Subtropical Depression 17 forms; monsoon rains kill over 100 in Asia
Subtropical Depression Seventeen formed this morning, approximately 200 miles north of Puerto Rico. The storm is not a threat to bring high winds to any land areas, but will produce heavy rains over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and perhaps the eastern Dominican Republic. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Figure 1) shows rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches have fallen near St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and the St. Thomas Airport officially measured 6.61" yesterday--its 5th wettest day in history. St. Thomas has picked up an additional 1.48" today as of 9am AST. Not surprisingly, Flash Flood Warnings are posted for the island. Weather radar out of Puerto Rico shows that a large area of heavy rain will continue to affect the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico this morning. Martinique radar shows somewhat less activity over the Lesser Antilles.
Satellite loops show STD 17 has a broad, somewhat ill-defined center of circulation, with the heaviest thunderstorms 50 or so miles from the center. This is characteristic of a subtropical storm, which is a hybrid between a tropical storm and an extratropical storm. An upper level low pressure system to the west of STD 17 has pumped cold, dry air aloft into STD 17, keeping it from being fully tropical. As the trough gradually weakens today and Thursday, STD 17 should become fully tropical and intensify into Tropical Storm Otto. Steering currents favor Otto being lifted northwards and then northeastwards out to sea by Friday.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from Subtropical Depression Seventeen over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands shows that rains in excess of eight inches (white colors) have fallen near St. Thomas.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the models indicate the possibility that a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression forming in the Southern Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua, 5 - 7 days from now.
Monsoon flooding kills 83 in Indonesia, 28 in Vietnam
Heavy monsoon rains triggered flash flooding in a remote section of Indonesia this week that killed at least 83 people. Another 68 people are missing, and 3,000 homeless. In Vietnam, heavy rains of up to 51" (1300 mm) have fallen since Friday, resulting in river flooding that killed at least 28 people. Over 34,000 people are homeless from the floods, which hit five provinces from Nghe An to Thua Thien-Hue, a swath of territory starting some 300 km (180 miles) south of Hanoi and stretching south. Heavy monsoon rains also hit nearby Hainen Island in China, forcing the evacuation of 64,000 people.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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AL, 17, 2010100618, , BEST, 0, 230N, 683W, 35, 998, SS
go back a few posts.
I was just trying to say that the statement oracle28 declared was not a fact yet, but I got bashed (again). So now I'm reporting those who wishcast/downcast without evidence. There was really nothing to "fight" about. It is Oracle28's OPINION that there will be no major Hurricane. It is my OPINION that we will have one more major in the Western Caribbean. There is no right or wrong on this yet until of if it occurs.
Get out of my head!
LOL
I think it should have been classified a STS at 11 a.m. but 5 p.m. sounds good. It's looking even better with convection trying to wrap around the circulation.
Sorry, man...I keep getting pulled away...yeah, pretty muhc the same here
How's it going today? Is your back still getting better?
Yep...pretty much levelled off to almost as good as before all this back crap started...and you? How are you doing?
Ohhhh I would not want to be there.. all the spinning disco lights would give me a headache.
The logic behind that one is well non-existent lol
Do you think we will have after Otto/17
(A) 1 Storm
(B) 0 Storms
(C) 2 Storms
(D) 3 or more Storms
for during the remainder of the season...
Some of the complacency was likely due to Wilma being a backside hit (from the SE Florida POV). Even though everyone *should* know that crossing the Everglades isn't going to hurt a storm and may in fact even help it intensify, the fact is people don't know that. They just saw the track aiming at Port Charlotte and thought that was nowhere near them - true enough, until it crosses the peninsula and gets to you.
Also, Wilma eventually struck a little south of the skinny black line forecast. Obviously no one should have depended on that as gospel, but again, what people do and what they should do are often very divergent.
But I think a big factor was simply unpreparedness due to unfamiliarity. It seems amazing after 2004 and early 2005 (even post-Andrew at all) that anyone in SE FL could have thought it couldn't happen to them, but believe me that was the dominant feeling in Broward County pre-Wilma.
I think Dade, which aborbed far less damage from Wilma as it was projected to, was nevertheless much better prepared. No doubt the very recent experience of Katrina and the 13 year-old but still too-well-remembered experience of Andrew played a key part in that. The only people in Dade who were caught with their pants down were FP&L. Too busy counting their money I guess.
But Broward had been leading a charmed life since 1950, the last time they really took a hit. 2004 didn't really affect them; nor did Katrina. Andrew of course had been a non-event. I was amazed by the number of Browardites I knew who all week (because remember we got a full week's warning on what would pretty much become Wilma's exact track) simply didn't prepare. Not couldn't, but didn't. Afterward, the more honest of them admitted they had simply blown it.
Obviously there were still tens of thousdands of Browardites who weren't caught napping. But the dominant feeling among the county's residents were that hurricanes were something that happened to south Dade, not up here.
Re intensification, I think a lot of what happened with Wilma was simply a function of her being steered along the edge of a powerful cold front (especially strong by south Florida in October standards). Since her forward motion was an incredible 25 mph, that speed was added to her rotational velocity of ~90 mph to produce a max wind velocity of 110 mph along her SSE edge. No one had really anticiapted quite such a large forward motion, thus the predictions for a Cat 2.
There are no "disco" lights in my head...now, gels and psychodelia, yes...
D; 3 more storms
2 this month, 1 next month
D. Everyone seems to forget we are in La Nina mode, not El Nino. We will have some Subtropical storms in the Open Atlantic and probably 2 more storms in the Western Caribbean if conditions apply. This is reasonable based on history of past La Nina seasons.
Agreed. Next major will be in 2011
Its the mushrooms man :)
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