Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia
Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.
Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.
Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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And you fell for it, thats a troll impersonating Jeff
Why do you have to tell us.....just do it
This is a troll...easy...wait for it...
I said Major, not named storm. There is a difference, you do realize that, right?
Season still has a way to go...
How many years without a major in that timeframe? Which is what I said, no more MAJORS this year.
But what do I know. We will soon find out. So let's enjoy the break for the time being.
Not impossible to get a major, but what you say makes sense since it is more unlikely than likely.
Which is CLEARLY your opinion! We may in fact see a major.
And then there are people like me who are getting eaten alive by college academics and can hardly find time to blog at this time of year. Now, if you excuse me, I have some differential equations to be doing... unless someone else want to volunteer to do them for me?
Hurricane Alice, 1954-1955
explain the means of troll... because from the way this is shaping up, first, the forward motion of the storm almost 10 mph to the northwest into the very large trough not far from the storm also competed with the size if the storm, which isnt very large, and also the atmosphere that it is spinning in. That atmosphere does not have nearly the energy that the carrubean has, and thus even if it was a troll, it stands a much better chance by being sheared apart than developing into this monster. You know, i am not looking to purposely burst bubbles on here, but just because nicole was a sleeping giant does not mean that this will be the case,and that this will keep happening until nov.30th or later., i mean they formed in different ways and their tracks will be much different. if you want to see your troll than like Jeff Masters says, wait 5-7 days out in the southern carribean, cause the south west atlantic has had it from the recent hurricanes like Earl that leeched most energy that was there.
"
As StormJunkie and portlight assessed the situation in N. Carolina,,,we came across this Older woman who can use a hand from us.
So I ask everyone to consider helping us help her.
We can change Lives for the better,,and thats what were gonna do here.
Cuz we can.
Dayle White is a widow from Jacksonville, NC, who lost about 60% of her belongings and her landlord is unsure when or if she'll be able to return to her home. Her renters' insurance (Nationwide) is denying her coverage due to lack of flood coverage. She is on a limited fixed income. She is in need of a place to live...as well as clothes and furniture. We want to help her get another apartment, as well as some clothing and furniture. She is particularly upset over the loss of her recliner chair, which was destroyed.
Please help as you can. And know that Ms. White will be grateful.
We are identifying others in need and will post their stories as things come into focus.
Portlight 7:24 PM CDT on October 05, 2010
Y'all rock!! We have enough in hand and pledged to get her some clothes and replace her recliner...and a good start on a security deposit on a place...
portlight.org
May not. His opinion is just as acurate as your opinion @ this point.
Your're too young to remember that!
I'm not :P
Today I find myself more confused by the appearance of a shopping cart?
dyslexic
GOES Satellite August / September 2010
This GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation is a long loop that shows all of August and September 2010. This video features a slew of tropical storms and hurricanes, none of which made official landfall along the U.S. coastline. How many can you correctly identify? Set to the music of Gustav Holtz's symphony - "The Planets."
Afternoon John,
I posted a new blog concerning my prediction on the rest of the continued active Tropics.
Good afternoon to you too Allan! Nice update! Yes Wilma was a BAD storm! It seems that back when she was moving away from Mexico and toward Florida nobody seemed to think she'd re-develop into a major. I don't know how they didn't expect it...SE FL was caught completely unprepared for Cat 3/4 winds and alot of the major damage occurred down there. I don't know how they didn't take it more seriously...
I’m fairly confident Floodman was referring to this kind of a troll “In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking other users into a desired emotional response[1] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.
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