Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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1002. TexasHurricane 7:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
check back later... Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1003. NOLALawyer 7:39 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting IKE: Here's the GFS ensembles on 92L.... Within that patchwork, there is a straggler, an outlier...that straggler is the Holy Grail. Something so rare we have not seen it since 1921.... Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

1004. Orcasystems 7:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1005. ShenValleyFlyFish 7:40 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting nolesjeff: post of the day! word ;) Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1007. angiest 7:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting NOLALawyer: Within that patchwork, there is a straggler, an outlier...that straggler is the Holy Grail. Something so rare we have not seen it since 1921.... Tampa has a shield, haven't you heard? And if that fails them there is always HAARP. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

1008. Orcasystems 7:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: word ;) Hmm Old dog.. new tricks :) Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

1009. Bordonaro 7:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Tornado Damage in Dallas 09-09-10, taken at 12:45PM CDT today by myself.. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1010. kshipre1 7:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
certainly looks like the models are picking up on something later on in the forecast period for 92L taking this further north then west. Maybe the trough will induce a weakness in the High? Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

1011. sailfish01 7:42 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I'm not liking the lastest model runs. 92L a threat to bahamas, keys and S FL (depending on if it can stay offshore of DR and Cuba)and now ECMWF showing Igor a threat to N US coast The CMC showing Igor missing the weakness and high building back in. Stay tuned for sure. Member Since: October 20, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

1012. scott39 7:43 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Well it looks like all the models agree that 92L is going to wind up in the GOM. What does the soup look like then? Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

1013. angiest 7:44 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting scott39: Well it looks like all the models agree that 92L is going to wind up in the GOM. What does the soup look like then? There's still a bit of spread. But any track into the NW Caribbean or GOM is not good (assuming ideal atmospheric conditions). Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

1014. hydrus 7:44 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting NOLALawyer: Within that patchwork, there is a straggler, an outlier...that straggler is the Holy Grail. Something so rare we have not seen it since 1921.... Check this out if you have time....Link Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

1016. scott39 7:45 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I dont see anybody talking about whats behind Igor and where its going. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

1019. BobinTampa 7:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Tornado Damage in Dallas 09-09-10, taken at 12:45PM CDT today by myself.. wow. anyone hurt? Hope the driver wasn't in that truck. Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 508

1020. kshipre1 7:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
yikes Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

1021. Bordonaro 7:46 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Dallas, TX tornado damage from TD Hermine.. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1022. angiest 7:47 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting scott39: I dont see anybody talking about whats behind Igor and where its going. I briefly mentioned it earlier. Euro seems to show it a pretty solid cat 4, but we don't even get to the end of Igor yet, it seems, so no way at all to know the ultimate fate of whoever that is. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

1023. hydrus 7:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting sailfish01: I'm not liking the lastest model runs. 92L a threat to bahamas, keys and S FL (depending on if it can stay offshore of DR and Cuba)and now ECMWF showing Igor a threat to N US coast The CMC showing Igor missing the weakness and high building back in. Stay tuned for sure. Yes...This will be a complex weather situation to say the least. Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14238

1024. Bordonaro 7:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting BobinTampa: wow. anyone hurt? Hope the driver wasn't in that truck. Unfortunately, he was. The truck was slammed into the warehouse. He had serious injuries, but they are expecting him to be alright! Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1025. angiest 7:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting BobinTampa: wow. anyone hurt? Hope the driver wasn't in that truck. I think the driver was in it, if that is the truck/building collision I am thinking of. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

1026. StormsAreCool 7:48 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting angiest: There's still a bit of spread. But any track into the NW Caribbean or GOM is not good (assuming ideal atmospheric conditions). "good" is relative. Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 133

1027. IKE 7:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Day 7 HPC map..... Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

1028. Bordonaro 7:49 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Dallas Tornado damage at Mockingbird Ln and Irving Blvd.. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1029. flsky 7:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Tornado Damage in Dallas 09-09-10, taken at 12:45PM CDT today by myself.. Notice the lamp (vase?) still upright in the midst of all the chaos and rubble. Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1265

1030. dolphin13 7:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting SQUAWK: Oh leave him alone. He is going to earn his Darwin Award the hard way. Quoting seflagamma: I must stop from my reading and minute and say SQUAWK, this is just too funny. thanks for the belly laugh. I agree gamma!!!! That was great Squawk!! Would be even funnier if many encounters with tropical cyclones weren't so devastating!! But they are...rethink your ambitions young man:) Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

1031. angiest 7:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting StormsAreCool: "good" is relative. Pretty high population densities, and you either have places (Tampa, FL, Corpus Christi, TX) that haven't been hit in a long time and therefore large populations of inexperienced people, or others (Houston, LA, MS, AL, FL) that still have people rebuilding from recent hits... that sounds pretty not good. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

1032. ShenValleyFlyFish 7:51 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting angiest: LOL, a link to a gopher client. I remember using that. And NCSA Mosaic and Netscape 1.0. I first got it in for microsoft when they killed NetScape. Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1033. WeatherNerdPR 7:52 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Does anyone have any good satellite imagery on Igor? Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464

