Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.

Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.

Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)

Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine

Hermine is on the way (BBedford)

Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.

Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)

An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.

Categories: Flood Climate Summaries Hurricane

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2751. weathermanwannabe 12:35 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
2738. stormwatcherCI 8:08 AM EDT on September 10, 2010 Good Morning Folk and nice "catch" SW....Incredibly low shear in the Carribean is right......I thought that 92L would have gotten a better grove on by now but I am most surprised by the fact that it reamins nearly stationary since yesterday.....Forget the model guidance on this one for now; it could really almost go anywhere once it gets going but where is anyone's guess at the moment....Igor looking real good this AM and have to see where the ridging sets up over the next several days. Could be a fish as currently suggested by the models, or, some ridging could build back....It's all about the timing of ridging and trofs down the road. Oh, Happy Peak of the Season Day Everyone......So far so good for CONUS but it's a watch and wait for now on 92 and Igor....Nothing else out there at the moment. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676

2752. Orcasystems 12:37 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
AOI AOI AOI AOI AOI TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2753. IKE 12:39 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
6Z GFDL on 92L. 6Z HWRF on 92L. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2754. weathermanwannabe 12:40 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting StormW: Good morning all! Morning Storm......Looking at the loops it does appear that 92L has "detached" from the ITCZ but a really slow burn at the moment. Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676

2755. IKE 12:40 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting IKE: 6Z GFDL on 92L. 6Z HWRF on 92L. Looking at 92L...looks to be moving just north of west. Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

2756. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:41 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Invest 92L looks really good if you look at it structure wise. I definitely wouldn't have 92L at 40% for the next 48 hours. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

2759. Neapolitan 12:42 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
As of just now: AL, 92, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 602W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

2762. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:45 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan: As of just now: AL, 92, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 602W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Still needs some work too do...I expect Tropical Depression #12 tomorrow Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

2763. ssmate 12:46 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Blog is DEAD considering the date. What makes you think this date is special? Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347

2764. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:46 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
We should have TS Igor at 11AM: Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

2765. kshipre1 12:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
ok, the 5AM models on wunderground make no sense for Igor. Models show recurving as early as 45 degrees west? The 5AM advisory for Igor specifically stated that now some of the models are now forecasting stronger ridge to the north which I think depending on how strong the trough is and timing of when that trough arrives putting potentially the Bahamas and South Florida at risk. Can someone else weigh in on this? Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

2766. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:47 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting ssmate: What makes you think this date is special? ... Today's the peak of the hurricane season Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25215

2767. tkeith 12:49 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Blog is DEAD considering the date. Yeah, I know, it's usually a little more active on Fridays... Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8838

2768. ssmate 12:50 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
I was kidding...looking for the chart. Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347

2769. tkeith 12:50 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting ssmate: I was kidding...looking for the chart. what chart? Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8838

2771. WeatherMSK 12:51 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Its called people are sleeping Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465

2772. Bayside 12:51 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff: Happy Peak Day, everybody! Well, that's it, season's a bust! I kid, I kid... Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 65

2773. kshipre1 12:53 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
true true Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

2775. moonlightcowboy 12:53 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting tkeith: Anybody seen Gaston? Last report said he was on the corner of Bourbon and Toulouse laid out on the sidewalk - had a beer in one hand, a shrimps in da other one and a big grin on his face! ;) ...who dat? Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

2776. HCW 12:53 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Tropical Trouble Member Since: August 10, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 1280

2777. ssmate 12:54 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Destin Jeff has a cool chart that shows how big a mountain is. Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347

2779. tkeith 12:54 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting moonlightcowboy: Last report said he was on the corner of Bourbon and Toulouse laid out on the sidewalk - had a beer in one hand, a shrimps in da other one and a big grin on his face! ;) ...who dat? LOL! mornin MLC :) Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8838

2780. SQUAWK 12:55 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Peak day on Extenze!!!! Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497

2781. tkeith 12:55 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting StormW: This chart? Whoop...there it is Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8838

2782. CyclonicVoyage 12:55 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting IKE: 6Z GFDL on 92L. 6Z HWRF on 92L. Not liking those runs. Good thing there is at least 20 or 30 more. However, they don't seem to be as confident with IGOR's recurvature. GFDL just kinda hangs it there with no appreciable gain in latitude at the end of the run. Of note, 92L is present ahead of IGOR in both models. Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

2785. Cotillion 12:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Igor's back to TS. Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

2786. tkeith 12:57 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting SQUAWK: Peak day on Extenze!!!! No wonder Jimmy Johnson (coach not driver) is always smilin... LMAO! Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8838

