Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops
Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.
Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.
Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.
Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.
Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!
Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yep.
Looks like the core has become better defined.
from its previous heading of (2.3degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
TD.10's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~21.6mph(~34.9km/h)
Invest90L -- 6hour intervals between positions
05Sep . 06pmGMT - - 19.9n95.7w - - 25knots - - 1004mb - - NHC-ATCF *95.9w
06Sep . 12amGMT - - 20.4n9.54w - - 25knots - - 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF
TD.10 -- 3hour intervals between positions (including the previous one and the next)
06Sep . 03amGMT - - 20.7n95.2w - - 30mph - - 1003mb - - NHC.Adv.#1
06Sep . 06amGMT - - 20.9n95.0w - - 35mph - - 1003mb - - #1A
TD.10 becomes TS.Hermine
06Sep . 09amGMT - - 21.6n95.0w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2
06Sep . 12pmGMT - - 22.4n95.3w - - 45mph - - - 995mb - - #2A
06Sep . 03pmGMT - - 23.4n95.8w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #3
06Sep . 06pmGMT - - 24.1n96.5w - - 60mph - - - 995mb - - #3A
25knots=~28.8mph __ ~26.1knots=30mph
Copy and paste 19.9n95.7w, 20.4n95.4w, 20.7n95.2w, 20.9n95.0w-21.6n95.0w, 21.6n95.0w-22.4n95.3w, 22.4n95.3w-23.4n95.8w, 23.4n95.8w-24.1n96.5w, mid, bro, 24.1n96.5w-25.38N97.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~4&1/2hours from now to LaGloria,Tamaulipas,Mexico
* Before the NHC reevaluated&alterered the ATCF numbers.
^ The dots preceeding the four line segments show positions that were measured 6hours apart
184630 2451N 09541W 8428 01553 0073 +176 +136 158041 041 036 002 00
I guess it's a TD.. but it could be a TS since it has those 40mph winds
LOL...que? are you serious? I don't see anybody suggesting that.
I don't think its been re-activated.
Where south? Enjoy! We have some pretty good strikes going on and heavy rain. Such a nice sight after the warmets August on record for Houston ever!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MALOU (T1009)
3:00 AM JST September 7 2010
================================
SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon in Sea around Tushima
at 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Malou (985 hPa) located at 33.4N 127.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 9 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 35.5N 131.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 37.4N 138.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 37.2N 146.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
He's talking about what it would take for it to be re-classified. Nothing more.
No need to attack him.
at least he didnt circumvent the ban enuff said
(From the W at ~ 9.2 mph)
theres ya W winds
not very convincing, Ex-Gastons' circulation is getting weaker
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 0, 175N, 572W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 12, 173N, 601W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 24, 172N, 628W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 36, 172N, 653W, 50, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 48, 174N, 676W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 60, 176N, 695W, 73, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 72, 178N, 712W, 80, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 84, 182N, 728W, 87, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 96, 186N, 745W, 93, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 108, 191N, 764W, 102, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090618, 03, SHIP, 120, 196N, 784W, 111, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Calm down bro, he was only making an analisys, people on the islands are aware of Gaston development.
000
URNT15 KNHC 061856
AF301 0210A HERMINE HDOB 14 20100906
184700 2450N 09542W 8429 01550 0073 +177 +137 158042 043 037 004 00
184730 2449N 09543W 8430 01551 0072 +176 +141 158043 043 037 004 03
184800 2448N 09544W 8425 01554 0072 +175 +147 160043 044 037 003 03
184830 2448N 09546W 8429 01548 0070 +177 +143 159044 044 037 004 00
184900 2447N 09548W 8433 01544 0070 +175 +144 160044 044 037 005 00
184930 2446N 09549W 8429 01549 0070 +171 +150 160044 045 038 004 00
185000 2446N 09551W 8428 01549 0068 +174 +154 162040 042 039 005 00
185030 2445N 09552W 8430 01543 0068 +168 +165 160037 039 037 007 00
185100 2444N 09554W 8425 01548 0069 +165 //// 160041 043 039 008 01
185130 2444N 09555W 8429 01544 0066 +170 +152 163041 042 036 005 00
185200 2443N 09557W 8431 01542 0065 +170 +149 161041 042 038 005 00
185230 2442N 09558W 8431 01539 0063 +173 +148 157044 045 041 005 00
185300 2441N 09600W 8432 01540 0060 +177 +147 157045 046 042 004 00
185330 2441N 09602W 8431 01541 0060 +176 +142 158043 044 041 005 00
185400 2440N 09603W 8428 01543 0060 +174 +139 157045 046 041 003 00
185430 2439N 09605W 8429 01541 0060 +175 +143 157046 046 041 005 00
185500 2439N 09606W 8432 01537 0056 +174 +151 156043 045 041 005 00
185530 2438N 09608W 8432 01534 0057 +172 +159 155044 046 039 005 00
185600 2437N 09609W 8428 01538 0055 +174 +148 157045 045 040 005 00
185630 2437N 09611W 8430 01534 0052 +175 +145 157046 046 041 004 00
$$
;
185630 2437N 09611W 8430 01534 0052 175 145 157046 046 041 004 00
Thank you, StormW. TUTT? Southwest of Gaston in the eastern Caribbean? And, what seems to be upper level convection being pulled northwards by the ULL to Gaston's west (presently over Haiti)? Wouldn't that also mean that Gaston faces more shear as he enters the Caribbean?
Again, thanks.
It seems he doesn't need to circumvent; many others are doing it for him, aren't they? ;-)
So far, the tutt is moving in tandem with gaston to the wnw and is poised to vent him.
Cool!
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