "if current trends continue," that's how you know if something is about to be declared. But if its in an orange circle at 2 AM, probably have to wait till 11 AM or 5 PM in the aftrenoon before something gets declared. Do you think its a TD right now, In your opinion? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

3368. Levi32 4:43 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: I'm out. Goodnight everyone Night Drak. Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25439

3369. JLPR2 4:44 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: 658 WHXX04 KWBC 122320 CHGQLM ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST STORM POSITION HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT) 0 5.9 31.0 275./ 8.9 6 7.3 32.0 324./16.6 12 7.6 33.1 284./11.6 18 7.9 34.5 284./13.9 24 8.1 34.5 332./ 1.7 30 8.6 35.8 294./14.0 36 9.1 36.5 302./ 8.3 42 9.7 36.9 331./ 7.5 48 10.8 37.8 321./13.7 54 11.8 38.8 314./13.8 60 12.6 39.8 309./13.6 66 13.4 40.9 305./12.9 72 14.2 42.5 298./17.1 78 14.9 43.4 304./11.5 84 15.3 44.9 285./14.9 90 16.3 46.2 309./16.2 96 16.6 47.4 284./12.0 102 16.9 48.5 282./10.9 108 17.0 49.7 274./11.2 114 17.8 50.7 310./12.4 120 18.5 51.8 304./12.5 126 18.8 52.6 291./ 8.6 Raises eyebrow TD 92L? What the hell! XD Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7482

3370. xcool 4:44 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
hmm Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3371. NCHurricane2009 4:45 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: I don't know anything about that question. But I imagine they don't discredit development due to lack of climatological support if the model believes conditions are favorable. Yeah, I think computer models use initial conditions (current and previous pressure and temperature fields in the atmposhere at observation posts, with extrapolation between observation posts), and then use equations that evolve the conditions to project the future. Each model may use a different equation than another model, giving different spreads. No model can perfectly model everything, we don't know exact conditions between weather stations, and we don't know everything about our atmosphere. Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 277 Comments: 3357

3372. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Raises eyebrow TD 92L? What the hell! XD i know thats what i got forom the site no changes no additions Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

3373. stillwaiting 4:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
If 92L continues to consolidate and deepen it'll be a TD by 11am,possibly alex within 24hrs...and going south of 17.5N until it hits atleast 65W.....and at that point depends where the TUTT is at it could aid in stregthening a TC if it goes south of the TUTT... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

3374. wfyweather 4:46 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
does that mean its a depression? cuz it says tropical depression 92l Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

3375. Xyrus 4:47 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: i know thats what i got forom the site no changes no additions I swear they read this blog and are now just deliberately messing with people. :D

3377. 7544 4:48 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
hmmmmm Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5921

3378. AussieStorm 4:48 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting JLPR2: Raises eyebrow TD 92L? What the hell! XD yeah um, what the...... maybe they are hedging there bets. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13249

3379. scott39 4:48 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Is 92L a TD or not? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

3380. Tazmanian 4:48 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
we have a TD? Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111306

3381. ElConando 4:48 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
They are called those from time to time. I have seen invests be labeled that. I can't tell you anything more than that. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

3382. JLPR2 4:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Xyrus: I swear they read this blog and are now just deliberately messing with people. :D ha! that makes sense LOL! Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7482

3383. will45 4:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
it says tropical depression invest so thats weird in itself Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994

3384. CaneWarning 4:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I think they'll call it a TD at the next update. Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667

3385. scott39 4:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I need to go take my blood pressure medicine! Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

3386. xcool 4:49 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
huh imlost Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3387. hydrus 4:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm: Remember, all the ingredients are all there and they are there above normal levels, anything can happen, even in June. 20%, much more chance than the last wave they put 0% on. SAL ain't a problem. Shear isn't really a problem. Only thing i can see that might stop it from developing is it's position. It would have the centripetal boost if it gains some latitude. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14220

3388. mcluvincane 4:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Its official td1 Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

3389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 4:50 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting wfyweather: does that mean its a depression? cuz it says tropical depression 92l it means that they are suggesting to the NHC that 92l is a poss depression but NHC gets to make the call theres is just a recommendation Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40334

3390. 7544 4:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
dizzy now who knows Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5921

3391. ElConando 4:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting scott39: I need to go take my blood pressure medicine! LMAO Its a blog but then again I get the same away about sports so i'm not judging. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

3392. Hurricanes101 4:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting mcluvincane: Its official td1 its not official Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

3393. CybrTeddy 4:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Not a TD gang, they always call invests 'Tropical Depression 9L" on those updates. Member Since:* July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20178

3394. xcool 4:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
i think we got a td1 Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

3395. stillwaiting 4:51 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
I knew it!!!!and it begins!!!,I hope this season is exciting but hope people prepare and stay safe,I worry for the 2nd and 3rd world Islands nations though.... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

3396. taco2me61 4:52 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting xcool: huh imlost Hey me too xcool I just donnot know what to think about this one. Taco :o) Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

3397. Hurricanes101 4:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting stillwaiting: I knew it!!!!,and it begins!!!,awsome I hope this season is exciting but hope people prepare and stay safe,I worry for the 2nd and 3rd world Islands nations though.... chill out its not official Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6902

3398. ElConando 4:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: it means that they are suggesting to the NHC that 92l is a poss depression but NHC gets to make the call theres is just a recommendation ^^ That is what is that Jogged my memory. I knew it was not official from the NHC but for the life of me could not remember what those meant. Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

3399. AussieStorm 4:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Xyrus: I swear they read this blog and are now just deliberately messing with people. :D Quoting JLPR2: ha! that makes sense LOL! Maybe that's why they labeled that wave 0% also, to just mess with us. Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13249

3400. weathersp 4:53 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting hydrus: It would have the centripetal boost if it gains some latitude. Yes, but if it gets above 15N and is decapitated. 92L (NOT A TD) is walking a very fine line right now. Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4112

3401. wfyweather 4:54 AM GMT on June 13, 2010
If i had to guess, nhc's next update will still be a low potential or a low end medium. They are gonna be conservative. Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

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