Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms rip the U.S.; Richard dies in the Gulf of Mexico
Tornadoes, violent thunderstorms, and torrential rains are sweeping through the nation's midsection today, thanks to an explosively deepening low pressure system over Minnesota. The spectacular storm is expected to bottom out at a central pressure of 960 mb later today, the type of central pressure one commonly encounters in Category 2 hurricanes. A powerful cold front trails southwards from the storm, and this cold front has spawned an impressive squall line studded with violent thunderstorms. As many as eleven simultaneous tornado warnings have been issued late this morning for these thunderstorms, from southern Michigan to northern Mississippi. So far, the tornadoes have been embedded within the squall line, and these type of tornadoes are typically weaker EF-0 to EF-1 twisters. However, as the day progresses and the sun's heating adds energy to the atmosphere, strong EF-2 or EF-3 tornadoes are likely, if discrete supercell thunderstorms separate from the squall line and begin to evolve. So far, six reports of tornadoes touching down have been received, but only minor damage has been reported. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southern Michigan, eastern Indiana, and western Ohio in their "High Risk" area for severe weather. "High Risk" days occur less than five times per year, on average, and are unusual in the fall. Fall storms this intense only occur perhaps once every 5 - 10 years. You can follow today's severe weather outbreak using our Severe Weather Page and Tornado page.
Figure 1. This morning's severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center puts most of Indiana and Western Ohio into their highest category for severe weather.
Richard dies
Tropical Depression Richard emerged into the Gulf of Mexico this morning after crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, passage over the Yucatan so weakened the storm that it has officially been declared dead by NHC. There was too much dry air and wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico to allow Richard to regenerate. Richard hit central Belize Sunday night as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for $18 million in damage, but no deaths were reported. Belize lost about 1/3 of its orange crop to Richard's high winds. Electrical power is still out to 30% of the country, but is expected to be fully restored by tonight.
Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Richard taken at 4:35pm EDT 10/25/10 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Richard was a tropical depression with 35 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Invest 90L
A low pressure system (Invest 90L) in the middle Atlantic Ocean has developed a broad circulation, with a band of heavy thunderstorms in an arc to the north and east of the storm. This hybrid subtropical system is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water temperatures are marginal for development, just 26.5 - 27°C (26.5°C is usually the limiting SST that a tropical storm can develop at.) NHC is giving 90L a 30% of developing into a subtropical depression or storm by Thursday.
Next update
I'll have an update on Wednesday morning. I'm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami this week, as part of their visiting scientist program, and will be shadowing NHC forecasters on the evening shift Tuesday - Friday to learn more about their operations. I'll probably talk tomorrow about the severe weather outbreak, but later this week I'll talk about what a shift at the Hurricane Center is like. I also have meetings planned with scientists at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division later this week, and plan to write about some of the research missions performed during this year's hurricane season.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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idk about actual humans, but fake ones do
LOL
Speak of the devil and he shall appear!
It's that time of year...if the heat doesn't get disspated by hurricanes, it'll get spread out some other way, huh? The Midwest is paying for it about now
Link
Up top go to the Photo Galleries. There in the upper right is a red upload photos button..click that.
no but it will be close
www.abc3340.com
not sure if that is official but we may have just broke the record
wont NWS do what they do for wind records and go and insure the accuracy of the station and if everything is accurate then accept it?
I wonder if that energy could manifest itself as a volcanic eruption.
I usually just lurk but since we're kinda in the thick of things here in southwestern North Dakota (west of Bismarck) I thought I'd check in.
Interesting pressure gradients hey?
Our county is on the western edge of the blizzard warning. Per NWS, our pressure is 29.05 and steady. It's been interesting--at times today my ears have popped as the pressure has dropped! Wind has been at 35mph for hours, with gusts to 50-55mph, some higher. No snow so far. Had some light showers during the night. Our forecast is for 1-3 inches of snow.
Been pretty achy physically for some of us old folks ;) !
My thoughts are with those on the eastern side of this front! I'd rather deal with this than tornadoes. We had enough of them this summer.
'til later,
MaddyD
At 4:52 a.m., the barometric pressure at O'Hare International Airport dropped to 29.07 inches, a new October record low in Chicago.
The weather service predicted that the storm will have the second-lowest pressure ever detected in the Great Lakes region.
The Great Ohio Blizzard on Jan. 26, 1978, holds the No. 1 spot. This new storm's pressure would be lower than that for the previous No. 2 Great Lakes event, the Armistice Day storm of Nov. 11, 1940. It would also surpass the storm on Nov. 10, 1975, that led to the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior.
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