Gaston still a threat to redevelop
For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (
RIWXPhoto)
Reader Comments
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Turn your modem off for 10 seconds then turn it on again. Fixed the problem for me.
No, not me, you guys. Florida here. Thought maybe someone put the lime in the coconut. :)
Storm thats middle TX coast...
Quoted you in error and deleted the post. Sorry
Why isn't that wave a 10% spinner?
Ida, Ike, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore, ect.
At the moment the models seem to have a good handle on it, and it should go into Mexico near 24N, but I do see the possibility of it sneaking up to 25N, and that could mean a big rain event for south Texas if it moves that far north.
As far as intensity, that will depend mostly on how long it stays over water. If it's only 24 hours, it won't be a huge deal, but if it's more like 48 hours then there is the worry that this could wind up into a Cat 1 hurricane in a hurry.
I was really hoping Igor would be a 40mph TS just because that's the opposite everyone has been expecting of it, but that's not looking likely as of now..
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27
Levi, I thought what was happening is that a typical mid-latitude ridge was building over the central US in the wake of the major trough that curved Earl into Canada. I see such a ridge in that CIMSS map you posted, around central Tennessee, and that's the ridge turning TD 10 northwest, right?
I was hoping the same thing!
WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
Iffy on whether it will redevelop into anything big. Dry air and easterly shear are inhibiting it at the moment but it's a fighter and it still has potential since it's getting farther west which is generally more favorable. I don't think rapid strengthening is likely any time soon though. The track is right towards the northern Caribbean islands for now.
WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
XD, I knew it! I've been saying for a while, Igor sounds like a name worthy of something monstrous!!
JK (Just Kidding). We'll have to wait and see. After all, 99L just struggled near the Cape Verde Islands to develop. We'll see what this wave behind 99L does.
I don't believe I said anything different. Yes it's the high pressure strengthening as the upper trough leaves.
Exactly the cone I would give it
000
WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.1W
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 95.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
I see we have Tropical Depression 10...How much time it spends over water is vital to how strong it gets. This will likely rival Colin's intensity in my opinion, if it can stay over water for about 36 hours or more.
Good old LIME LOL.
Will be back later.
I want to see that happen in mid-late October when something really tropical and soaked with moisture develops in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and rides a front northeastward with a massive cold airmass on its northern side. Imagine what that would look like....I would only hope for a rain event but the kind of storm you could see with rapid extratropical transition from a hurricane along the gulf coast with a frigid airmass to the north would be epic.
Lookin better
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
Call me crazy- But-I'd be more concerned about it following that front line NE
BTW
Love the Cheeweez. Great pict.
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