Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.

Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)

Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)

flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

Categories: Flood

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4101. CaribBoy 2:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: Can't wait until 92L becomes TD 1 and everybody starts saying: "Why is the cone so south?" "Why is the cone so north?" "I can't believe they kill it in 80 hours." "If you extend the cone by 4,000 miles it hits Florida! OMG!" "They got the wrong coordinates." "If it's going to become a hurricane why don't they have watches up?" "Watch out NOLA! This thing is coming straight for ya!" "Is that a pinhole eye???" LOL! ROFLMAO!! Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2848

4102. reedzone 2:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Looking at the satellite, I have the center 7N 34-35W. It's a broad low, but it looks to me that it's getting tighter. I'm calling for Code Red by 2 p.m. 75% do to the organization, not the deep convection, convection has waned some, but organizing well. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

4103. Relix 2:37 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I usually never says this... but yeah that's a TD. NHC won't call it probably, waiting. Nice circulation, outflow, it's huge... it's amazing to see that thing form, really. Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

4104. stillwaiting 2:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I'm now leaning towards believing that 92L could actually become our first hurricane when it lifts a bit further northward(I believe its moving WNW now)thru about 48-72hrs,92L should have some RI IMO hrs 24-48,possibly reaching 80mph as it approaches the south of PR.....think about iceskater pulling there extremidies inward to speed up,well 92L is just starting to pull in his extremidies and would stregthen because of this... Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

4105. MrstormX 2:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Is the Nhc being too conservative? Eventually this will dissipate and never be named TD-1 by the NHC because they have been really taking a long time with this. Clearly this is a TC, so they better get on their "A Game". Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

4106. Tazmanian 2:38 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
any one thinks this is a TD has of right now say hi hi Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111346

4108. Cavin Rawlins 2:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
The circulation is really good for its lat I know alot of friends across the region are surprised like my friend in Playa Del Carmen Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4109. PensacolaDoug 2:39 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Here's JB's take on it this morn. SUNDAY 8 AM GET ON ABOARD THE TRAIN! The African wave train is alive early this year and the system near 35 west will be a trackable entity into the Caribbean this weekend, and like the hyper seasons of 1995,and 2005, which had the first storm develop out of an African wave, dont be surprised if that is the case this year. Though fairly far south now, the lower than normal pressures in the subtropics will allow this to move north of west and probably stay out of S America Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4827

4110. SLU 2:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Levi32: There she is....what a beauty. lol .. i think it will be born as a boy Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2850

4111. MiamiHurricanes09 2:40 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
After staring at RGB imagery for 5 minutes (lol) I have come to the conclusion of where the COC is: 33.8˚W 6.4˚N. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4113. FLWeatherFreak91 2:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX: Is the Nhc being too conservative? Eventually this will dissipate and never be named TD-1 by the NHC because they have been really taking a long time with this. Clearly this is a TC, so they better get on their "A Game". They know what they're doing better than we do. Let's remember that guys Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

4114. Cavin Rawlins 2:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
The system is tightening gradually. I woke up about 5am this morning and about 5-6 hrs later I have continued to see improvements in the circulation each hr. If we extrapolate this, a TD later tonight or early Wednesday should not be hard to believe. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4115. CaribBoy 2:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: My biggest concern continues to be the uncertainty with the TUTT... I remember that hurricane georges was supposed to track over Dominica (Leewards/Windards limit) two days prior impact... but it finally ended up much farther north near St Kitts/Nevis because something tured its track more twoard the WNW/NW east of the islands and also weakened it from a Cat 4 to a Cat 3. Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2848

4116. MiamiHurricanes09 2:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: The circulation is really good for its lat I know alot of friends across the region are surprised like my friend in Playa Del Carmen Yeah, with lack of Coriolis in that region it is really amazing how 92L is spinning. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4117. mrsalagranny 2:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: The circulation is really good for its lat I know alot of friends across the region are surprised like my friend in Playa Del Carmen Boy this is one heck of a storm.If this is a sign of things to come we are all in for a bad season.Weather456 and StormW hope you both have plenty of coffee and energy drinks.Cause it looks like you guys are gonna have a lot to do this season. Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 732

4118. wfyweather 2:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I do NOT think this is a td quit overreacting! Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422

4119. mcluvincane 2:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
IT WILL BE A HE Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1315

4120. FLWeatherFreak91 2:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: After staring at RGB imagery for 5 minutes (lol) I have come to the conclusion of where the COC is: 33.8˚W 6.4˚N. I think about a hundred miles west of there. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

4121. SCwannabe 2:42 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian: any one thinks this is a TD has of right now say hi hi bye! Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535

4122. Cavin Rawlins 2:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic: Why would you be concerned? I think it should be strong enough to hamper any significant intensification to 92L. I am calling for 92l to reach TS status tomorrow evening, then weaken and eventually dissipate over the islands. Re-generation is possible in the Bahamas region if it makes it there, or possibly the Gulf Of Mexico Obviously you did not look at the 06Z 200 mb GFS output. Obviously you did not look at the statistical data either. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4123. reedzone 2:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic: Why would you be concerned? I think it should be strong enough to hamper any significant intensification to 92L. I am calling for 92l to reach TS status tomorrow evening, then weaken and eventually dissipate over the islands. Re-generation is possible in the Bahamas region if it makes it there, or possibly the Gulf Of Mexico Wind shear is favorable north of the Islands into Florida. It's before the islands that shear is high, though models are showing the anticyclone protecting 92L Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

