Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.

As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.


Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.


Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center

Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.

When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.

Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.

People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.

Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.

600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.

Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.

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1073. Tampa77
Good morning,

I am the HR Manager and oversee the business continuity for my company. I am no stranger to preparing for inclement weather. I have heard mention of most New England states, but CT has not really been discussed. We have a location in New Haven. I'd like to have some idea of what we may expect in that area and what to prepare our employees for. I have sent out a memo urging them to stay tuned to their local weather stations and to take any neccessary precautions. I would think torrential rains, possible flooding, and a potential for tropical winds may be likely. Again, maybe CT has not been mentioned for a reason? Any input is appreciated. Thanks in advance.
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1072. hogfsu
just wondering, if the h's keep pushing to the east will that give earl a reason to keep towaeds s.c. till the trough is in place.? and am I wrong or does something form in lower gulf sat on some models? is this fiona?
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Back to 3 cyclones in the Atlantic.

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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone

A lot of ifs, ands and buts when talking about a Category 3 storm approaching the South East Coast. I tell you by going to the grocery storm yesterday, no one seemed concerned. Water on the shelves, dry goods still in place If you didnt know any better, you would not think a Cat 3 was approaching the NC coast. I have been through many hurricanes and this one has been the most complicated one thus far. IF this storm crosses 75 degrees west and conditions are supposed to start detoriating tomorrow from this, we would have a cluster of sugar honey and ice tea with the EM groups trying to evacuate people at the last minute.

Look at the bright side, at least you won't have to stand in line for 5-6 hours to be told "sold out of everything"
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1068. Gearsts
WOW a TD already!Busy sep
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Quoting Bonedog:
Jerseyshoregirl...

there are models showing it bad for the coast.

If it comes on the western side of the forecast (withing 200 miles) you can see TS force winds, large damaging swells, beach erosion, and possible overtoping in the usual places.

If it comes within 90 miles you can see hurricane force winds and all the goodies that come along with that =(

Thank you very much. This helps me understand what one could expect to see if Earl takes the west track.
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1065. 7544
any one have a link for ngfdl thanks
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:mf



My thinking, too.


Can you explain this a little more?
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Kinda scary thinking what it will be like once the MJO comes back around. September is looking like a doozie.


Yesterday on the podcast Dr. Masters said something about maybe a week or two of quiet. Where'd that go!?
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1060. SLU
133

WHXX01 KWBC 011312

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1312 UTC WED SEP 1 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092010) 20100901 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100901 1200 100902 0000 100902 1200 100903 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.3N 35.2W 12.6N 37.4W 12.6N 39.3W 12.5N 41.0W

BAMD 12.3N 35.2W 13.2N 37.0W 14.0N 38.2W 14.8N 39.2W

BAMM 12.3N 35.2W 12.8N 37.2W 13.2N 38.7W 13.5N 39.9W

LBAR 12.3N 35.2W 12.9N 37.6W 13.5N 39.9W 14.2N 42.1W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 46KTS

DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100903 1200 100904 1200 100905 1200 100906 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.6N 42.8W 12.8N 46.6W 13.2N 51.5W 13.6N 57.2W

BAMD 15.8N 40.6W 18.4N 43.9W 20.2N 46.9W 20.1N 50.4W

BAMM 13.9N 41.4W 15.1N 45.0W 16.4N 49.6W 16.9N 54.9W

LBAR 15.2N 44.0W 18.4N 47.6W 22.6N 50.6W 25.5N 51.3W

SHIP 49KTS 55KTS 59KTS 64KTS

DSHP 49KTS 55KTS 59KTS 64KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 35.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 12.1N LONM12 = 32.1W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 29.6W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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TD 9 at 11am

invest_RENUMBER_al982010_al092010.ren
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1058. 7544
td9 at 11 am we will get a cone stay tune
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1057. hydrus
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Well, well. I go to bed last night and Earl is cranking NW and Fiona is on death's door. I wake up and take a look at Earl's overnight motion...it may be NW, but it appears a good bit more W than pure NW. Fiona put on the brakes and got her act together...and old 98L looks pretty good. Oh, what a night away from the computer can bring.

Gonna be an interesting day in the tropics.
I just posted everything you said.lol
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Quoting DestinJeff:


hey, I went there a few days ago in a way when I said the only thing that would stop the GW ranting back and forth was a CAT 5 to the Center of Circulation sucker.


Yeah, those good storms do stop the GW back and forth...and they also serve to put the brakes on the wannabe comedians, who put their lame stand-up acts back in the box and either A) talk about tropical weather or B) keep quiet and learn a bit.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13548
Atlantic
09L.NINE
08L.FIONA
07L.EARL
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


And this Means?



It means that the MJO is going to start enhancing activity in the Atlantic.

Which means the season is just getting warmed up... we could see a whopper of a September.
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1053. Michfan
We are going to have a very busy September.
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1052. Bonedog
being in the emergency field (EMS) I can tell you since monday, at least in NJ, we were told all leaves and vacations were terminated as of 12am Friday. There is alot going on behind the scenes.

As far as the "official" warning. What should have been going on with the public is the news actually "reporting" on the hurricane and letting folks know to prepare for the possiblity. Stock up on supplies, start putting lawn furniture away, getting in touch with realitives, getting a plan together. That way when the 48hr mark is hit and it becomes "official" you are just finishing up what needs to be done and getting ready to hunker down.

