Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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51. RufusBaker 2:10 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Im excited!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 510

53. FloridaHeat 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
i am not sure if i am more concerned about the record heat or the possible major hurricane julia Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

54. hurricanehanna 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
jinkies! I pop in and read Doc is worried....this can't be good. *reached for valium* Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

55. lennit 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
there may may be an opportunity for 92 L to escape N in a few days. a weakness in the 500mb layer could develop to the N of 92L Member Since: October 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 101

56. muddertracker 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
What are the odds that good ole Joe B. calls for mass scale evacuations today on his blog? Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

58. FloridaHeat 2:12 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting muddertracker: What are the odds that good ole Joe B. calls for mass scale evacuations today on his blog? evacuations for who Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

59. BobinTampa 2:13 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FloridaHeat: evacuations for who Earth Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

61. muddertracker 2:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FloridaHeat: evacuations for who Everyone who lives near an ocean...sarcasm flag ON Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

62. bird72 2:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormW: Quoting kshipre1: Storm, good morning. couple of quick questions for you. First, with the forward speed of Igor slowing and now moving north, when the high builds back in in a few days, do you see a potential pick up in forward speed enough where it could miss the strong trough at 60W? Second, when wunderground posts Invest systems, why does it now show models like the GFS, EMCWF, UKMET, NOGAPS, etc..? thanks Right now...probably not...steering layers forecast shows the trof being pretty hefty...unless his slowing stays in place for a few days...again, it will all be a matter of timing with Igor. It will be interesting to see...as the models didn't foresee a stall...so this kinda puts a little change into things. On the models, the ones that are posted first are the statistical guidance. The others are the dynamic models, and need time to work with and initialize the system before track guidance can be worked out. That same trof can make 92l go north? Member Since: August 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 388

63. FloridaHeat 2:14 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting BobinTampa: Earth ???????????????? Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

65. StormsAreCool 2:15 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: I don't see how this big of a temperature fluctuation can be explained by anything other than solar fluctuations. There was a lot of weird solar activity in the past several months, including a gargantuan "solar tsunami". Many of those temperature records were only broken by tenths of a degree, anyway. The earth is going through a natural heat cycle and the temps will begin to decline again soon. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

68. MsTekkie 2:16 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting muddertracker: What are the odds that good ole Joe B. calls for mass scale evacuations today on his blog? giggle Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 14

72. FloridaHeat 2:17 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 32: Global warming might explain an above average summer, but it by no means explains a top 15% coldest winter. Global warming should be causing record high over night lows, especially during winter, and relatively uniformly with longitude, everywhere on the planet, though higher latitudes would expect a higher change. Now of course winds and ocean currents have a role to play. Anyway, let's repeat my point: For any given observation point, global warming SHOULD be most noticeable at night during winter, in the form of above average or record high temps for over night lows. Now the most extreme case of global warming due to greenhouse effect is isothermal equilibrium. While "mild" greenhouse effects should predictably approach isothermal equilibrium as an assymptote. This is exactly opposite of what has actually been observed in North America the past few years. We are having colder than average winters (coldest 10 to 20 percent,) in the same year as record breaking or near record breaking summers. i have read that global warming also causes cold winters and snow so you must take that into account and you keep ignoring a tenth of a degree and over time that adds up and before you know it humans are extinct we have covered that a lot in one of my global warming classes Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

74. FormerTigergirl 2:17 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Will 92L be "Julia"? Cause that's my name, and I've been known to cause a little trouble before... Member Since: July 6, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

75. MSKajun 2:17 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Just curious...is 92L exG? Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

76. goavs4 2:18 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Wow, looking at that map of all historical tropical depressions within 65 miles of where 92L is now are the names: Edith, Felix, Dennis (cat 5's) Charley, Iris (cat 4's) and half a dozen other storms that made it to either cat 2 or 3, that is scary indeed Dr. Masters. Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

77. JBirdFireMedic 2:18 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting MSKajun: Just curious...is 92L exG? nope Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

79. mnborn 2:18 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting gordydunnot: Patrap, I here through the grapevine you are planning a retirement party for a Mr. Farve tonight. Thought I would inject a little diversion, as I get a little nervous when I see the doc. use that type of language. Seldom known to over-hype from my experience. I hope he puts the Saints back in their place this time! Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 59

80. hcubed 2:18 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting will40: what prize do GW post receive? HOT pads. Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639

81. oracle28 2:19 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
"This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology." Thank goodness, lets keep up the good fortune of no landfalling hurricanes this year in the U.S. Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 573

83. IKE 2:19 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting FloridaHeat: is there a intensity model Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

85. Stormchaser2007 2:20 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Those are some pretty hefty analogs for 92L. FULL IMAGE Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

86. FloridaHeat 2:20 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: truly scarey Member Since: July 31, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 357

89. IKE 2:21 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
The Chart Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

90. JBirdFireMedic 2:21 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: HOLY! Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 246

92. JLPR2 2:22 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
So I could get rain from Possible Julia? -.- Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

93. StormsAreCool 2:22 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Sorry. What is "GW"? Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

94. IKE 2:23 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormsAreCool: Sorry. What is "GW"? Teh warming of the planet....global warming. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

95. gordydunnot 2:23 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Common 74 your avatar is way to cute to cause trouble. Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

97. Dixiegirl 2:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormsAreCool: Many of those temperature records were only broken by tenths of a degree, anyway. The earth is going through a natural heat cycle and the temps will begin to decline again soon. Thank you. I vividly remember the fear mongers screaming "WE ARE HAVING AN ICE AGE!!!!!" back in the 70s. Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 16

98. MSKajun 2:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting JBirdFireMedic: nope Thank you!!! Member Since: September 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

100. rossclick 2:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
it'll be interesting to see where models put this on the first few runs Member Since: May 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111

101. GeoffreyWPB 2:25 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: WARNING: Blog drifting into GW banter. Save the Women and Children first! Captain Jeff...There's only enough lifeboats for half the bloggers! Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9124

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