4124. MiamiHurricanes09 2:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic: Why would you be concerned? I think it should be strong enough to hamper any significant intensification to 92L. I am calling for 92l to reach TS status tomorrow evening, then weaken and eventually dissipate over the islands. Re-generation is possible in the Bahamas region if it makes it there, or possibly the Gulf Of Mexico Concerned? If 92L develops a strong enough ridge aloft it will hammer through the weakening TUTT with now problems, when you have that in place you can expect rapid intensification in the Caribbean, and that could be catastrophic. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4125. SCwannabe 2:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting SCwannabe: bye! just kidding! I think it's a TD or more!! Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535

4126. MrstormX 2:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
If its not Red or TD by the next update I will be quite angry, alot of it has to do with the forecaster. Kimberlain last I checked is very conservative so probably won't be much if he keeps doing the TWOs. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

4127. MiamiHurricanes09 2:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: I think about a hundred miles west of there. LOL, I just put it where I saw the spinning. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4128. Skyepony (Mod) 2:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
With 92L I see 2 areas on the 850vort that are going to battle. It's big, there should be a struggle. They can either get farther apart, coupled with shear..get shredded or one suck the other in, combat shear & pull together somewhere after 40-50W. Leaning toward the latter..pretty much sticking by my forecast of 2 days ago. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

4129. CyclonicVoyage 2:44 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Tough call, the GFS has been persistent with a TUTT building down but, agree a more southerly track would benefit 92L as the TUTT doesn't seem to build down quite as far as modeled before. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

4130. Canealum03 2:46 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
And idea on how long 92L should take to make it to 80W should it form and stay intact? Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 94

4131. MiamiHurricanes09 2:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Canealum03: And idea on how long 92L should take to make it to 80W should it form and stay intact? A week, maybe more depending on speed. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4132. seflagamma 2:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
WOW right now that invest has a nice looking outflow... interesting to watch. again, thanks for your input... there is some good reading here on this system. Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

4133. extreme236 2:47 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
12Z SHIPS suggests that there is a relatively high chance for RI. Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

4134. Cavin Rawlins 2:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Skyepony: With 92L I see 2 areas on the 850vort that are going to battle. It's big, there should be a struggle. They can either get farther apart, coupled with shear..get shredded or one suck the other in, combat shear & pull together somewhere after 40-50W. Leaning toward the latter..pretty much sticking by my forecast of 2 days ago.blockquote> Repost The two areas area of vort is not necessarily a second center....vorticity is spin...normally at the leading edge of disturbances, storms and hurricanes, air flowing in the NE curves to enter the low. A second reason is that the leading edge of convection has vorticity with it. A rule of thumb is that a blob of convection moving cyclonically around a low pressure center will generate positive vort. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4135. CyclonicVoyage 2:48 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Definitely not a common track for a June storm, that is for sure. More typical of July Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

4136. Cavin Rawlins 2:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Canealum03: And idea on how long 92L should take to make it to 80W should it form and stay intact? It's 5 days away from 60W and probably another 3 days from 80W. Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4137. CyclonicVoyage 2:49 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting CyclonicVoyage: Tough call, the GFS has been persistent with a TUTT building down but, agree a more southerly track would benefit 92L as the TUTT doesn't seem to build down quite as far as modeled before. Which could be as a result of a ridge following the storm. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

4138. MiamiHurricanes09 2:50 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting extreme236: 12Z SHIPS suggests that there is a relatively high chance for RI. I agree with the SHIPS. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4139. seflagamma 2:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
when is the next update? Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 286 Comments: 40485

4140. MZV 2:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
I have to agree with Weather456. It's been tightening and improving banding. It will be the first named storm soon. The real debate is what happens later this week. Member Since: July 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 227

4141. Canealum03 2:51 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: It's 5 days away from 60W and probably another 3 days from 80W. Great...Not what I wanted to hear. Scheduled to close on a house in 11 days in South Florida. Who knows where it's going to end up and how strong, but just another headache to deal with. Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 94

4142. MrstormX 2:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
This warming of cloud-tops is typical of storms of this magnitude, Bill became TD-3 after its circulation started compacting and cloud tops warmed. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

4143. FLWeatherFreak91 2:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09: LOL, I just put it where I saw the spinning. That's the problem 92l is having right now. It is a very broad, elongated circulation. There isn't (just yet) a specific point that is the center of circulation. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

4144. plywoodstatenative 2:52 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
usually systems that form that far south have no reckoning on any problems. The issue however with this one, is that it was impressive over land and it is more impressive as days go by. I would be watching for this system to go by the Tutt with some ease and head into the Caribbean; As the old saying goes: Time will only tell Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4147

4145. MrstormX 2:53 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Bill after being named a TS. Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232

4146. DarIvy959810 2:53 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
yeah I remember the last cape verde major hurricane we had. Member Since: May 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171

4147. Cavin Rawlins 2:54 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
The circulation is pretty evident.... compare to Bill as an Invest Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

4148. MiamiHurricanes09 2:55 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting MrstormX: Bill after being named a TS. You really can't compare an invest to a TS, but Bill looks predominantly better. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4149. MiamiHurricanes09 2:56 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Quoting Weather456: The circulation is pretty evident.... compare to Bill Holy crap, they look so alike. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

4150. Skyepony (Mod) 2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Here's a windsat of the sloppy western surface circulation ~5hrs ago, elongated like the eastern circulation we got a pass of lastnight. Ascat was a total miss this morning...I can't see this being called til we are down to one tight low at the surface.. Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312

4151. Levi32 2:58 PM GMT on June 13, 2010
Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, June 13th: Invest 92L Quick Sunday Update Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

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