Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

CMC doesn't develop it into a TD until maybe before it reaches puerto rico.. and then off to the Bahamas..

3693. Tropicsweatherpr 6:52 AM AST on June 13, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Weather456:
Other than 92L there appears to be no areas of interest out there.



Good morning 456. What is your take seeing the first visible images of the structure of 92L?

I'm seeing TD 1 by tonight.

I have seen this classic signature too many times in the past and it always leads to a depression. It first starts out with a leading convective band as we saw yesterday which bands around the southern portion of the storm with the center right on the northern edge. The next stage is the development of thunderstorms NE of the center and consolidation.

Quoting IKE:


I'm not sure...my guess would be yes, near the coast...10-20 miles?

This has been addressed by a few people. Oil is not likely to be picked up and dispersed far inland. Storm surge areas, definitely, if there is oil in the water. Beyond that, the consensus seems to be not very likely. Perhaps someone can recall the reason well enough to explain it once more. I think atmoaggie and Dr. Masters each explained why a couple or three weeks ago.

Why isnt the goverment bringing in the troops of all branches to the gulf coast and strategically attacking this disaster in the water and land? We need our military for this yesterday! Its to overwelming for BP and the coast guard!!

Quoting scott39:
That sounds catostrophic for our fresh water supply and everything else that goes along with a TC!

All depends on which way the winds are blowing. You get a nice size storm that stays to the east of the area the winds are off shore and would blow stuff back out into the gulf.

The CV season will start when Alex is named.

We can thank the AEJ for 92L not just for the wave but for the spin so far south.

The innocent victims of BP.


Tragic site at the Rescue Centre, Louisiana. Rescued pelicans covered in that toxic oil. These ones are about to be cleaned. Not all will survive.


One of those pelicans being scrubbed of the oil. The volunteers are doing an amazing job

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


This has been addressed by a few people. Oil is not likely to be picked up and dispersed far inland. Storm surge areas, definitely, if there is oil in the water. Beyond that, the consensus seems to be not very likely. Perhaps someone can recall the reason well enough to explain it once more. I think atmoaggie and Dr. Masters each explained why a couple or three weeks ago.

I wish someone could show the explanation on that, because i dont know how they know, its never happened before! I hope and pray thier theory is right.Im not for being an alarmist, only wanting to be proactive as possible with whats to come.

Quoting marknmelb:


All depends on which way the winds are blowing. You get a nice size storm that stays to the east of the area the winds are off shore and would blow stuff back out into the gulf.

The problem is...what are the odds of a storm going east of the Florida panhandle, once in the GOM? Just speaking for my area. Rarely does that happen.

A Charlie type would cause it. Maybe an east coaster. But once in the GOM, if it heads west of 85 as it moves toward the coast....oilsville for my area.

Quoting scott39:
Why isnt the goverment bringing in the troops of all branches to the gulf coast and strategically attacking this disaster in the water and land? We need our military for this yesterday! Its to overwelming for BP and the coast guard!!

Do you have enough military personal left?

Good morning Senior Chief, 456, gang!

Good evening Aussie!

Quoting scott39:
I wish someone could show the explanation on that, because i dont know how they know, its never happened before! I hope and pray thier theory is right.Im not for being an alarmist, only wanting to be proactive as possible with whats to come.

Dr. Masters has addressed it in earlier blogs.

SW have you notice the shear forecast continues to change

Somebody had a little too much to drink at the NHC last night lol

Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you have enough military personal left?

We need to make enough! Whatever it takes. We need multiple layered leadership on this disaster yesterday! Its needs to be attacked with military precision. It would work.

Note I meant to make in my earlier posts is that 92L has a very, very large circulation evelope at the lower-mid levels. Quite visible in the low cloud deck across the Atlantic through the Satellite loops. It will take a lot more than shear to weaken this into an open wave status, and those variable to not appear to be in place.

Link

Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning Senior Chief, 456, gang!

