Tropical Storm Paula forming
Data from the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and satellite imagery reveal that the strong tropical disturbance centered near the coast of Honduras just west of the border with Nicaragua is now Tropical Storm Paula. Paula is the 16th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. The Hurricane Hunters reported a central pressure of 1001 mb and top surface winds of 45 mph in their 2:11pm EDT center fix. Satellite imagery shows a well-organized system with a modest but increasing amount of intense thunderstorm activity, and some respectable low-level spiral bands. Water vapor satellite loops reveal that Paula has been able to substantially moisten the atmosphere in the Western Caribbean over the past day, and dry air will be less of an impediment to development than it was yesterday. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots. Puerto Lempira, Honduras reported sustained winds of 35 mph at 12pm CST this afternoon, with 3.31" of rain from the storm thus far.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Paula.
Forecast for Paula
Proximity to land is hampering Paula's ability to intensify some, and the storm's northwest movement of 10 mph will take the center far enough away from the coast of Honduras this evening to substantially increase the storm's ability to intensify. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay mostly in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Tuesday afternoon, then increase to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, for the remainder of the week. The computer models predict Paula will continue on a northwest motion then turn more north-northwest on Wednesday, which would take the storm close to landfall on the coast of Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. At that time, Paula may be approaching Category 2 hurricane status, due to the moderate wind shear, SSTs of 29°C, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. On Wednesday, there is considerable doubt about the future path of Paula. Steering currents in the Western Caribbean will collapse, potentially allowing Paula to wander in the region for many days, as predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. It is also possible that Paula will push far enough inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that the storm will dissipate, as predicted by the NOGAPS model. Finally, if Paula grows strong quickly, and pushes far enough north, it could get caught up a strong trough of low pressure predicted to traverse the U.S. this week (and spawn a Nor'easter for New England this weekend.) In this scenario, offered by the GFDL model, Paula would make a sharp turn to the east-northeast, hit western Cuba, bring tropical storm-force finds to the Florida Keys on Thursday, then move into the Bahama Islands by Friday or Saturday. It is too early to say which of these scenarios is the most likely, as the storm is just forming and the models do not have a good handle on it yet. Regardless, northern Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will receive dangerous flooding rains from Paula today through Wednesday.
The U.S. drought in major hurricanes
On average, the U.S. gets hit by one major Category 3 or stronger hurricane every two years. This year, the team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University called for a 76% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in their June forecast. However, the odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. are rapidly dwindling. Over the past fifty years, the only Category 3 or stronger hurricanes to hit the U.S. after October 1 were Hilda (October 3, 1964), Opal (October 4, 1995), and Wilma (October 24, 2005). Hilda and Opal were already named tropical storms as of October 1, so Wilma was the major hurricane that formed after October 1 to hit the U.S. during this period. Although we still need to keep a wary eye on developments in the Western Caribbean over the next few weeks, the odds are that 2010 will join 1951 as the only year to have five or more major hurricanes in the Atlantic, but no landfalling major hurricane in the U.S. (1958 is also listed as such a year, but a re-analysis effort is showing that Hurricane Helene hit North Carolina as a major hurricane that year.) If 2010 finishes without a major hurricane hitting the U.S., this will mark the first such five-year stretch since 1910 - 1914.
Figure 2. Hurricane Wilma over South Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on October 24, 2005. Wilma was the last major hurricane to hit the U.S.
However, some caveats are required. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike, which both made landfall in the U.S. in 2008 as top-end Category 2 storms with 110 mph winds, would probably have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes had they occurred early in the 20th century. This is because in past, when there were not any reliable wind measurements in the vicinity of a landfalling hurricane (a common occurrence), the storm was classified based on its central pressure. Gustav and Ike had central pressures of 957 and 952 mb, respectively, which would have qualified them as Category 3 storms. Similarly, Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and Hurricane Isabel of 2002 (though not within the last five years) were strong Category 2 hurricanes with 105 mph winds at landfall, but had central pressures of 956 mb. These hurricanes would also have been classified as Category 3 hurricanes in the past. There are many storms from the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s that will likely change their landfall classification once re-analysis efforts are completed over the next few years. One case is Hurricane Ten of 1949, which is listed as having winds of a low-end Category 4 hurricane (135 mph) just before landfall, which would make it the only October major hurricane to make landfall in Texas. However, the hurricane is only given a Category 2 strength at landfall, based on its central pressure.
Prior to 1960, there were five major hurricanes that hit Florida in October. Most notable of these is Hurricane King, which hit downtown Miami on October 18, 1950, as a Category 3 hurricane.
Record quiet hurricane and typhoon seasons in the Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, it is currently the quietest typhoon season on record, according to statistics computed by forecaster Paul Stanko at the NWS office on Guam. On average, by this point in the season, there should have been 21 named storms, 13 typhoons, and 3 supertyphoons (storms with 150+ mph winds.) So far in 2010, there have been just 12 named storms, 6 typhoons, and no supertyphoons. The record lows for the Western Pacific (since 1951) are 18 named storms, 9 typhoons, and 0 supertyphoons. We have a good chance of beating or tying all of those records. Over the in the Eastern Pacific, it has also been a near record-quiet season. On average, the Eastern Pacific has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes in a season. So far in 2010, there have been 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The record quietest season since 1966 was the year 1977, when the Eastern Pacific had 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 0 intense hurricanes. Climatology suggests that on average, we can expect just one more named storm in the Eastern Pacific this late in the season, so there is a good chance that the 2010 season is over. La Niña is largely responsible to the quiet Eastern Pacific hurricane season, due in part to the cool sea surface temperatures it brought. La Niña also commonly causes less active Western Pacific typhoon seasons, since the warmest waters there shift closer to Asia, reducing the amount of time storms have over water.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning at the latest.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Ummmm....huh?
