Igor delivers punishing blow to Newfoundland; 95L growing more organized
Hurricane Igor delivered a punishing blow to Newfoundland Canada, which suffered one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor made it all the way to southeast Newfoundland yesterday as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland. Igor brought sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. The city recorded a remarkably low pressure of 958 mb, and picked up 3.99" of rain during Igor's passage. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland last night and this morning; significant wave heights reached 39 feet at the Newfoundland Grand Banks Buoy, and a storm surge of a meters (3.28 feet) hit the northeast shores of Newfoundland last night. Igor is now a large and powerful extratropical storm off Greenland and Labrador, and continues to generate hurricane force winds over water--winds at Angisoq, Greenland were sustained at 66 mph this morning.
It is not that unusual for hurricanes to penetrate as far north as Newfoundland's latitude; over 40 hurricanes have done so. The last time this occurred was in 2003, when Hurricane Fabian made it to latitude 48.7°N as a hurricane. The all time record is held by Hurricane Faith of 1966, which followed the Gulf Stream and maintained hurricane status all the way north to latitude 61.1°N, just off the coast of Norway.
Figure 1. Little Barsway bridge 10 km north of Grand Bank, Newfoundland, after floodwaters from Hurricane Igor swept it away. Image credit: George J.B. Rose.
Figure 2. Hurricane Igor at 11:47am EDT on Wednesday, September 21, as it pounded Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Figure 3. Video of impressive flooding on Newfoundland's Burin Peninsula, whose 20,000 residents were cut off from the rest of the province by flooded roads and closed bridges.
Dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L growing more organized
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela and the islands of Curacao, Aruba, and Bonaire this morning. A wind gust of 38 mph was recorded at Curacao last night. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorms have a pronounced rotation, with a center of circulation located just off the coast of South America. Thunderstorm activity is fairly limited, but is slowly increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the rest of the week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 70%. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon.
The wave should continue moving westward near 15 mph through Friday afternoon, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on today and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday, and the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Honduras, and Nicaragua on Friday. When 95L moves over or just north of Honduras on Saturday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western Caribbean and cause 95L to turn more to the northwest and slow. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew over the Western Caribbean early next week. Even if the center stays over land, the circulation of the storm may be capable of generating dangerous flooding rains over Central America. Steering currents will be weak over the Western Caribbean through the middle of next week, and 95L may spend up to a week over the Western Caribbean, drenching the region with very heavy rains. Another possibility is that the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be strong enough to draw 95L northwards across western Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico 6 - 8 days from now. This solution is not being emphasized as much in today's model's runs as yesterday's, and the danger to the U.S. is uncertain at this point.
Figure 4. Morning satellite image of 95L.
Tropical Storm Lisa
Tropical Storm Lisa continues to churn the waters of the far Eastern Atlantic. By Friday night, upper level winds out of the west are expected to increase, bringing high wind shear of 20 - 45 knots over Lisa. The high shear may be capable of destroying the storm by early next week. It appears unlikely that Lisa will affect any land areas.
Georgette headed towards Arizona
Tropical Depression Georgette hit the tip of Baja California as a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds yesterday, but dropped little rain. Georgette is in the Gulf of California, headed northwards, and could bring heavy rains to Arizona on Thursday.
Hurricane Karl's aftermath
Mexico continues to clean up from Hurricane Karl, which made landfall last Friday in Veracruz state as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl dumped approximately one foot of rain in the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, which cause some rivers to rise to unprecedented levels. The death toll from Karl's flooding and mudslides stands at 16, and ten of thousands remain in shelters after being displaced from their flooded homes. Insurance company AIR Worldwide is estimating insured losses at $100 - $200 million. Actual damage is estimated to be as much as $3.9 billion, since insurance take-up rates are low in Mexico. Karl is the second billion-dollar hurricane to hit Mexico this year; in June, Hurricane Alex hit just south of the Texas border as a Category 2 storm, killing 51 and doing $1.9 billion in damage.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model predicts a new tropical depression might develop in the Central Caribbean about seven days from now. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
My next post will be Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
A buoy is left stranded on the beach from the storm waves of Hurricane Igor...
Reader Comments
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I know, just thought it was interesting. I feel a TD will form tomorrow.
Lisa - is still following the NU Blog NFI Model
95L - The models are showing a decrease in intensity for a C America Hit... but also showing it as a Cat 3 Shooting the Cuba/Cancun gap.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Though it will be slow to develop into something bigger, so much energy, needs to consolidate.
