TD 16 dumping torrential rains; extreme rainfall event for North Carolina
Tropical Depression Sixteen is dumping torrential rains on Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the western Bahamas as it tracks steadily north-northeastwards up the U.S. East Coast. Some rain amounts from TD 16 since yesterday morning include 8.13" at Irwindale in western Jamaica, 4.75" in George Town, Cayman Islands , and 4.34" in Jucaro, Cuba. In South Florida, radar-estimated rainfall amounts of 6 - 8" are common across the Middle and Upper Keys and between West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce (Figure 1.)
Surface observations don't show any winds in excess of 25 mph near the center of TD 16, and the strongest winds associated with the storm continue to be at at Buoy 42057 400 miles to the south of Cuba, where winds were 34 mph, gusting to 43 mph, at 9:24am EDT this morning. Radar loops out of Pico San Juan, Cuba shows a region of very heavy rainfall crossing Central Cuba, and these heavy rains will move through Southeast Florida and the Western Bahamas throughout the day. Satellite imagery continues to show that TD 16's heavy thunderstorms are poorly organized, but cover a very large region of the Caribbean, western Bahamas, and eastern Florida. The thunderstorms are slowly growing more organized, and TD 16 will probably be Tropical Storm Nicole later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is currently approaching TD 16, and will give us a better idea on its status shortly.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for South Florida. TD 16 has brought 6 - 8 inches of rain to the Middle and Upper Keys and between West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce.
Forecast today for TD 16
Because TD 16 is so large and poorly organized, it will take it considerably more time than is usual for a tropical depression to intensify. The wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and the waters underneath are very warm, but the storm also has to contend with passage of the center over Cuba and South Florida. All these factors considered, the strongest TD 16 is likely to get today is a 45-mph tropical storm. By tonight, wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, limiting the opportunity for further intensification. Winds in South Florida should remain below 35 mph for the duration of the storm, but may reach 40 - 45 mph in the western Bahamas and in Central and Western Cuba. Since TD 16 is a large storm, heavy rain will continue to be a threat for Cuba, South Florida, and the western Bahamas through Thursday morning.
Extreme rainfall for eastern North Carolina
In North Carolina, the arrival of TD 16 is shaping up to give coastal regions one of their top five rainiest weeks in history. Tropical moisture feeding into the region ahead of TD 16 has already brought 12.88" of rain to Wilmington, NC Sunday through Tuesday, and an additional 2.37" has already fallen there so far this morning. This gives Wilmington a 4-day total of 15.25", which is the second highest 4-day total in history, behind the 19.06" that fell in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd. A non-tropical low pressure system is predicted to develop off the Florida East Coast this afternoon and move past North Carolina late tonight, giving North and South Carolina an additional helping of heavy rain before the main rains from TD 16 arrive Thursday morning and afternoon. By the time the rains from TD 16 finally clear the area Thursday night, an additional 5 - 10 inches will have fallen, and Wilmington will probably be looking at a 4-day rainfall total of 20 - 25 inches. Severe and damaging flooding is likely. Fortunately, eastern North Carolina was under moderate drought conditions prior to this week's rainfall onslaught, so the flooding damage will not be as great as the billions of dollars of damage wrought by Hurricane Floyd.
Figure 2. Forecast precipitation for the 5-day period from 8am today through 8am EDT Monday, October 4, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
Mexican landslide not as deadly as first reported
Early reports that hundreds of Mexicans may have perished in a landslide generated from the rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew turned out to be wrong. The latest news from Mexico's mountainous Oaxaca state, where the landslide occurred, is that no one has died, though eleven people are missing. Matthew hit Belize on Saturday as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and dissipated Sunday over southern Mexico. However, Matthew's remains stalled out over the region of Mexico that had already received torrential rains from Hurricane Karl, which hit on September 18. Satellite estimates of Matthew's rains over southern Mexico show that a foot of rain may have fallen in the landslide area. Matthew's remains still linger over the region, but are probably only capable of bringing one inch of additional rain through Thursday.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is generating a modest amount of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has some dry air to the northwest of it that is interfering with development. None of the models develop this disturbance, and NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday.
