Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:
Levi,
Fantastic update!

You see now the models I was talking?
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522. IKE
Quoting jrweatherman:


Assuming that 92L becomes Julia and follows the path,we are so lucky that the U.S. has not had a hurricane direct hit. The pattern has been relentless all summer with CV recurving and southern storms driving into Northern Mexico.


I agree...see post 511.
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Quoting Jedkins01:




Yeah, not so pumped about what I'm doing now lol, more of what I'm looking forward to. I'm doing all the math and physics first before I do the actual MET classes, so there's nothing pretty or exciting about school yet.

Its just a good feeling to know what lies ahead, and what I can look forward to!


Hi Jed,

So happy you are going to FSU, so many of our young here went to Met School there. I know you love Meteorology and will be so successful.

It has been so much fun watching all of you "kids" from 5 years ago become "young adult" students of weather!

and I see we now have a new young crop of "kids" on here with aspirations and great talent!

Gamma
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Quoting weatherlover94:


hey storm do you think its looking a little more likey that the us may have a direct landfall or have this thing pull an isabel track?


and i quoted the wrong thing but my question is the same
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519. IKE
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

what the...


Not saying this toward you...but when the GFS..CMC...NOGAPS do little to nothing with 92L and the ECMWF does this with it...link, it's saying something to me.
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My first post as a long time lurker. I live a short pitching wedge from kman on the sea, so you can imagine 92L has my attention.

I have been looking at the NHC Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast site and the FSU Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis site and if I am reading them correctly, they are not showing much by way development of 92L. The early cycle intensity site at ColoStat is showing 92L at cat1-cat2 level by the time it is in my neighbourhood.

Can anyone help me out in reconciling this discrepancy?

Big fan of a number of the regular posters on here and thanks for all the info. I've read over the last few years.
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Quoting StormW:


No..it's not.


hey storm do you think its looking a little more likey that the us may have a direct landfall or have this thing pull an isabel track?
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The truth hurts this so called pattern change i have been hearing about for weeks did not have any major storms impact US.This was suppose to be just the opposite.If you tell the truth you are a troll,if you fantasy cast you are right. lol
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512. beell
Quoting weathergeek5:
Storm or whoever:

Have a a few questions


1. Have you ever wished to experience a hurricane?

2. Did your opinion of hurricanes change after you experienced it?

3. What changes did you make after the experience of the hurricane?


1. Yes
2. Yes.
3. Pants
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511. IKE
lennit...I will agree, it's been stuck in the same pattern all season...

(1)Northern islands and points NNW through NNE of there.
(2)Western Caribbean crossing the Yucatan...heading toward Mexico and lower Texas.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Thanks!

Its good to see there are actually few people on this blog like you still that correct me and actually know what they are talking about. I hate when people immaturely make rude replies to me and don't have a clue about meteorology lol.


I like learning new things, after all that's why I'm going to college now for meteorology. Correction is good, as long as it comes from people who know their stuff!

which college are you currently attending? jedkins
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Quoting extreme236:
SAB now at TOO WEAK on 92L...TAFB still at T2.0

what the...
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Quoting Kibkaos:


Gotcha. I just wanted to stay clear troll classification. Seriously though it is amazing how active this season is compared to earlier this summer. Is this what you have been expecting?


Yup, we've pretty much been expecting this. Still got a couple of weeks left of this. It'll probably let up about Mid-October.
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Igor should be a hurricane or almost one:

SAB: T3.5/3.5 55kts
TAFB: T4.5/4.5 77kts
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SAB now at TOO WEAK on 92L...TAFB still at T2.0
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Quoting jacechase:


we are supposed to have a "cold Front" move thru here, lake charles area on monday, should be a drop in humidity, and wondering if this will nudge the storm northwestward
Perhaps draw it to the northern gulf.
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Just like I said before. After Sept 1st troughs get larger and further south. Hurricanes and storms will always get deflected off the coast. No reason to worry it is not July or August guys
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503. IKE
Quoting jacechase:


we are supposed to have a "cold Front" move thru here, lake charles area on monday, should be a drop in humidity, and wondering if this will nudge the storm northwestward


I don't think it's suppose to...at this time. High pressure over the GOM should keep it moving WNW or even west on the end of model runs, from what I've seen.
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Quoting weathergeek5:
Storm or whoever:

Have a a few questions


1. Have you ever wished to experience a hurricane?

2. Did your opinion of hurricanes change after you experienced it?

3. What changes did you make after the experience of the hurricane?


1.) No

2.) No

3.) N/A
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Quoting StormW:


I wish you the best of luck!



