Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast
Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.
As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.
Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab
Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.
Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center
Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track
Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.
Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.
When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.
Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.
Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.
What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.
People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.
Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.
600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.
Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.
Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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Yeah, but if you go back to TPC homepage and reload - than go to sat page it works. Thats what I have found.
From the main page of the Satellite Services page, you can see a few still images. The link above is from Puerto Rico; however, it does show Earl's eye and Fiona's position.
Yeah...you may have to face a hit.
I'm not saying the USA is spared a hit...just stating what the model shows.
Morning Chief!!
edit:got a 404 on the float link and had to refresh too, came through fine once i did
Well, I could reverse it and say 90s are hell... but I'd be lying! The few occasions of experiencing it have all been pleasurable.
London... ick. Never liked the city, much better places in the 'Atlantic Archipelago'.
East Anglia does get hotter than the rest of Britain (and rains far less). A stifling heat, I suppose.
its not coming,,prepare
The current forecast track by NHC looks good, but will shift it East by 50 to 100 miles as the TROF expected to keep it out might be able to work together with Earl to erode the W periphery of the A/B High a bit more than expected.
Now in regards 98L... model support for CMC on developing 98L is starting to increase. As we discussed before a pattern shift after Fiona should start to take place so as to shift the focus to the Carib and and GOM type entries.
Fiona, might be able to survive if its says far behind from Earl to prevent its outflow from destroying her. Else, she'll have no chances of further intensification.
Morning...
Yes... having some issues too.
We are in a very rural area....all our neighbors have been our neighbors for two and three generations and we all love and own animals so there is not many places for them to go. Plus...my daughter who barrell races says if a Major Hits...she is loading up the horses and evacuating...lol
l8r...
I love it. I'm going to give it to some friends with horses for the next time we take a hit here.
It won't be a disaster, and no they won't be ready if it is......
Nice Water Vapor Loop of Earl and some of his players
May not get a drop of rain here the next 5 days......
May not get a drop of rain here the next 5 days......
You have no idea how much I hope you are correct, Ike!
IRLoop
98L is getting itself together this morning and will probably be the worst trouble maker of the three.
**BigSmile**
dear COT
it's always good
TO BE HOT,HOT,HOT
I remember around the 20th of August I was stating that it was showing nothing through the rest of August and that verified.
Yeah...I hope it's correct.
Latest NOGAPS scrapes the outer banks with Earl...Link
Another idea - use clippers to shave your # right into their coat.
98L (Look for TD today.)
OK I have a dumb question...
NGFDL as per the WU site is a doomcast. Is this even a possiblity or outlier?
NOGAPS as per the WU site is not as bad but still bad due tot he size of the windfield. Again, can it verify or is it out to lunch?
My OEM office has us on duty starting 0001 Friday until further notice and I am just trying to figure out everything. Since I will be on duty I loose say 12 to 15hrs prep. I have the furniture away and such but usually do a few other preps depending on potential. Dont need to board up the picture window if we will only see a light breeze sort of thing.
OEM is telling us the call up is for the possiblity of mass calls not for potential damages. So I am just trying to get ahead of this and get my duty crew prepared.
If either of those models verify, especially the NGFDL, then we go from paniced callers to all out OMG WTF!!
Just wondering....
Thanks
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