Disturbed weather will continue in the Western Caribbean for at least the next ten days, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict that the region could spawn a tropical depression 6 - 7 days from now. However, the models are being less aggressive than earlier this week in suggesting such a development. The NOGAPS model is also suggesting that two tropical waves between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa could develop, 6 - 8 days from now, as they pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The first of those waves is currently located about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands.
Next update
I'll have updates as the situation with TD 16 requires.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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That's good news.
I wonder if there's a connection between JB and other hype artists closing their mouths.
Less hot air blowing around.
I remember that too with respect to the models...especially the long-range GFS for intensity on tropical systems. You can not trust the GFS long-range on intensity for tropical systems.
from its previous heading of dueEast
TS.Nicole's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~20.7mph(~33.3km/h)
28Sep 06pmGMT - - 20.9n82.5w - - 35mph(~56.4km/h) - - 1000mb - - #1A
28Sep 09pmGMT - - 21.5n82.4w - - 35mph(~56.4km/h) - - - 999mb - - #2
29Sep 12amGMT - - 21.4n82.0w - - 35mph(~56.4km/h) - - - 997mb - - #2A
29Sep 03amGMT - - 21.9n81.9w - - 35mph(~56.4km/h) - - - 997mb - - NHC.Adv.#3
29Sep 06amGMT - - 22.7n81.6w - - 35mph(~56.4km/h) - - - 997mb - - #3A
29Sep 09amGMT - - 23.3n81.4w - - 35mph(~56.4km/h) - - - 997mb - - #4
29Sep 12pmGMT - - 22.6n81.4w - - 35mph(~56.4km/h) - - - 996mb - - #4A
TD.16 becomes TS.Nicole
29Sep 03pmGMT - - 22.6n80.6w - - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - - - 996mb - - #5
29Sep 06pmGMT - - 23.5n80.6w - - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - - - 996mb - - #5A
Copy &paste 20.9n82.5w, 21.5n82.4w, 21.4n82.0w, 21.9n81.9w, 22.7n81.6w-23.3n81.4w, 23.3n81.4w-22.6n81.4w, 22.6n81.4w-22.6n80.6w, 22.6n80.6w-23.5n80.6w, cun, mia, lgi into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.
... or track, or genesis...
Matthew killed more people than Felix did in Mexico, Felix was retired for the death toll he caused. It is probable to assume Matthew will become the first TS retired since Allison. Karl caused ~4 billion in damages, killed up to 22 people. Karl will also probably be retired. Alex caused ~2 billion do Mexico/Texas, there is a chance it will be retired as well.
This season is living up to CSU and TSR's predictions in both June and August. While it did not live up to what some predicted, it has still been an amazing season so far.
Conditions will become LESS FAVOURABLE for development over the next few days.
Still, a LOT of rain expected to cross the Islands by Friday/Saturday.
I am wondering if it will pass north of me, and the conditions here stay Hot, Moist, but no rain.
Looking for the onset of the 'Petit Careme' any time now. That's a 2 week period in the season when rains are scarce. Generally occurs after a full moon.
I agree on not trusting the GFS on track or intensity
but for genesis it has been very good in he long range
Will be chugging the ol Angostura tomorrow b/4 & after surf. -Made in TRINidad, courtesy of your nativeland .~ Bacteria level's go UP after after heavy downpours(drainage from creeks, streams, drainage --the ango seems to work like a charm -- It's my protection : ) I have a bottle by the hearth - LOL - reminds me of you all the time....in a good way bawhahaaa
Today
Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Breezy. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Here's their radar....
afternoon all
OUCH!!
(1:00 pm EDT)
1700 GMT on 09/29/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 220 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 24.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.46 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.3 °F
The forecast for Eastern NC for today/tomorrow has always been based on Extra-Tropical remains of TD16/Nicole merging with a developing low along the stationary frontal boundary, then riding north to landfall somewhere in the vicinity of Wilmington.