Thanks!

Its good to see there are actually few people on this blog like you still that correct me and actually know what they are talking about. I hate when people immaturely make rude replies to me and don't have a clue about meteorology lol.


I like learning new things, after all that's why I'm going to college now for meteorology. Correction is good, as long as it comes from people who know their stuff!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Someone who acts stupid, for lack of better word, on the blog.

I can name one in here at this time- help4u



Gotcha. I just wanted to stay clear troll classification. Seriously though it is amazing how active this season is compared to earlier this summer. Is this what you have been expecting?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Did anyone notice a little bit of spin? To the East of Bermuda, well Northwest of Igor?


there is a spin to the wsw of igor on the visible


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Storm or whoever:

Have a a few questions


1. Have you ever wished to experience a hurricane?

2. Did your opinion of hurricanes change after you experienced it?

3. What changes did you make after the experience of the hurricane?
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Quoting IKE:



SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN
THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR N WATERS LATE SUN
INTO MON. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF THROUGH WED.


we are supposed to have a "cold Front" move thru here, lake charles area on monday, should be a drop in humidity, and wondering if this will nudge the storm northwestward
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Newbiecaster here, but in the last frame or two of the 92L floater, it looks like some COC has formed. Dunno if it is mid or low level, but the structure of the storm seems to have radically improved.
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Did anyone notice a little bit of spin? To the East of Bermuda, well Northwest of Igor?
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It seems 92L is receiving water vapor from the south, though it has dry air in the north....

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see with lack of Epac and WPac activity and rapid tanking el-nino nothing changes the pattern it just keeps progressing and reamplifying in same places doesn't matter if neg NAO or not if there is no system there to begin with its a moot point
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Quoting KanKunKid:


I'm on board with you on this one MH09, It has lot of convection, but it hasn't formed a low in one place. I think if and when it does, it could really ramp up fast. But, since the models show it coming at me, it ruins the excitement.
I agree there, right now the circulation is in the mid-levels. Once it translates to the surface, a hurricane is very possible.
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92l mexico the rest fish.
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Quoting tropicaltank:
Maybe head NW and shoot the gap to GOM?

thanks you answered my question
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good.

Getting real tired of the trolls though.

How about you, Storm?


Hey I was wondering what is a troll for this blog?
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487. IKE
Quoting tropicaltank:
Maybe head NW and shoot the gap to GOM?



SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN
THROUGH WED. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR N WATERS LATE SUN
INTO MON. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF THROUGH WED.
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Feeding water vapor from the south. Dry air in the north..
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so your saying the stronger 92 is the further north??? Where is it going? I just tuned in
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Quoting IKE:
ECMWF on 92L...keeps it at 1006 mb's til hitting the Yucatan and then gets it down to 1003 mb's in the Bay of Campeche...heading for Mexico.
Maybe head NW and shoot the gap to GOM?
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Agree Ike, season is going to end fast after these next 3 fish storms and any storms that form in gulf or caribbeaen will head toward Mexico.High major impact season was a model fantasy!lol!
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Quoting Levi32:
Out 'til later.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, September 11th, with Video

Thanks Levi...
for your tropical tidbit. Sure didn't like the Japanese model you shared with us. Let's tell Japan to stick to making cars... not forecast models. 8^)
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Quoting StormW:


I imagine you're pretty pumped up about classes?




Yeah, not so pumped about what I'm doing now lol, more of what I'm looking forward to. I'm doing all the math and physics first before I do the actual MET classes, so there's nothing pretty or exciting about school yet.

Its just a good feeling to know what lies ahead, and what I can look forward to!
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Quoting IKE:
Day 8 ECMWF.

Bermuda ouch.
Good Afternoon Wunder bloggers.
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Alot of what looks ominous w/92l is in the mid levels,we'll see how it looks tomorrow morning looks like a classic llc goes north and any llc shoots out to the west...
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Latest ECMWF coming right for Bermuda
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Igor has gotten a lot smaller today... we could see this ramp up fairly fast today



Igor has not shrunk, he just sucked in some dry air, the circulation of Igor remains the same size as yesterday as you can view on visible imagery. All that happened was Igor lost some convective growth. But as time passes it will flare back up.



Large tropical cyclones can intensify rapidly too, Wilma was a very large tropical cyclone, and absolutely exploded.
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I do notice on Water Vapor that the moisture field around 92L is increasing in coverage significantly.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 290

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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