Amazing comparison, lol
I have the real answer:
THERE BOTH TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
If the model consensus on the trough not cutting-off is correct then Matthew will head toward south of central Florida and up(or off0 the East coast. Attaching itself unto the cold front and thus eventually becoming a nor'easter.
While that's happening, the front will sweep through Florida and stall from the kirks and cacos islands, through Cuba, to the Yucatan.
A low pressure then will acquire subtropical characteristics and become Nicole. It'll behave much like Andrea did in 2007.
But if the Outlier GFS is right(concerning the trough cutting-off) your guess is as good as mine.
wow
do you know what that means ??
My first post today.
95L remains disorganized and is too close to land to develop quickly. Last night I said it would likely be 24 to 36 hours before we would see any real organization and that window takes us to about 8 tomorrow morning. I still think that is valid based upon what I see.
The 850 vort has not consolidated and there are no WNW or NW winds out of Aruba which is close by and due West of the system.
It is now near 70 W. Near or just beyond 75 W is where I think it will start coming together once it clears the SA coastline. Surface convergence is markedly improved since last night so the signs are all there that this is likely to become a TD in the near future.
Based on the current steering, not too surprised, there appears to be some easterly shear preventing a quicker organization:
Hot of the press... we just had a dropsonde from the PREDICT-GV flight with southwesterly winds at 5-10 knots at 850 mb near Aruba, so it appears that there is a weak circulation forming N of the Gulf of Venezuela. We lost the drop data below that level, but the SW winds appear to extend through low-levels.
It's going to be a long two weeks here. Imagine the disappointment if this thing dies.
5000 feet is a long way from the surface. Aruba has SE surface winds.
shhhhh...we have managed to hide for awhile and hopefully the shield is still up!!!!
It's happened to me too! However, I found a simple way to correct that from happening, at least most of the time. I play the video in 360 dpi and then if it does happen, I take my mouse and pull the round time counter button closer to the beginning of the video and this solved the issue for me. I hope my explanation makes since.
My Dad and I stood outside in the eye of Donna, 1960, which passed through west Bradenton, FL. Eerily, there was not a sound until the south eye wall approached.
He failed to mentions that the ants are swarming everywhere too...seriously
The wind just switched to West at Aruba
Updated: 9 min 41 sec ago
86 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.80 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 95 °F
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
For those of you making a Master or PHD in meteorology, here is a good investigation theme for a thesis.
Is the Sahara desert growing or shrinking? Either case, what will be (or has been) it’s effect on the ITCZ and the Atlantic weather.?
• It is reported that in the region south of the Sahara Desert, 1.5 million hectares of land turn is becoming barren every year, with the Sahara expanding in a southward direction.
• The southern boundary of the Sahara, as measured by rainfall, was observed to both advance and retreat between 1980 and 1990. As a result of drought in the Sahel, the southern boundary moved south 130 kilometers (81 mi) overall during that period.[19] Deforestation has also caused the Sahara to advance south in recent years[citation needed], as trees and bushes continue to be used as fuel source.
• Recent signals indicate that the Sahara and surrounding regions are greening due to increased rainfall. Satellites show extensive regreening of the Sahel between 1982 and 2002, and in both Eastern and Western Sahara a more than 20 year long trend of increased grazing areas and flourishing trees and shrubs has been observed by climate scientist Stefan Kröpelin.[20]
• The Sahara is expanding southwards into an area called the Sahel. The process is called desertification or desertization. The following are quotes from the Encyclopedia Britannica Online (April 22, 2005): "Public awareness of desertification increased during the severe drought in the Sahel in Africa (1968-73), a drought that accelerated the southward movement of the Sahara desert."
A thesis statement declares what you believe and what you intend to prove. A good thesis statement makes the difference between a thoughtful research project and a simple retelling of facts.
throughout.
The last GGEM run actualy had it faking a glance at the FL Panhandle, then drifting NW'rd towards MS/NOLA as the trough lifts out and the steering currents weaken. I'm wondering if this run would actually goes even further west towards Grand Isle/Morgan City or even Intercoastal City/Lafayette, or joins the rest of the consensus further east towards Florida or simply kills this thing in the Yucatan. I wouldn't bet on the former due to the strong front going through next week, but you never know with these systems.
Anthony
Looks like a center circulation could be forming N of Venezuela
Be safe.
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