Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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801. tornadodude 6:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 794: Yeah well, Katrina's feeder band was stronger than Hermine's "eye"...easily...and Oz is afraid of that? Im just saying that comparing any part of Katrina to Hermine is stupid Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

802. GTcooliebai 6:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting stormwatcherCI: CaribWx Tropical Update for 92L --"Invest 92"...this TROF-like feature along about 14N/65W...8N/50W (and along which the strongest squalls in SE Caribbean lie) is no longer associated with remnants of Gaston. The WAVE we mentioned yesterday E of Windwards has amplified...into a broad, weak LO, centered about 11N/59.5W, drifting W-WNW slowly, about 5k-or-less. --There is some chance LO could become a TropicalDepression/TropicalStorm over the next few days...NOAA increased risk assessment for Tropical LO formation next 48hrs from 10% yesterday afternoon to 40% this morning. I think I'd say 10% chance thru Noon tomorrow / 20% chance thru tomorrow night / 60% chance thru Sun12 (i.e. best chance for Tropical LO formation is Sat11 onward). --I look for 3 characteristics on satellite imagery to gauge risk for developing Tropical LO: #1 Convection is ABUNDANT (YES it is with Invest 92); #2 Convection is FOCUSED (NO, it is NOT with Invest 92); #3 Convection is PERSISTENT AT THE FOCAL POINT (NO...it's not even FOCUSED yet with Invest 92). --This analysis suggests to me Tropical LO formation next 24hrs is not likely. --LO may still lie not far from Windwards Sat11 morning...but SHOULD accelerate W-WNW beginning Sat11...and SHOULD exit SE Caribbean before it intensifies beyond a minimal TropicalStorm (NOTE the "SHOULD" wording...this is not 100% certain). --My Caribbean Forecasts assume TropicalStorm forms Sat11, just W of Windwards, and moves WNW while gradually strengthening. --LO should pass btwn ABCs & Hispanola about Mon13 / Jamaica area about Tue14 / Caymans area about Wed15 / NW Caribbean about Thu16-Fri17 / somewhere in GOMEX (most likely SW GOMEX) thereafter. --The first few Tropical models are just now (as I write this) weighing-in on prospects for "Invest 92"...unreliable BAM suite offers range of solutions...all variants have LO W of 65W near 13N-14N by Sat11 morning...spread on Tue14 morning from E of N Nicaragua 14N/82W (if it's a strong Hurricane) to S of Haiti 17N/74W if it's a weaker LO. --We'll have a much more confidence in a forecast this evening, when more Tropical models weigh-in, and I'll email an Update this evening. spread on Tue14 morning from E of N Nicaragua 14N/82W (if it's a strong Hurricane) to S of Haiti 17N/74W if it's a weaker LO is it possible for it to be the other way around, say a strong hurricane turns north, and a weaker storm stays south? Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5462

803. WeatherfanPR 6:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
weather conditions at Barbados 2 PM (18) Sep 09 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) N 13 light rain 1 PM (17) Sep 09 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NNW 8 with thunder showers Noon (16) Sep 09 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) SSW 12 rain weather conditions at Tobago 2 PM (18) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 15 1 PM (17) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 13 Noon (16) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 15 Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1516

804. tornadodude 6:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Anyway, I'm out for the afternoon, y'all have a good one Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816

805. PrivateIdaho 6:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
What this blog needs is an ignore topic button for posts on Oz, Gaston, GW,..... Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

806. ecflweatherfan 6:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting WeatherfanPR: weather conditions at Barbados 2 PM (18) Sep 09 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) N 13 light rain 1 PM (17) Sep 09 77 (25) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NNW 8 with thunder showers Noon (16) Sep 09 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) SSW 12 rain weather conditions at Tobago 2 PM (18) Sep 09 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 15 1 PM (17) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 13 Noon (16) Sep 09 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) WNW 15 Nice pressure drop at Barbados... 3mb since noon. Member Since: March 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 947

807. angiest 6:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: I don't think the 12Z will fully recurve Igor No trough to do it with If that happens, we are all doom. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

808. swlaaggie 6:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: Day 7 ECMWF.... Ike(or others that may know), question: The Euro model has both MSLP contours and the background coloring. I've looked for a color legend and do not see one. I assume the coloring is associated with pressure. Correct? If so, at what height?....or is it not height dependent? Easier stating: Despite my color = pressure assumption, what is the coloring try to tell me? tia Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1028

809. GTcooliebai 6:44 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting TOMSEFLA: gfdl hmrf have 92l near over or north of hispoanola. are they analyzing a stronger system or weaker? Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5462

810. wayfaringstranger 6:44 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho: What this blog needs is an ignore topic* button for posts on Oz, Gaston, GW,.....* +1,000,000 Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

812. StormSurgeon 6:45 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Where's Jennie going? Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

813. GoodOleBudSir 6:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting PrivateIdaho: What this blog needs is an ignore topic* button for posts on Oz, Gaston, GW,.....* .....and JFV Member Since: July 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 261