Good evening Aussie!

Morning!

SW if its possible just take a look at the shear and 12 hr shear maps from 0Z at PSU.

Quoting Weather456:
3693. Tropicsweatherpr 6:52 AM AST on June 13, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Weather456:
Other than 92L there appears to be no areas of interest out there.



Good morning 456. What is your take seeing the first visible images of the structure of 92L?

I'm seeing TD 1 by tonight.

I have seen this classic signature too many times in the past and it always leads to a depression. It first starts out with a leading convective band as we saw yesterday which bands around the southern portion of the storm with the center right on the northern edge. The next stage is the development of thunderstorms NE of the center and consolidation.

there is already some convection firing up on the NE side.. so it may be consolidating right now? Who knows..

Quoting IKE:


Dr. Masters has addressed it in earlier blogs.

Did he say it would be minimal farther inland, because i really respect Dr. Masters?

I guess we can always run for the hills..lol

Quoting scott39:
Did he say it would be minimal farther inland, because i really respect Dr. Masters?

As best I can remember..."minimal impacts inland".

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 07N34W IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
FAVORABLE CHARACTERISTICS FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 25W-41W. THE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING NUMEROUS
MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N
BETWEEN 30W-42W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N25W AND EXTENDS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SW TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
COASTAL SURINAME. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN
LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

Quoting Weather456:
I guess we can always run for the hills..lol

and stay there for the rest of the hurricane season!...LOL

Link

Link


In order to become a tropical depression then 92L will need to get it's circulation sorted out.

If you look at the 1st visible images for the morning as well as 850mb vorticity maps, you can see that 92L has 2 circulation centers. One near 7n 32w and the other near 7n 36w. Also the convection has waned near the center for now. The eastern more low center appears to be dominating though.

Good Morning.
The important thing now is to try to pin-down a track for 92L.
There appears to be little doubt as to development.
We in the Islands would love to know where it will go, and how intense it may become.
Hopefully some more clues will present themselves later today.

In the meantime, it's a Glorious Sunday Morning here..

Quoting SLU:
Link

Link


In order to become a tropical depression then 92L will need to get it's circulation sorted out.

If you look at the 1st visible images for the morning as well as 850mb vorticity maps, you can see that 92L has 2 circulation centers. One near 7n 32w and the other near 7n 36w. Also the convection has waned near the center for now. The eastern more low center appears to be dominating though.

yea it remains rather broad still

Quoting IKE:


As best I can remember..."minimal impacts inland".

Thank you, Ill stop giving my 2 cents and get off my soapbox.... LOL

Quoting indianrivguy:
Good morning Senior Chief, 456, gang!

Good evening Aussie!

Good Morning.

Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
The important thing now is to try to pin-down a track for 92L.
There appears to be little doubt as to development.
We in the Islands would love to know where it will go, and how intense it may become.
Hopefully some more clues will present themselves later today.

In the meantime, it's a Glorious Sunday Morning here..

If ur interested I've included those thoughts on my blog.

Quoting Weather456:


If ur interested I've inlcuded those thoughts on my blog.

I saw them. Thanks!

I'll say the NHC sticks w/a 30% chance for development on the next TWO.

Quoting Weather456:
3691. scott39 6:49 AM AST on June 13, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Weather456:
92L has reach stage 2 of the classic signatures of developing CV waves. The next stage is TD.

Do you think the Tutt will keep it from having a major impact on any land area and keep it out of the GOM----- specifically the N GOM?

Any negative interaction with the TUTT will result in reduce intensity not a change in track. The GFS is indicating the TUTT will not get as far west as 70W and should remain near its current location while weakening. A cell breaks off and heads west.

It is way too early to speculate any impact on the N Gulf Coast but if I had to pick a location it would me Louisiana and Texas since ridging extends far west. This is a very very long shot.

For now, the islands are the closest to impact with a bit more certainty.