1034. mtyweatherfan90 7:52 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Hey guys good evening, with that record high TCHP contents, do you believe future 92L could end in the top 5 strongest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic Basin (following the GFS model). If it does, it could create some real havoc down there at Yucatan and afterwards in NMexico/Texas depending on how westerly or not the track remains. Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334

1035. CosmicEvents 7:52 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
I think it's safe to say that on the peak day of hurricane season(12th?) we'll be looking at an active...if not hyper-active, Atlantic basin. And that ain't piffle. Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5093

1036. angiest 7:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting mtyweatherfan90: Hey guys good evening, with that record high TCHP contents, do you believe future 92L could end in the top 5 strongest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic Basin (following the GFS model). If it does, it could create some real havoc down there at Yucatan and afterwards in NMexico/Texas depending on how westerly or not the track remains. What does GFS say about pre-Julia's strength? Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

1037. scott39 7:53 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting angiest: I briefly mentioned it earlier. Euro seems to show it a pretty solid cat 4, but we don't even get to the end of Igor yet, it seems, so no way at all to know the ultimate fate of whoever that is. This Potential batch of TCs look more land threatning than the D E F @ G TCs we just had. Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6207

1038. CybrTeddy 7:54 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Pretty rare when the Doc calls a invest 'potentially dangerous', looks like a active weekend coming up. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20179

1039. Bordonaro 7:54 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
18 wheeler against warehouse. Truck was thrown into the warehouse by a tornado in Dallas, spawned by TD Hermine..Between 5-12" of rain in the DFW, TX area and 4 tornadoes..WOO HOO.. NEVER underestimate the power of a weak TS.. Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1040. TampaSpin 7:54 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
TROPICAL UPDATE Posted by TampaSpin on September 9, 2010 at 3:39 PM Wow, how things can change i a short period of time when the Atlantic as at its hottest time of the Tropical Season. We have 4 areas of interest that is identified on my graphic above. The NHC has Igor and Invest92L and i have also circled 2 areas in blue. Working left to right, the area of interest i have circled in blue in the Central Caribbean is old Gaston. There still is Vorticity at 850mb and its seems to be getting better organized today. This area should track WSW into the Yucatan and possibly emerge into the BOC. I think there is a still a good chance that we will still hear from Gaston again. Next we have Invest 92L, which models are forecasting to become a possible Major Hurricane in about 120hrs. I think this might be possible but, Shear is currently 15-20kts in the general area. Conditions should improve as it moves Westward. Currently, this again looks like a Yucatan Penn. hit as well as high pressure should keep 92L south and then a possible curve to the North once into the BOC or Gom. We really gotta keep our eyes on this as Models are not very good without a truly developed system. BEWARE! Next, we have Igor which is in the far Eastern Atlantic. Igor is currently under some wind Shear from the SW blowing the tops off to the East of the Center. Conditions should improve as it moves generally to the West. This is gonna get tricky. Models also suggest Igor to become near a Major Hurricane with a possible opening to allow Igor to make the curve out to sea before impacting any land mass except possbily Bermuda. Its really way to early to tell as there will be a very large area of High Pressure from the Azore and Bermuda High that does build in as we will have plenty of time to watch Igor and its movement. No Worries yet and in my opioion i don't see one coming but, i have little confidence in making such a statement too. Next, we have a system that will be rolling off tha Coast of Africa that models show as well to develop very quickly into a Hurricane in time. Wow, is the Cape Verde busy. I hope you all like the Models i have put up on the Website with thanks from Tampa13 Weather. Wow, does Paul Dellegatto and that team have it going over there. Great Site they have going. Check it out. Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

1042. angiest 7:55 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting scott39: This Potential batch of TCs look more land threatning than the D E F @ G TCs we just had. And geez, imagine if Hermine had had any easterly component to her motion. With a few more hours (maybe as much as a day) over water how much could she have ramped up? Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4757

1043. ShenValleyFlyFish 7:55 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: Hmm Old dog.. new tricks :) Very old dog. Can't be a new trick. If I know it it is long pase. Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

1044. Bordonaro 7:56 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting flsky: Notice the lamp (vase?) still upright in the midst of all the chaos and rubble. Yes that was amazing..The warehouse will literally ripped apart, an 18 wheeler was thrown 200 ft into the building, BUT the lamp is untouched on the desk..HMM!!! Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

1045. CaribBoy 7:56 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
92L's convection drifting north north westward Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2845

1046. EricSFL 7:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 756

1047. flsky 7:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems: California - Normal Military - Intelligence See the correlation? Being from CA, what's your point?! Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1265

1049. CoopNTexas 7:57 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
FYI....NHC issued Gastón his death certificate. Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 289

1050. NOLALawyer 7:58 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: 18 wheeler against warehouse. Truck was thrown into the warehouse by a tornado in Dallas, spawned by TD Hermine..Between 5-12" of rain in the DFW, TX area and 4 tornadoes..WOO HOO.. NEVER underestimate the power of a weak TS.. Never underestimate the Beaver Express. Powerful stuff..... Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 517

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