814. IKE 6:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting swlaaggie: Ike, question: The Euro model has both MSLP contours and the background coloring. I've looked for a color legend and do not see one. I assume the coloring is associated with pressure. Correct? If so, at what height?....or is it not height dependent? Easier stating: Despite my color = pressure assumption, what is the coloring try to tell me? tia Need to ask an expert...I don't think it's pressure related though. After looking again...it may be. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

815. CoopNTexas 6:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I believe the dark orange on the EURO map is a High pressure ridge. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 289

816. TOMSEFLA 6:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
looks about 1002 mb so nothing big.land interaction the prob Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 234

817. hunkerdown 6:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
story posted in today's Palm Beach Post, FWIW: WASHINGTON — The La Nina climate phenomenon is strengthening, increasing the likelihood an active hurricane season could get even busier. The update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday comes as residents of Texas are cleaning up from the deluge of Tropical Storm Hermine, and Tropical Storm Igor is drifting in the Atlantic. La Nina is marked by a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and was reported to be developing a month ago. It strengthened throughout August and appears likely to last at least through early 2011, NOAA's Climate Prediction Service said. "La Nina can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean," the center noted. Wind shear is a sharp difference in wind speed at different levels in the atmosphere. A strong wind shear reduces hurricanes by breaking up their ability to rise into the air, while less shear means they can climb and strengthen. NOAA has been calling for an above-normal tropical storm. The forecast issued in August anticipates 14 to 20 named tropical storms. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period runs from August through October. La Nina's cooling of the tropical Pacific is the opposite phase of the El Nino event, which is marked by unusually warm tropical water in that region. Each can take place every few years, usually with neutral conditions in between. Both can impact climate worldwide by changing the direction and strength of winds and altering air pressure and rainfall patterns. In addition to hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the impact of La Nina can include above-average rain or snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and below-average precipitation in the Southwest and in portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. In other regions, La Nina tends to suppress hurricane activity across the central and eastern tropical North Pacific and increases rainfall in Indonesia. NOAA said its computer climate models disagree on how strong this La Nina will be, but all concur it will last at least through early 2011. Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

818. FloridaHeat 6:47 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: They are taking advantage of your country mentality. You don't chase hurricanes, they chase you! Tornadoes are a different story. If they are chasing you, you are not a chaser but instead you are a "chasee". Picture a rodeo with a cowboy on a bull. He is the rider. When the bull is riding him, he may still be referred to technically as "the rider" but he is being ridden and its not a good thing for the cowboy. In like manner, tornadoes can alter their course and speed rather abruptly and without warning, (no matter what you saw on the movie "Twister" nobody can tell exactly where a tornado will go). This means you give the tornado a wide berth and use common sense, which occasionally means, you don't go after it. Tornado dude knows what I mean. The tornado has no roads and unless you are Doc, from "back to the future" with a flying DeLorean, you have to stay on the roads. Sometimes you can be trapped where the road ends and then you become the chasee. Not good. i will not have a country mentality tonight i am going to sarasota and that is very near to lakewood ranch it is bigger than shawnee ok but i am a city boy now Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

819. jeffs713 6:47 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting swlaaggie: Ike(or others that may know), question: The Euro model has both MSLP contours and the background coloring. I've looked for a color legend and do not see one. I assume the coloring is associated with pressure. Correct? If so, at what height?....or is it not height dependent? Easier stating: Despite my color = pressure assumption, what is the coloring try to tell me? tia Its temperature. Not sure what level, though. Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 15 Comments: 5729

821. CaribBoy 6:47 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Vero1: TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2010 A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN IT IS LOCATED SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 15N59W CROSSING THE LOW CENTER NEAR 12N60W CONTINUING SOUTH TO ABOUT 9N61W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...MOST LIKELY RELATED TO MONSOONAL TROUGHINESS IN THIS GENERAL REGION. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OBSERVED OVER THE ATLANTIC ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. lol every waves develop Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

822. angiest 6:47 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting BobinTampa: I gotta move to Texas then. The dopes down here can't figure out a regular 4-way stop, let alone that a downed traffic light is a 4-way. A couple months ago I watched two cars at a 4-way stop move a little, stop, move a little, stop, move a little, stop, go, smack right into each other. I wouldn't be surprised to find that there were a lot of wrecks at intersections, it happens when the lights are working. We are talking multi-lane roads meeting at 4-way stops and both roads at or above design capacity. Hard to work a 4-way correctly like that since some people hesitate and others move through more aggressively, etc. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

826. unruly 6:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FloridaHeat: i will not have a country mentality tonight i am going to sarasota and that is very near to lakewood ranch it is bigger than shawnee ok but i am a city boy now you can take the boy out of the country...but.... ahh alas.... Member Since: October 10, 2009 Posts: 27 Comments: 4455

827. angiest 6:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: Need to ask an expert...I don't think it's pressure related though. After looking again...it may be. i think those colours are the height anomalies, since those are 500mb height anomaly+MSLP maps. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

