Indonesian volcano may cut President's visit short

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on November 09, 2010

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President Obama is in Jakarta, Indonesia, but that nation's most active volcano--Mount Merapi on Java--is spewing enough ash to potentially cut the President's visit short. Merapi (literally "Mountain of Fire" in Javanese) has been erupting since late October, and the mountain's pyroclastic flows and ash have been blamed for the deaths of over 150 Indonesians since the eruption began. The capital city of Jakarta lies about 250 miles west-northwest of Merapi, and received ash from the volcano over the weekend. At Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta Airport, airlines canceled 36 flights on Saturday, and an additional 50 flights on Sunday. The airport handles about 900 flights per day. The Indonesian Disaster Management Office reported that volcanic ash from Merapi fell in Jakarta and some nearby areas such as Bogor and Puncak on Saturday night, but only in very light falls. No flights were canceled yesterday, as the ash cloud remained about 50 miles to the south of the city.


Figure 1. Signs of the eruption at Mount Merapi managed to puncture the persistent cloud cover over Java on November 5, 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this natural-color image the same day. The volcano's plume formed a V shape, fanning out to the west from the summit and casting shadows on the surrounding clouds below. According to the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Darwin, Australia, the ash plume rose to at least 55,000 feet (16 kilometers) in altitude and stretched 220 miles (350 km) to the west and southwest, as of 12:13 a.m. local time on November 6 (17:13 UTC, Nov 5). Image credit: NASA.

The winds today are blowing from east to west over the Merapi volcano, and are expected to continue this direction for the remainder of the day. According to the latest Volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Figure 2), the ash from Merapi extends about 140 miles to the west of the volcano, and is expected to remain just south of Jakarta today. However, the ash cloud is sufficiently close to the city that just a small change in wind direction could bring ash to Jakarta, which might shut down the airport. A run I performed using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model (Figure 2, right side) shows the potential for ash to reach Jakarta if Merapi erupts continuously for 48 hours, beginning at 1am EST this morning. So, the President will have to keep a careful eye on Merapi today in case the ash cloud approaches Jakarta.


Figure 2. Latest volcanic ash advisory from the Darwin, Australia Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (left) predicts that ash from Merapi will stay just south of Jakarta today. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model was run assuming a continuous 48-hour eruption of the volcano began at 1am EST this morning. That model predicts that the ash could from Merapi could come very close to Jakarta by 1am EST on Thursday.

Impact of Merapi on the climate
The amount of sulfur dioxide and ash that Merapi has thrown into the atmosphere thus far has been relatively minor as volcanic eruptions go, and I don't expect Merapi's eruption will cause a noticeable influence on the climate. As I discuss on our Volcanoes and climate web page, major volcanic eruptions in the tropics have, in the past, caused substantial cooling of Earth's climate by injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. The most notable such eruption in recent history was in 1815 by the Indonesian volcano Tambora. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany, commented in Der Spiegel magazine that Merapi has a magma reservoir triple the size of Tambora's. Lühr did not expect that the current eruption of Merapi would cause a massive climate-cooling event, but he did caution that the current cone of the volcano lies on top of the ruins of a more ancient crater, evidence that Merapi has had a cataclysmic eruption in the past.

Invest 93L in the Caribbean not currently a threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 93L) has developed in the central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 93L is rather limited, due in part to some dry air to the north. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and SSTs are very warm, 29°C, so we will have to watch this area for signs of development. None of the reliable global forecast models for predicting tropical cyclone formation (GFS, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET) are developing 93L into a tropical depression over the coming week, and NHC is giving 93L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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And now back to today's almost completely off-topic blog...

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Doesn't look like any big changes for my neck of the woods for the next 10 days:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 9 Tonight
Generally clear. Low 59F. Winds light and variable.
Nov 10 Tomorrow
Mainly sunny. High around 80F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 10 Tomorrow night
A few clouds. Low 67F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph.
Nov 11 Thursday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 12 Friday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 13 Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 14 Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 15 Monday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 16 Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 17 Wednesday
Sunshine. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 18 Thursday
A few clouds. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11405
sooo, the weather's nice today... 73 and sunny :P

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Quoting Jeff9641:
Official versions (changes in bold italics)

1892
"I pledge allegiance to my flag and the republic for which it stands: one nation indivisible with liberty and justice for all."