2788. Cotillion 12:58 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
000 WHXX01 KWBC 101254 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1254 UTC FRI SEP 10 2010 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IGOR (AL112010) 20100910 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 100910 1200 100911 0000 100911 1200 100912 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.3N 30.3W 17.1N 32.6W 17.9N 35.1W 19.0N 38.0W BAMD 16.3N 30.3W 16.9N 33.3W 17.4N 36.4W 18.0N 39.2W BAMM 16.3N 30.3W 17.1N 33.0W 17.8N 36.0W 18.6N 39.1W LBAR 16.3N 30.3W 16.9N 33.4W 17.6N 37.0W 18.2N 40.5W SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 63KTS DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 63KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 100912 1200 100913 1200 100914 1200 100915 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 20.1N 41.5W 21.6N 49.4W 20.4N 56.6W 17.0N 60.0W BAMD 18.5N 42.1W 19.6N 47.1W 20.7N 51.1W 21.5N 53.9W BAMM 19.2N 42.4W 19.8N 49.2W 18.6N 53.8W 17.7N 53.7W LBAR 18.6N 44.0W 19.4N 49.7W 19.0N 52.0W 19.8N 53.5W SHIP 74KTS 90KTS 97KTS 100KTS DSHP 74KTS 90KTS 97KTS 100KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 30.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT LATM12 = 15.3N LONM12 = 27.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 13KT LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 24.5W WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM $$ NNNN Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

2789. WeatherMSK 12:58 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
I fully expect the models to continue trend west with Igor. Not so sure on a Florida impact with him though. Looks like there are too many chances for Igor to feel weaknesses down the road. If he doesn't get turned it could be a SE CONUS hit. Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 465

2790. markot 12:59 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
ive been tryin to tell everyone if you read the discussions this morning, from nhc. there has been a significant change in the models. taking igor on a more west course past five days. and will bea very large and intense hurricane..... Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 226

2791. Neapolitan 1:00 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
As Cotillion says: BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al112010.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201009101252 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END IGOR, AL, L, , , , , 11, 2010, TS, O, 2010090718, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL112010 AL, 11, 2010090700, , BEST, 0, 128N, 189W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 11, 2010090706, , BEST, 0, 132N, 195W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 11, 2010090712, , BEST, 0, 137N, 201W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 11, 2010090718, , BEST, 0, 140N, 211W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 11, 2010090800, , BEST, 0, 140N, 219W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 11, 2010090806, , BEST, 0, 139N, 226W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, AL, 11, 2010090812, , BEST, 0, 138N, 233W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 180, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, AL, 11, 2010090818, , BEST, 0, 138N, 237W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 180, 30, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, AL, 11, 2010090900, , BEST, 0, 138N, 242W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 125, 30, 50, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30 AL, 11, 2010090906, , BEST, 0, 138N, 243W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30, 1010, 125, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 0, 45, 45, 30 AL, 11, 2010090912, , BEST, 0, 142N, 245W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 160, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 30, 60, 60, 60 AL, 11, 2010090918, , BEST, 0, 149N, 263W, 35, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 30, 1009, 90, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 30, 60, 60, 60 AL, 11, 2010091000, , BEST, 0, 153N, 274W, 30, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 90, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, 12, NEQ, 30, 45, 30, 30 AL, 11, 2010091006, , BEST, 0, 159N, 287W, 30, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 90, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, S, AL, 11, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 163N, 303W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 30, 30, 1012, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IGOR, M, Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

2792. moonlightcowboy 1:00 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Isn't 92L's location in the "dead zone?" Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28117

2793. hercj 1:01 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting StormW: Yeah..gonna be slow...something similar to Alex and Bonnie. Does that mean this is once again similar to a West Pac typhoon, Senior? Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319

2794. Jax82 1:02 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Well its all downhill from here! According to the chart that is ;) Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261

2795. kshipre1 1:03 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
sorry everyone. I did not mean to cause a chaos in this chat room. when I entered, I did not look below at the other discussions Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1130

2798. weathermanwannabe 1:04 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting moonlightcowboy: Isn't 92L's location in the "dead zone?" Morning...You are correct but I don't quite understand the concept....Best explanation I saw on here was from Kman last year and it had to do with the preveiling westerlies and such and a few other other factors......Most viable storms already hit this area as a TS, or, don't develop until further west in this area (or get ripped apart by Hispanola if they remain weak in this general area). Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676

2800. rmbjoe1954 1:04 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting IKE: 6Z GFDL on 92L. 6Z HWRF on 92L. Well those model runs show a potential problem; but I guess in that environment any direction is possible. Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 726

2801. stillwaiting 1:06 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Quoting cat5hurricane: Happy Peak Day to you too! That Igor is already a monster. Still waiting on 92L to get it's act together. ...,i've been "stillwaiting" for almost 3 yrs!!!!,lol Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

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