I know for myself I loose 12 to 15hrs of prep time due to going on duty at midnight friday depending on timing of the storm. I have been preping since Earl appeared destined to the northeast. Minor stuff at first, trim limbs, put stuff away, get everything gassed up and extra fuel in reserve. As we get closer and know better I will get other stuff done such as windows and the like.

Unfortunatly the news sensationalizes everything so folks wait till its official and then its a run on the stores and preping goes out the window due to traffic and the like.

Its unfortunate but in reality nothing goes as planned.

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1051. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone

A lot of ifs, ands and buts when talking about a Category 3 storm approaching the South East Coast. I tell you by going to the grocery storm yesterday, no one seemed concerned. Water on the shelves, dry goods still in place If you didnt know any better, you would not think a Cat 3 was approaching the NC coast. I have been through many hurricanes and this one has been the most complicated one thus far. IF this storm crosses 75 degrees west and conditions are supposed to start detoriating tomorrow from this, we would have a cluster of sugar honey and ice tea with the EM groups trying to evacuate people at the last minute.
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Quoting StormW:


West


I was hoping I was wrong :(
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Quoting StormW:
Get ready:



Kinda scary thinking what it will be like once the MJO comes back around. September is looking like a doozie.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
If Earl is indeed "pumping the ridge" to his NNE, then the influence of the weakness over TN becomes more of a factor, as that becomes more of a path of least resistance....




My thinking, too.
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Well, well. I go to bed last night and Earl is cranking NW and Fiona is on death's door. I wake up and take a look at Earl's overnight motion...it may be NW, but it appears a good bit more W than pure NW. Fiona put on the brakes and got her act together...and old 98L looks pretty good. Oh, what a night away from the computer can bring.

Gonna be an interesting day in the tropics.
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1044. shawn26
Anybody see the NGFDL model for Fiona? All I have to say is holy crap.
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Quoting StormW:


West


All aboard the wave train!

CV season is well under way...
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Quoting hydrus:
Someone said that Fiona went from a forward speed of 22 kts to 12 kts in less than 12 hours. Talk about hitting the brakes.


Yeah, that's a big change. She was supposed to slow though as Fiona approached the weakness. Earl is the sprinter at the moment. BAMMS are indicating there will be enough distance for the ridge to build between them and be forced back west.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
And another one...

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NHC_ATCF
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FSTDA
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NINE, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2010, TD, O, 2010083100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, 4, AL092010
AL, 09, 2010083000, , BEST, 0, 94N, 207W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083012, , BEST, 0, 99N, 236W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 251W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 265W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 280W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083112, , BEST, 0, 112N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 118N, 308W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 121N, 321W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090106, , BEST, 0, 122N, 335W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 352W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 225, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,


Interesting...no TFCA issued before this by the Navy unless it is about to come out...
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Everyone in Earl's potential path...Prepare Now and Stay Safe.

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1035. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Well "FIONA" did not want to bump into "EARL", she became aware to slow down her speed.
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And another one (aka "Gaston-to-be")...

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AL, 09, 2010083012, , BEST, 0, 99N, 236W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 251W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 265W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 280W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083112, , BEST, 0, 112N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 118N, 308W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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AL, 09, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 352W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 225, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13548
Quoting StormW:
Just for giggles and grins, here's the forecast steering pattern out to 144 hours:

LINK


Umm and in English it says???
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1032. TxWxFan
RENUMBER: TD09 is born!
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Quoting StormW:
Just for giggles and grins, here's the forecast steering pattern out to 144 hours:

LINK


How would that change if Fiona pulled a surprise and did the stall thing at 28 / 30 NLat. What kind of effect would that have on the now 98L approaching quickly from the east.
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1029. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK (T1006)
21:00 PM JST September 1 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lionrock (992 hPa) located at 22.9N 118.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.1N 115.7E - Tropical Depression
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1027. hydrus
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


So what your saying is Im about to get busier? Nice...
Busier than this is crazy man.
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1026. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON KOMPASU (T1007)
21:00 PM JST September 1 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Yellow Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Kompasu (970 hPa) located at 34.3N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 20 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 40.3N 129.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 42.5N 139.2E - EXTRATROPICAL
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Quoting Engine2:
We also have to watch the tilt/orientation of the trough in the Northeast as well

Negative tilt pulls it closer to the coast?
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1024. hydrus
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

The Big Dogs have Earl well covered. Just so we don't get all complacent. I mentioned last night Fiona was putting some distance between Earl and Earl may leave her behind.

FIONA





98L (Soon To Be 09L)



Someone said that Fiona went from a forward speed of 22 kts to 12 kts in less than 12 hours. Talk about hitting the brakes.
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Storm,

Sorry to ask you this again but maybe my questions got pushed down beneath other ones on the page. Is the new westerly pattern of storms that you indicated last week taking shape after the trough passes?

Also, the possible clockwise loop that Fiona could take, does that remind you of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004? Same thing possible here?

What are your thoughts on 98L? looking down the road, does 98L look to be a florida threat given the wind currents and ridging? Thanks
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.