Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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552. Tazmanian 5:23 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
un oh 92L Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

553. kmanislander 5:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Back later Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

554. ecflweatherfan 5:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting kmanislander: Tobago pressure is 1012 mbs Barbados at 1010 Tells you where the center is closer to Indeed. And Trinidad and Tobago reporting a WNW wind Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947

555. 69Viking 5:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting WeatherMSK: I see 92L maybe drifting to the north as it finds a weakness from troughing off of the east coast. Alot of that steering depends how quickly 92L strengthens. In this case it would cause heavy rains over much of the islands toward the Gulf as a much weaker storm, however once it gets to the Gulf it could explode with high pressure potentially to its north as it could head towards Texas/Mexico border. Otherwise if it remains more southerly towards the west, watch out Yucatan and eventually Mexico as this could be a severe threat even worse than the northely track scenario. By the sounds of what the Doc wrote this system is probably not going West once it gets a little more North, below is what the Doc wrote in reference to Igor path but it will also affect 92L's path. What the Doc wrote: The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. Member Since: August 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

556. gordydunnot 5:25 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
LinkFor anyone who wants to see some interesting steering go to this site click on image, then look at 200mb stream. You will see why it may go north and the gulf coast looks like it has protection. All these cimss products work in motion,fascinating to watch. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

557. CoffinWood 5:25 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Geez... "SAN ANTONIO – Authorities in the San Antonio area searched Thursday for a man who drove into a flooded road, making him the fourth person swept away by floodwaters from the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine. The man drove into the rushing water Wednesday, despite his wife urging him to stop, Bexar County spokeswoman Laura Jesse said. The man's wife and children were following in a separate car, and the wife called to tell him not to drive into the water, but he did it anyway, Jesse said." Member Since: June 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 113

559. jonelu 5:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I didnt like the tone of Dr Masters synopsis on 92L. But atleast its looking likely that Igor will be a fishy. Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882

561. angiest 5:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting CoopNTexas: CMC 12z has caribbean system moving north & cutting in front of Igor near the end of the run. I noticed CMC forming one (or two) storms in front of Igor. If you notice it looks to form a weak system, maybe even subtropical, in the central Atlantic. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

562. kshipre1 5:28 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Storm, I think you have been saying this for a long time? Am I right? Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

564. FLWeatherFreak91 5:29 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting NavarreMark: If you live in the gulf states, you don't have to chase them. They chase you. Funny though how people across Florida have very different perspectives on how dangerous and frequently hurricanes visit our state though. I have only experienced tropical cyclones in the Dominican Republic, and never really much at all while living in Florida for 18 years. In Tampa where I grew up, we were really only brushed by tropicals storm forces winds every 2-3 years. Some hurricanes came really close, but never directly struck the Bay. I was in school in Melbourne, fl from 2005-2008 and never once experienced hurricane force winds, and from that time on I have lived in Jacksonville (which of course hasn't received much in the way of tropical cyclones.) So I really don't feel that Florida is a dangerous place to live personally since I never seem to get hit... If you were to ask someone from the panhandle or south florida, you would surely get a very different opinion. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

566. tiggeriffic 5:30 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
hey storm...thanks for that update...now if you don't mind...laymans terms...been up all night with peewee and it does not compute...am I hearing DANGER WILL ROBINSON DANGER Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

567. clwstmchasr 5:30 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
So from what I am reading here, Florida is safe from Igor due to the trough and from 92L from a blocking high. It is after that then the door could open up. Am I right? Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2758

568. CoffinWood 5:31 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLdewey: We are something.... hmmm now what was it. We are good? Dag-nabbit that's not it. Hmmmmmm. Doom (Tazmanian 2009, DestinJeff 2010). Member Since: June 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 113

569. FloridaHeat 5:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLdewey: LMAO... well just leave the sporting goods and the alcohol at home. do not worry i dont drink and i have watched other storm chasing video and know that the best thing to do is rent an suv for any storm i plan to chase 92l if she makes it to the gulf coast Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