Thanks 456, as always you explain things to where even I can understand it. LOL

Quoting Weather456:


yea it remains rather broad still

It still has a lot of work to do for it to be classified. Regardless you don't expect to see this quality of disturbance that far out at this time of year. It's been 10 years since we last had a June TD east of the islands.

Quoting Weather456:


If ur interested I've included those thoughts on my blog.

92L is such a large system, now covering 10 degrees north-south, that it will impact a lot of the islands with rain and possibly TS winds.

Look impressive

Wont it take 50mph wind shear for days to blow this mammoth wave apart?... LOL

Of course a hurricane is gonna be able to pick up droplets off of a crude oil film and disperse them as far inland as the scent of salt&seaweed would be carried.
The VolatileOrganicCompounds evaporate very readily. And a hurricane passing over fresh (ie surfaced within the past few days) crude is gonna be able to pick up and carry those VOCs for deposition even further inland.

Does anyone here mind if I post a 60 minutes(AUS) report on the GOM oil disaster that has not long aired on tv here, it is rather long?

Quoting IKE:
I'll say the NHC sticks w/a 30% chance for development on the next TWO.

I'll say 40% but I don't see a TD today, still needs better organization.

Quoting aspectre:
Of course a hurricane is gonna be able to pick up droplets off of a crude oil film and disperse them as far inland as the scent of salt&seaweed would be carried.
The VolatileOrganicSolids evaporate very readily. And a hurricane passing over freshly surfacing crude is gonna be able to pick up and carry those VOCs even further inland.

Just when i was feeling better, you had to come along! LOL

Quoting SLU:


It still has a lot of work to do for it to be classified. Regardless you don't expect to see this quality of disturbance that far out at this time of year. It's been 10 years since we last had a June TD east of the islands.

TD 2 in 2000.

But 92L should it be classified will be the earliest. These early season system like TD 2 2000, Hurricane 2 in 1933 and Ana 1979 formed in the 3-4 week of June.

This system comes 13 days into June, the earliest of such a system.

Quoting scott39:
Why isnt the goverment bringing in the troops of all branches to the gulf coast and strategically attacking this disaster in the water and land? We need our military for this yesterday! Its to overwelming for BP and the coast guard!!

Because there are laws about deploying our miliatry troops State-side. It is the National Guard that works State-side and there ARE NG troops on stand-by. The problem is NOT manpower. The problem is equipment and having a good understanding of how to proceed in this disaster.

In this case, the government was set up to be the good "free-market, hands-off" government so many people claim they want, and left it to the oil companies to be the first responders in any oil leak. It is obvious BP did not take this responsibility that seriously and was completely taken off-guard.

Now people are clammering for the government to step in, but since they left it to the oil companies to be ready for any disaster, they do not have the equipment or management to meet the challenge. It is SO easy to blaim those in power, but remember, it takes TIME to collect equipment and have the management in place to deploy the equipment. And in unnamed previous administrations, the executive branch actively and intentionally made sure that government would do no such thing.

Perhaps those people who think private corporations will take care of things because it is "good business" will now realize there IS a role for government in our market economy, and that role CANNOT start when disaster strikes, but MUST start well beforehand in order to be affective...oh yeah, I thought the same thing when the economy melted down and then the Tea Party started up. Just goes to show, we citizens of the United States have a hard time looking forward long-term. We are a REACTIVE bunch that yells loud without thinking very hard about what the actual ramifications are if our yelling actually succeeds in changing policy.

If you want the government to be able to handle disasters, you have to give them the opportunity to PREVENT disasters in the first place. That means effective regulation that might inconvenience the short-term profits of our beloved corporations.

my 2 cents.

Hopefully Dr. Masters will have a chance to update today..

Quoting scott39:
Just when i was feeling better, you had to come along! LOL

Here's the Blog Dr. Masters did on the oil spill.

The NOAA site has fallen behind with satellite loops for 92L..

*refresh NHC page*

*F5....F5...F5.....F5*