It was forecast and expected to produce significant rainfall on top of the huge totals we've racked up this week (this forecast remains) with winds increasing to 20-30mph later tonight with some 40+ gusts along the coast.
So my question is, once Nicole got named with no real impact to the previous forecast, why did the wind-related advisories for coastal NC get dropped? Was that purely a result of the eastward shift in the forecast track, even though everything still shows the same extra-tropical event coming ashore around Wilmington?
Has it? How many storms has it spun up in the past few weeks? And how many have we seen?
Yes, it nailed Matthew. What about the other eleven-teen storms that never happened?
Until we figure out a way to know when the models are on crack, and when they are serious, they are simply not reliable for long-term.
Wasn't it last week that all the 'reliable' models agreed that by this past weekend Florida would be hit by 1 or more storms? Did I miss those?
Sorry, but I fail to understand how accurately predicting 26 of the last 2 storms is "good".
I guess it's all in the perspective. If the strikeout king happens to knock one over the left field fence to win a game, he's a hero. But he isn't gonna get into the Hall of Fame for it.
Probably the rest of the day...not sure where you are down here, but I work in Deerfield Beach and it's just been light and steady with occasional moderate rain. Beats having a hurricane here though!
Every one of them.
Lisa, Matthew, and Nicole where the only storms the GFS has shown the last few days. It also had strong model support from the other models.
There is growing model support for another Caribbean storm. Now-- did the GFS nail intensity? Kinda.. it only shows pressures remember? Nicole's a 996 mb 40 mph TS. No one expected that. Lisa? No one could have predicted it would become a hurricane. Matthew? Showed a low, that is all.
By my understanding, the NHC isn't responsible for tracking Nicole once she undergoes the transition to post-tropical. It is up to the local NWS office to put out any advisories/watches/warnings. In fact, and I may be wrong on this, the NHC watches/warnings only affect the immediate coastlines they are issued for, and the local NWS office issues all the inland tropical advisories.
Now, now - play nice. But you are probably correct.
In mho (which is not much) I agree with most of what you say, however the thing that has been good with GFS is when most of the other models call for development of a storm if the GFS does not most likely the storm does not appear. That is the one thing I have noticed this year about the GFS.
The previous advisories and watches were NWS-issued. That's part of what confused me when they got dropped. I understand the NHC watches being removed due to the Extra-Tropical status, but the NWS response "in-kind" was strange to me
It hasn't stopped raining here in Jacksonville, NC all day.
Please note that the local NWS office has changed the high wind watch to a wind advisory.
Link
I can't explain that, because the NHC clearly states the continued wind/rain threat as Nicole transitions or is absorbed by the low creating the rain along the frontal boundary...
They might go back up once the local NWS offices have a bead on where the remnants are going to go.
yea im near Topsail Beach and it has been a steady rain if not a torrential down poor all day
Currently it's dry and overcast where I am, with variable winds, most often from the SE.
I got out early enough to avoid the first round of stormy weather this morning. From about 8:30 to about 11 a.m. we had some pretty sqaully weather, with lots of blowing rain and some heavy downpours. There's already a lot of localized flooding as a result.
I'm going now to catch up on the happenings so far. I'm assuming we now have Hurricane Nicole, because they DID cancel school today.... lol
The part you bolded was where I referred to the past few week. Then you go on to refer to a matter of a few days. Is that what "long range" means?
Worship the models all you wish - But unless you are employing extremely selective memory, there were far more storms shown by the long range models than were ever in existence.
When you spit out storms like baseballs from a pitching machine, you're bound to get it right at some point.
So what defines accuracy?
I personally think that this year, with unprecedented conditions, the models are simply working outside their design parameters, causing an inordinate number of false genesis scenarios. There's just so much potential that they quite simply don't quite know what to do with it.
Needed to be said, and you did it well and with respect
Started raining off and on here in Wilmington around 3:00am. It has been raining steadily since at least 9am with no end in sight. The yard is already nothing but standing water.
Starting to feel like that old Jars of Clay song.
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