Makes you think of all those weird drawn out tropical storms in years past that may well have been hurricanes at some point, though for a brief period of time.
TUESDAY 7 AM
PAULA COMES TO CROSSROADS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
Paula has a window of about 24 hours to feedback and tighten up into a balled fist of fury that could take it as high as a cat 3, but after that the storm will encounter enough shear to weaken it. The long shot that GFDL shows cant be written off, the rapid acceleration late tonight and tomorrow northeast and the threat to the Fla keys. That track would keep it in a position in relation to the jet so it would interact in a way that would allow it to keep its intensity. Its interesting, for the approach of the trough is like a blanket to a fire. At first, the upper jet considerations can lead to enhanced large scale upward motion which is why the storm can suddenly deepen. If it then proceeds to take off and keep its distance in a way where it can stay in the upward motion pattern, then it will continue strong or even develop more. Classic examples of Wilma, after weakening to a cat 2, taking off to the northeast but keeping here intensity at that level when she struck south Florida. A lesser known example, Gerda in 1969, accelerated nne in advance of a trough and went from a cat one to a cat 3 as it passed 100 miles southeast of Nantucket.
Speaking of Nantucket, the weekend storm is more progressive and further east so while snow showers can develop over the northern high ground its in and out enough so we dont have to worry about Tom Brady's hair getting mussed up by snow a second year in a row in October.
The model means still focus on the storm threat in the gulf next week and remember, the idea here from 10 days ago was Otto and out, Paula in the western Caribbean this week and then the gulf next week. Whether that is whats left of Paula, or another system, we will have to watch for a potential more westward development next week and the threat of it phasing a la nicole for some grand pre halloween event over the east..complete with snow flurries an squalls behind it and the threat of tropical entrainment in front of it. That it would come before halloween may seem weird, but what is stranger to me is the rampaging tstorms last night in the northeast with the front..something that may not be seen this late in the year again in your lifetime, since I had never seen it before in mine. One cannon shot after another, even one in the wee hours back here. Wow!
Notes and asides. Imagine if you were getting married 56 years ago today in Rhode Island and you were a weather fanatic. A big heat wave raging, a monster hurricane lurking in the Caribbean. How could you keep your focus. Well its my mom and dads anniversary today and it was the hottest Columbus Day ever recorded, until the 1990 Columbus day heat wave. In any case, I would have been going out of my mind wondering what was going on. My wife and I got married during the non season of 1992, so that was not a problem.
Even with their wedding day, I couldnt measure up to my mom and dad!
ciao for now ****
HurricanePaula's heading remained*steady at (9.2degrees north of) NorthWest
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions held at ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A
H.Paula
12Oct 09amGMT - - 17.6n85.2w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3
Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w, 15.7n83.7w, 16.0n84.0w-16.4n84.3w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, 16.8n84.6w-17.2n84.9w, 17.2n84.9w-17.6n85.2w, pnd, cun, mzo, 17.6n85.2w-20.38n87.33w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~18hours from now to Akumal,QuintanaRoo,Mexico
* The 0.1degree difference is well within rounding error.
^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Location: 17.6°N 85.2°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
...........................
...PAULA HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 12
Location: 18.1°N 85.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST. PAULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAULA WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. PAULA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60
MILES...95 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
.........................................
This buoy is about 100 miles NNE of Paula....
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 92 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 92.3 °F
I haven't seen a post from him in awhile. Hope he is ok.
(NOT COMPARING Paula to Andrew, just making a comment that small can do a lot of damage too)
from its previous heading of (9.2degrees north of) NorthWest
H.Paula's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~12.3mph(~19.8km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TropicalDepression18
11Oct 12pmGMT - - 15.2n83.2w - - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - - 1007mb -- NHC-ATCF
TS.Paula
11Oct 06pmGMT - - 15.7n83.7w - - 45knots(~83.3km/h) - - 1001mb -- NHC-ATCF
11Oct 09pmGMT - - 16.0n84.0w - - 60mph(~96.6km/h) - . - 1000mb -- NHC.Adv.#1
12Oct 12amGMT - - 16.4n84.3w - - 65mph(~104.6km/h) - - - 998mb -- NHC.Adv.#1A
12Oct 03amGMT - - 16.8n84.6w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#2
12Oct 06amGMT - - 17.2n84.9w - - 70mph(~112.7km/h) - - - 991mb -- NHC.Adv.#2A
H.Paula
12Oct 09amGMT - - 17.6n85.2w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3
12Oct 12pmGMT - - 18.1n85.4w - - 75mph(~120.7km/h) - - - 992mb -- NHC.Adv.#3
Copy &paste 15.2n83.2w, 15.7n83.7w, 16.0n84.0w, 16.4n84.3w-16.8n84.6w, 16.8n84.6w-17.2n84.9w, 17.2n84.9w-17.6n85.2w, 17.6n85.2w-18.1n85.4w, pnd, cun, mzo, 18.1n85.4w-21.17n86.65w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~18hours from now to passage into the Gulf of Mexico
^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
I'm assuming he means the hurricane off-season, and he's not making the statement that 1992 was a weak tropical season. True, it didn't produce a lot of storms...but one of those was a little thing called Andrew. :-)
All-in-all: some fine weather analysis with a bare minimum of chest-thumping. Plus, he mentioned the really nasty weather in the northeast last evening; did any of you see video of the Bronx/Brooklyn hail event? Wow...
Is the shear over the SE CONUS expected to wane in the upcoming days? It just appears to me if Paula tries to go North of Cuba she will be torn apart.
Thank You Bob, until tomorrow.
Click for larger image:
So if it comes my way, should I just cover the windows with shower curtains? Certainly a lot lighter and more stylish than the shutters! ;-)
it looks like sfla is in the cone of death
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