570. StormsAreCool 5:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: It seems the best way to get someone to do something that isn't in their own interest is to beg them not to do it. "Don't drive through the water..." "Don't go to the hurricane party..." "Don't smoke..." "Don't do drugs..." "Don't..." === "Hmmm...I wonder what happens if I do this..." I don't drive through the water. All the others, I just gotta.. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

571. NASA101 5:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Drakoen: CMC and the NOGAPS have some company from the HWRF regarding 92L's track. 12Z HWRF takes 92L NNE to just east of PR and then resume WNW from there! Highly unlikely that 92L will move straight North/NNE!!! Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276

572. CosmicEvents 5:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: BEWARE THE NEXT 10 - 20 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER! aye-aye! Eye-Eye! Oy Vay! Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

574. Baybuddy 5:33 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I am worried through November. P.S. anyone got a suggestion for an a hand held anemometer for a nine year old? Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115

575. DaytonaBeachWatcher 5:33 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr: So from what I am reading here, Florida is safe from Igor due to the trough and from 92L from a blocking high. It is after that then the door could open up. Am I right? No such thing as safe, during hurricane season. Even if the pattern seems that way now, things can and will change. Member Since: June 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125

576. FLWeatherFreak91 5:33 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr: So from what I am reading here, Florida is safe from Igor due to the trough and from 92L from a blocking high. It is after that then the door could open up. Am I right? I just started looking at 92l about 20 min ago, and from what I've seen so far, there's no reason Fl is safe from 92l... Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

577. Tazmanian 5:33 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
this is where we saw Hurricane Felix in 07 this is in the same spot this could be part 2 but this time a little more N Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

578. tiggeriffic 5:34 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I live on the coast in SC...got nailed by Hugo...too many other near misses...I don't take any storm lightly until it has gone bye bye...and def don't go thru standing water... we have it daily at high tide and even worse during full moon or rain storms...already had my TA DA moment during Hugo...don't need another to wake me up.... Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

579. wayfaringstranger 5:35 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormW: Bastardi's take. THURSDAY If it's not Igor, it will be the next one behind it. A tandem, probably a trio, of tropical cyclones will have originated in the African wave train over the next 10-15 days and two, perhaps three, will come out of a more westward and southward source region discussed in yesterday's post. One of each is evident now, the African origin with Igor, the storm to be named probably before the weekend is through in the Caribbean, now organizing east of the southern Windwards. The overall pattern in 10-20 days is almost textbook for U.S. hits. The question is how does this come about. If Igor misses the connection with the trough near 60 west in 7-10 days, it will be the first threat for the East coast... but as I will show on the Long Ranger, in the longer term, the pattern says come to the U.S. in the means with the classic positive over southeastern Canada and negatives through the Gulf and into the southwest Atlantic. The last time that occurred we had Earl miss 50-100 miles east and a fast-rallying Hermine hit. The ante is upped here given the overall pattern being more favored for the Caribbean lighting up faster out of the second source. What could happen is the Caribbean system misses south, Igor misses east and then the following two close the gap in between. The reason the following two should not simply do the same as the front two is because the pattern evolves differently. Let's remember Earl got all the way back to 75.2; the original target recurve was quite a bit farther east with Fiona farther west. What usually happens here is it may take a while to get a handle on which one will do it, but one of them usually does. In the pattern backing up, and you saw this with Dennis and Floyd, Edouard and Fran, the second may be the one to come farther west. This time though, we are dealing with a much more pregnant situation since the Caribbean is starting to open for business. The Hatch-it Job folks are on this as they have changed from mellow yellow to orange you getting more concerned? Igor is looking better as the other low to the northeast is pulling it up toward it and it is coming down toward Igor. Soon, it will combine and turn due west and start to intensify.. A Fujiwara effect in the eastern Atlantic... though I guess by where it is, it would be a Fujiverde. In front of Igor are two swirls, one up near 22 north and 40 west and the other near 16 north and 42 west, while another strong wave is over Africa ready to follow Igor once he starts west. Thanks for reading. Ciao for now. Awesome. I save this and repost when the fish casters start hearlading their beloved one model approach. Most of em are ignored now but still a spoonful of this helps reality sink in. Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

