Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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2301. angiest 4:03 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
GFS is at hour 72, and I am now willing to say it has dropped 92L. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2302. FloridaTigers 4:04 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Grothar: You are probably correct. Nothing has been seen like it since. Here is the satellite view. No one believed it at the time. No way Tip there is half the size of the continental US. No way. Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 559

2303. xcool 4:04 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
OH wow Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2304. xcool 4:04 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
gfs drop 92L Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2305. Grothar 4:04 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting angiest: Although I can certainly see why they stopped, the lack of recon in the WPac means we may miss some record setters out there. Can we distinguish 870mb and 865 from satellite? Very true. They use the Dvorak method, which could not possibly be as accurate as a direct drop. There have been other Pacific systems which were most likely stronger,albeit not as large, but we will never know because we do not have the data. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19535

2306. CoopNTexas 4:05 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
gfs 0z like 18z, doesn't develop 92L... Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 289

2307. xcool 4:05 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2309. 1900hurricane 4:05 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
78 hours = Hmmm..... Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

2310. Orcasystems 4:05 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Updated with the new Model Tracks. AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2312. angiest 4:06 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting FloridaTigers: No way Tip there is half the size of the continental US. No way. Recon flew through it, that's how they got the 870mb pressure. Surely they could give a good estimate of the size. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2313. StormSurgeon 4:07 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Who's your favorite band? Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

2314. angiest 4:07 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: 78 hours = Hmmm..... Igor is a flying hat or something. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2315. xcool 4:07 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
what's really going on gfs Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2316. TexasHurricane 4:07 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting xcool: gfs drop 92L I just don't get it. We got good conditions for a storm and they are just having a hard time to get going....strange. I must be missing something. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2317. xcool 4:07 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
here 90hrs Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2318. 954FtLCane 4:08 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting btwntx08: give the gfs to 108 hrs if not then gfs is trash and if it develops then the gfs is stupidier you have a link for the gfs run? If so please send. TIA Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1464

2319. reedzone 4:08 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Igors unexpected stall/stationary movements has caused the models to have the storm miss the trough that was supposed to recurve him. Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

2321. angiest 4:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
96hours and the 500mb height seems to be getting stronger, or whatever word is appropriate. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2322. xcool 4:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
' Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2323. Bordonaro 4:09 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting 954FtLCane: you have a link for the gfs run? If so please send. TIA Link Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2324. KoritheMan 4:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Hey guys, I just did a blog on Igor and 92L. Enjoy! Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15433

2325. xcool 4:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2326. NOSinger 4:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
I think the only way we will see a storm close to the CONUS is if the shear is high, dry air is plentiful, SST's are cold, and cold fronts are pounding southward....lol...j/k. This year is one I can honestly say, is totally mind boggling. Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232

2327. WeatherMSK 4:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Looks like models have Igor trending farther west as was expected. Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465

2328. angiest 4:10 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting xcool: very far south... Storm behind it seems stuck in weak steering. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2330. will40 4:11 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
due west at 102 hrs Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

2331. angiest 4:11 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting xcool: On cue, GFS is opening a weakness. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2332. 1900hurricane 4:11 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Looks like he may head for the weakness this run: Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

2333. Barkeep1967 4:12 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: 2 Critically injured at the Saint Francis hospital, 5 others at another local hospital.. It would be great if there was an actual news channel left to cover this. They are more worried about who will run for president in 2020 and how they can blame the economy on somebody. Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 193

2334. angiest 4:13 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Barkeep1967: It would be great if there was an actual news channel left to cover this. They are more worried about who will run for president in 2020 and how they can blame the economy on somebody. My news is coming from the @BNONews people on twitter (@mpoppel and @RodrigoBNO) Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2335. angiest 4:13 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Looks like he may head for the weakness this run: That weakness closes up. Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2336. xcool 4:13 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2337. ShenValleyFlyFish 4:13 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason: 2258: Honestly, I never did get that scene at all, other than it's just so stupid it's funny... The horses know that FB is trouble. Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

2338. 1900hurricane 4:13 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: Looks like he may head for the weakness this run: .....Or not? Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

2339. Bordonaro 4:14 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Barkeep1967: It would be great if there was an actual news channel left to cover this. They are more worried about who will run for president in 2020 and how they can blame the economy on somebody. Here you live coverage from KGO TV Ch 7* Link Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments:** 6785

2340. leo305 4:15 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane: .....Or not? if that model run holds true, it could move WNW/NW towardds the weakness, and if it closes, back to a WEST movement, and that would be a severe scenerio for the U.S Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1752

2341. angiest 4:15 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Eeek Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4765

2343. StormSurgeon 4:15 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
BOC Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1792

2344. xcool 4:16 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
stalled 120hr Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2345. fatlady99 4:16 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish: The horses know that FB is trouble. You have to know a bit about the original. It's a spoof... Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

2347. xcool 4:17 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2348. xcool 4:17 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
nam trash lol Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501

2349. TexasHurricane 4:17 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting StormSurgeon: BOC Quoting StormSurgeon: BOC what? Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2350. Barkeep1967 4:17 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro: Here you live coverage from KGO TV Ch 7* Link thank you very much. My point still stands though what happened to CNN etc... Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments:** 193

2351. 1900hurricane 4:18 AM GMT on September 10, 2010
It's gonna be a close one: Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10366

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