Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength
A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.
Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)
Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.
Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.
Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.
Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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First stupid question of the day.
Is there a greater amount of dry air around this year? (I don't remember this amount of talk about air in the past)
And is it a result of the record high temperatures we've been having?
Been wondering and have no clue who to ask.
they said Earl???
Good Morning StormW and everyone!
Here's an elaborate chart you may wanna bookmark: Link
The sat pics tell the story here. Should not be a big surprise. Igor likely (IMO) goes to cat 3 by end of day.
Category Two.
thank you!!!
Assuming the ADT isn't off its rocker, it would be a average of 5.0, so yea 90 knots.
and it still has 2 and a half hours to strengthen before the advisory comes out
Which is a Category 2 storm...
Ack! No, they said Igor. Sorry, coffee is 'perking' so I havent' had my first cup yet. Should have waited until I had some before posting.
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al122010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009121234
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
So TD 12 is born...
TD12 is born and Igor is a Category 2.
Finally!
There is no way he's missing this hole:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR AT 12/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.7N 44.4W.
IGOR IS MOVING WESTWARD 16 KT. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 990 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAIN-
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND
48W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 30S AND 47W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W.
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 16N69W...ABOUT 180 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N19W 8N20W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 13N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY TURN INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AT ANY TIME TODAY. ANYONE WHO IS
IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAIN-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 18W
AND 23W...RIGHT AT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
The paradox of such a large eye, and such a small storm gives the appearence that the eye is enormous.
I thought the stronger he is the further North he would go. I could be wrong though.
Unless that high over Texas is pushed to the east by that huge trof west of it, which the would force it to join with the high over the Atlantic. To me that is a scarier picture than a more comforting one.
Normally that is true, but the have to be massively powerful to bust a High pressure.
You're right. One degree is about 70 miles, so it looks like a normal 25-mile eye. Should have checked my facts.
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..............
I hadn't seen that message in a while, things must be "heating up".
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 17:41:34 N Lon : 44:38:51 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 957.2mb/107.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.0 6.0
Brings TD12 to 85mph.
except we in ponce pr finally getting some noteworthy rain since the first 5 minute rain/wind band of earl
That will be cool.
AL, 12, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 125N, 208W, 30, 1006, TD
TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE (AL122010) 20100912 1200 UTC
dont go dory on me
remember EARL
Typical, all I care about is my own little land statement. Bermuda, can get a hug whopping from this storm. You can go now.
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 0, 177N, 449W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 80, 80, 120,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 0, 177N, 449W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 0, 177N, 449W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 15, 15, 20,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 12, 179N, 475W, 92, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 132, 98, 89, 129,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 12, 179N, 475W, 92, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 57, 47, 35, 49,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 12, 179N, 475W, 92, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 34, 27, 24, 24,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 24, 181N, 499W, 100, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 147, 118, 104, 143,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 24, 181N, 499W, 100, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 67, 57, 45, 61,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 24, 181N, 499W, 100, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 39, 34, 37, 29,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 36, 184N, 520W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 164, 133, 123, 153,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 36, 184N, 520W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 77, 69, 59, 74,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 36, 184N, 520W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 42, 37, 43, 32,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 48, 190N, 537W, 118, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 176, 148, 137, 161,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 48, 190N, 537W, 118, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 87, 79, 69, 83,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 60, 197N, 553W, 126, 0, , 34, NEQ, 181, 158, 138, 166,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 60, 197N, 553W, 126, 0, , 50, NEQ, 96, 84, 74, 89,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 72, 207N, 567W, 129, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 184, 163, 138, 168,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 72, 207N, 567W, 129, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 101, 86, 77, 91,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 84, 218N, 581W, 130, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 96, 229N, 595W, 130, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 108, 239N, 610W, 130, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2010091212, 03, OFCI, 120, 248N, 626W, 130, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
I am hoping it stays west of Bermuda and east of the east coast. Otherwise Bermuda is in deep doo-doo.
Will apparently start at 35mph, 1006mb according to that.
Viewing: 2351 - 2401
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