580. Neapolitan 5:35 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: Funny though how people across Florida have very different perspectives on how dangerous and frequently hurricanes visit our state though. I have only experienced tropical cyclones in the Dominican Republic, and never really much at all while living in Florida for 18 years. In Tampa where I grew up, we were really only brushed by tropicals storm forces winds every 2-3 years. Some hurricanes came really close, but never directly struck the Bay. I was in school in Melbourne, fl from 2005-2008 and never once experienced hurricane force winds, and from that time on I have lived in Jacksonville (which of course hasn't received much in the way of tropical cyclones.) So I really don't feel that Florida is a dangerous place to live personally since I never seem to get hit... If you were to ask someone from the panhandle or south florida, you would surely get a very different opinion. Yes, you would: Click for larger image: Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

581. tiggeriffic 5:36 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Baybuddy: I am worried through November. P.S. anyone got a suggestion for an a hand held anemometer for a nine year old? U can actually get one at a sporting goods store, usually in the golf department... Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

582. angiest 5:37 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: Yes, you would: Click for larger image: Never really thought about it, but Harris County (Houston), TX is among the largest "coastal" counties in the US. It really sticks out on that map. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

584. stormwatcherCI 5:37 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Baybuddy: I am worried through November. P.S. anyone got a suggestion for an a hand held anemometer for a nine year old? Target should have them for around $40. The brand is LaCrosse. Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

587. angiest 5:38 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: I just started looking at 92l about 20 min ago, and from what I've seen so far, there's no reason Fl is safe from 92l... No reason to believe, at this time, that anyone in the Caribbean or GOM is safe from 92L. Heck, I think one of the models even had it grazing the northern coast of South American. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

588. tiggeriffic 5:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormW: Yes ma'am. Had a feeling this year would be the year...and to think...we are over due for an earthquake as well...storm rolls in, upsets the undersea fault lines and there ya go...wow... Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

590. Tazmanian 5:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
if you live any where from LA too AL you need too watch 92L so far this is not going too MX like Hurricane Felix did in 07 at lest not yet any way Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

592. tornadodude 5:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLdewey: Well good luck with that. Lots of folks watch videos and then go out and get them a storm. Chaser convergences in the central US have gotten so bad it's not worth chasing on high risk days any more. I suspect hurricane "chasers" will be the next cool thing to do. when was this taken? Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

593. stormwatcherCI 5:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tiggeriffic: Had a feeling this year would be the year...and to think...we are over due for an earthquake as well...storm rolls in, upsets the undersea fault lines and there ya go...wow... 3 months after Ivan the Cayman Islands had a 6.2 Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

594. Baybuddy 5:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting tiggeriffic: U can actually get one at a sporting goods store, usually in the golf department... thanks. My son is trying to establish trends in the weather. Thx again! Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115

595. bird72 5:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting NASA101: 12Z HWRF takes 92L NNE to just east of PR and then resume WNW from there! Highly unlikely that 92L will move straight North/NNE!!! Link? Member Since: August 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

596. Baybuddy 5:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: Target should have them for around $40. The brand is LaCrosse. Thanks! Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115

597. FloridaHeat 5:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FLdewey: Well good luck with that. Lots of folks watch videos and then go out and get them a storm. Chaser convergences in the central US have gotten so bad it's not worth chasing on high risk days any more. I suspect hurricane "chasers" will be the next cool thing to do. i have a hand held gps and it also tracks traffic for me so that will be a non issue Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

598. FLWeatherFreak91 5:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormsAreCool: I don't drive through the water. All the others, I just gotta.. Lmao that just made my day. Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

599. tiggeriffic 5:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Baybuddy: thanks. My son is trying to establish trends in the weather. Thx again! no problem...when my 21 year old was young he actually built a hurricane chamber and produced a hurricane in it...pretty cool...now my 6 year old is interested in weather...lol... Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3592

601. NASA101 5:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting bird72: Link? Quoting bird72: Link? Link Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276

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