828. ShenValleyFlyFish 6:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid: No. It's like the difference between a thunderstorm and a flood. A flood can come from a thunderstorm, but a thunderstorm cannot form from a flood. Two different weather events. Actually after a flood thunderstorms may become more common form increased moisture in the upwelling air. ;) Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

829. IKE 6:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Day 8, ECMWF...Igor further west...92L looks headed for Mexico. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

830. xcool 6:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
CoopNTexas you got it rigth Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15526

831. angiest 6:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: HOLY MOTHER OF DOOM: Doom. Doom. Doom. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

832. wayfaringstranger 6:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting hunkerdown: story posted in today's Palm Beach Post, FWIW: WASHINGTON — The La Nina climate phenomenon is strengthening, increasing the likelihood an active hurricane season could get even busier. The update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday comes as residents of Texas are cleaning up from the deluge of Tropical Storm Hermine, and Tropical Storm Igor is drifting in the Atlantic. La Nina is marked by a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean and was reported to be developing a month ago. It strengthened throughout August and appears likely to last at least through early 2011, NOAA's Climate Prediction Service said. "La Nina can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean," the center noted. Wind shear is a sharp difference in wind speed at different levels in the atmosphere. A strong wind shear reduces hurricanes by breaking up their ability to rise into the air, while less shear means they can climb and strengthen. NOAA has been calling for an above-normal tropical storm. The forecast issued in August anticipates 14 to 20 named tropical storms. The hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30, but the peak period runs from August through October. La Nina's cooling of the tropical Pacific is the opposite phase of the El Nino event, which is marked by unusually warm tropical water in that region. Each can take place every few years, usually with neutral conditions in between. Both can impact climate worldwide by changing the direction and strength of winds and altering air pressure and rainfall patterns. In addition to hurricanes in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the impact of La Nina can include above-average rain or snowfall in the Pacific Northwest and below-average precipitation in the Southwest and in portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. In other regions, La Nina tends to suppress hurricane activity across the central and eastern tropical North Pacific and increases rainfall in Indonesia. NOAA said its computer climate models disagree on how strong this La Nina will be, but all concur it will last at least through early 2011. This I can testify...the air in TN/GA/AL has been very dry. We had started out in June with some humidity but as we progressed through August through now, the air is more dry with fewer clouds. If you live in the south or ever visited the south, then you know humidity. Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

833. txag91met 6:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting angiest: If that happens, we are all doom. You aren't doomed...long ways out still. Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 729

834. 1900hurricane 6:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting swlaaggie: Ike(or others that may know), question: The Euro model has both MSLP contours and the background coloring. I've looked for a color legend and do not see one. I assume the coloring is associated with pressure. Correct? If so, at what height?....or is it not height dependent? Easier stating: Despite my color = pressure assumption, what is the coloring try to tell me? tia The color fills is that of the 500 mb heights, which is a prominent steering influence with regards to tropical cyclones. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

835. belizeit 6:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Look at that nice cerculation at 58 w 13 n Ascat only caught half of it so it could still be open but its impressive Member Since: January 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 843

836. Thaale 6:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Why do the HWRF and CMC models take 92L on a NNE course for a while before turning it N and back W eventually? It's odd because although they're similar in that respect, the HWRF never even seems to get 92L to TS strength, whereas the CMC is up to its usual every-low-becomes-a-major tricks. The GFDL starts 92L off with a northward movement, but not NNE, so it brings 92L as a TS just south of Hispaniola and Cuba. Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308

837. kshipre1 6:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
LOL Storm. that was funny. I agree with ya all the way. it was obvious a pattern change was and is obvious. Just like you said a while back, things are going to get crazy my hats off to you Storm. you called it right again. nice job. Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

838. angiest 6:50 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: Day 8, ECMWF....part of day 8...Igor further west.... 905mb! Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

839. JustSouthofEquator 6:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Loop of the origins of 92L: Link It seemed to form directly from the ITCZ, as Levi described in his tropical tidbit Member Since: June 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 189

840. 1900hurricane 6:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: Day 8, ECMWF....part of day 8...Igor further west.... That 905 mb is the lowest I've ever seen on ECMWF. Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10456

843. Matt1989 6:52 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Well it looks like the trend for this year continues. Dry air, Anything coming off Afirca Recurves, anything that developes in Caribbean goes straight to mexico. Which is great for you US because it leaves us without a hurricane all year long ! :] Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 125

845. earthlydragonfly 6:52 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormW: LMAO! 320? Link Dont know about you Chief but Igor looks due west to me... Not a smig North Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1653

846. CaribBoy 6:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
12Z CMC, NGP, and NAM favor a northward (a tad less dangerous i'd like to say) motion for invest 92L mm there's also the HWRF Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2982

848. IKE 6:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
9 day ECMWF would be a severe Bermuda hit... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

849. angiest 6:54 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
With Euro showing a 905mb Igor, that would put him in company of Katrina, Camille, and Allen. If it verifies. Next run will, of course, show Igor degenerating into an open wave and dying. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

850. FloridaHeat 6:54 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting unruly: you can take the boy out of the country...but.... ahh alas.... i am very city now my friends back in shawnee wouldnt even recognize me anymore Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

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