Category 3 Earl Continues Moving Towards the East Coast
Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic, and 3 named storms in the western Pacific. Tonight, though, we'll focus on Earl.
As of 11PM EDT, Earl is still a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph and gusts of 160 mph. From the advisory, Earl is located at 23.0 N, 69.9 W, 910 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving towards the northwest at 14 mph. Remember, large storms are known for having wobbly tracks. Aircraft observations and microwave imagery (Fig. 1) indicate that the eyewall is reforming.
Fig. 1 Estimated rain-rate of Earl taken at 2332Z 31 Aug 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab
Earl is passing near buoy 41046 and is generating some large waves as shown by Figure 1.
Fig. 2Plot of wave heights observed at buoy 41046. Data courtesy of the National Data Buoy Center
Earl is a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 200 miles away. This means Earl will have an impact on areas well away from the center's track
Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue a slight turn to the right as it moves around the subtropical high. Then when a trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. The current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, and I don't see any reason to disagree. Most of the computer model guidance supports this forecast (except for NOGAPS and NGFDL, and they have Earl only crossing the Outer Banks). It is worth noting that the ECMWF global model (the best global model) does bring Earl close to the Outer Banks. Earl will make his closest approach to the Outer Banks sometime early Friday morning.
Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will likely produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend. From the wind probability product issued by NHC, Cape Hatteras has a 63% chance of tropical-storm force winds sometime this weekend. There is a wide swath of 30% chance of TS winds from Virginia north towards Maine. New York City has a 20% chance of TS winds, and Nantucket, MA has a 50% chance.
When Earl hooks on to the trough and starts accelerating to the northeast, it will start transitioning from a tropical system to an extratropical low. This means it will start weakening.
Current Watches
As of 1045PM EDT, a hurricane watch is in effect for the coastal US from Surf City, NC to the NC/VA border. Remember, this means tropical-storm force winds are expected within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Turks and Caicos islands. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Cape Fear to Surf City and for the southeastern Bahama islands. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.
Impacts
It's too early to be specific. That said, the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC thinks that with the combination of tides and winds, a storm surge of 4 feet is possible along the Outer Banks with moderate coastal flooding possible. They also think rip currents are a likely threat at the beaches.
What to do
People living in areas covered by the hurricane watch should start following their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 48 hours to complete your preparations. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS. If you live in areas prone to flooding, evacuate to a hurricane shelter or a place outside evacuation zones. If an evacuation order is given, please follow it.
People living from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Earl and think about their hurricane preparations.
Fiona
Fiona stayed too close to big brother Earl and is paying the price. Outflow from Earl is expected to create shear, transforming Fiona into an open trough. It's forecast to dissipate in 2-3 days.
600AM EDT UPDATE
Earl has weakened to a category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. NHC has extended the hurricane watch from the NC/VA border to Parramore island. The track forecast has shifted a bit to the west, so the chance of tropical-storm force winds in the New England area has gone up. For example, Eastport ME has a greater than 50% chance of tropical storm force winds now. For more cities, take a look at the wind probabilities product. Intensity forecast is relatively unchanged.
Fiona is starting to build a little more space between herself and Earl. If this keeps up, Fiona might have a shot at survival. This is worth keeping an eye on.
Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Wednesday morning.
Reader Comments
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AOI
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TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
wow that is going way back for the last major cyclone to hit the region Earl may reach.
Very good points. There's also the issue of alarm fatigue. If they get too heavy handed to "save lives" you get lots of false alarms and people just don't take warnings seriously which has the opposite effect.
Getting a little eastwards movement from the trough, but only the northern portion seems to be more amplified. Looks like its gonna be a footrace
The NHC does predict the storm to go as far as 75.2 west
StormW or anyone, can you please answer another question I have (at your convenience)...
At its point of closest approach to NC, with the current forecast, what is the expected radius of intense winds?
+1 - probably the biggest challenge we face in EM...
+10
So what your saying is Im about to get busier? Nice...
Sorry to ask you this again but maybe my questions got pushed down beneath other ones on the page. Is the new westerly pattern of storms that you indicated last week taking shape after the trough passes?
Also, the possible clockwise loop that Fiona could take, does that remind you of Hurricane Jeanne back in 2004? Same thing possible here?
What are your thoughts on 98L? looking down the road, does 98L look to be a florida threat given the wind currents and ridging? Thanks
Negative tilt pulls it closer to the coast?
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON KOMPASU (T1007)
21:00 PM JST September 1 2010
================================
SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Yellow Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Kompasu (970 hPa) located at 34.3N 124.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 20 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.5
Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 40.3N 129.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 42.5N 139.2E - EXTRATROPICAL
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TROPICAL STORM LIONROCK (T1006)
21:00 PM JST September 1 2010
================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea
At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Lionrock (992 hPa) located at 22.9N 118.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 24.1N 115.7E - Tropical Depression
How would that change if Fiona pulled a surprise and did the stall thing at 28 / 30 NLat. What kind of effect would that have on the now 98L approaching quickly from the east.
Umm and in English it says???
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al092010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009011309
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
NINE, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2010, TD, O, 2010083100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, 4, AL092010
AL, 09, 2010083000, , BEST, 0, 94N, 207W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083012, , BEST, 0, 99N, 236W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 251W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010083100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 265W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 280W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083112, , BEST, 0, 112N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010083118, , BEST, 0, 118N, 308W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090100, , BEST, 0, 121N, 321W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090106, , BEST, 0, 122N, 335W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 09, 2010090112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 352W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 225, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,
Interesting...no TFCA issued before this by the Navy unless it is about to come out...
Yeah, that's a big change. She was supposed to slow though as Fiona approached the weakness. Earl is the sprinter at the moment. BAMMS are indicating there will be enough distance for the ridge to build between them and be forced back west.
All aboard the wave train!
CV season is well under way...
Gonna be an interesting day in the tropics.
My thinking, too.
Kinda scary thinking what it will be like once the MJO comes back around. September is looking like a doozie.
I was hoping I was wrong :(
A lot of ifs, ands and buts when talking about a Category 3 storm approaching the South East Coast. I tell you by going to the grocery storm yesterday, no one seemed concerned. Water on the shelves, dry goods still in place If you didnt know any better, you would not think a Cat 3 was approaching the NC coast. I have been through many hurricanes and this one has been the most complicated one thus far. IF this storm crosses 75 degrees west and conditions are supposed to start detoriating tomorrow from this, we would have a cluster of sugar honey and ice tea with the EM groups trying to evacuate people at the last minute.
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