See? No references to god...

Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Sorry to interrupt the discussion but for those watching/involved in the Haiti situation:

Haiti - Epidemic : 3rd suspect case in the Dominican Republic

In the south of the Dominican Republic, a man with all the symptoms of cholera has been admitted to a hospital. If this case is confirmed, this would be the first official case of cholera in the Dominican Republic.


This strain is new to this hemisphere and seems particularly infectious. There is reason I feel to suspect it will spread to other nations of the Caribbean.
Member Since: May 22, 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
Interesting ACE observation:

Although 2010 is a hyperactive year, it's only 8th in the past 16 years (going back to 1995).

I guess this year has been merely average, compared to the time-frame of post-1994.
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Official versions (changes in bold italics)

1892
"I pledge allegiance to my flag and the republic for which it stands: one nation indivisible with liberty and justice for all."


1892 to 1923
"I pledge allegiance to my flag and to the republic for which it stands: one nation indivisible with liberty and justice for all."

1923 to 1924
"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States and to the republic for which it stands: one nation indivisible with liberty and justice for all."

1924 to 1954
"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the republic for which it stands; one nation indivisible with liberty and justice for all."

1954 to Present
"I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the republic for which it stands, one nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all."
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Here's a surprising visual:



The CPac has been really active this year! I'm surprised there's not a storm there!
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Quoting Neapolitan:

1) I'm a United States citizen.
2) I am not a Christian.
3) Therefore, this is not a Christian nation.

Or, more precisely, not just a Christian nation; inasmuch as a nation is the sum total of its citizens, the United States is also a Muslim nation, and a Hindu nation, and a Buddhist nation, and an agnostic nation, an and atheist nation, and a Rastafarian nation, and a Wiccan nation, and so on. And that's not because some [Christians] have "become very tolerant"; it's because the United States is, and always has been, made up of people from many different cultures, with many different beliefs, and worshipping many different deities (or none at all)--and that's as it should be. What people need to realize is that for every Christian who feels he or she is an adherent to the one and only true religion, there are many others who feel that exact same devotion and certainty for their own deity, whether that be Allah, Zeus, Haile Selassie, Rama, Nirankar, Tsukihi, or Paris Hilton. I profoundly hope that someday all will come to understand that basic truth.


Oh, come on, man, why'd you drop the whole Paris Hilton thing...
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Quoting Autistic2:
There, I fixed it for you, Please burn All YOUR money that states in God we trust. It really is a rather offencive object for you to have.


umm, I'll just take it off y'alls hands if youre planning on burning it (;
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Quoting asgolfr999:


Actually, Reed is correct, and while the above post makes sense in very many ways, we sould not forget that we do live in an insular society. We, whoever we may be, are about..well...us.

This is a nation under God. That is the Christian God, and while we have become tolerant, very much and rightly so of the other beautiful people and their beliefs, this is still a Christian country under a Christian God with what is supposed to be a God fearing president and government that makes decisions accordingly. That is STILL the constitution.

You thinking taking God out od schools has helped?

Well, do ya?

1) I'm a United States citizen.
2) I am not a Christian.
3) Therefore, this is not a Christian nation.

Or, more precisely, not just a Christian nation; inasmuch as a nation is the sum total of its citizens, the United States is also a Muslim nation, and a Hindu nation, and a Buddhist nation, and an agnostic nation, and an atheist nation, and a Rastafarian nation, and a Wiccan nation, and so on. And that's not because some [Christians] have "become very tolerant"; it's because the United States is, and always has been, made up of people from many different cultures, with many different beliefs, and worshipping many different deities (or none at all)--and that's as it should be. What people need to realize is that for every Christian who feels he or she is an adherent to the one and only true religion, there are many others who feel that exact same devotion and certainty for their own deity, whether that be Allah, Zeus, Haile Selassie, Rama, Nirankar, Tsukihi, or Paris Hilton. I profoundly hope that someday all will come to understand that basic truth; the country and the planet would be far better off for it... :-\
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13602
Interestingly, the TPR for TD 5 only has it as a TD for 12 hours...
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Quoting Autistic2:

There, I fixed it for you, Please burn All YOUR money that states in God we trust. It really is a rather offencive object for you to have.


Wasn't printed on money until 1909... added in a wave of Christianity in the states and too annoying to go through the process of removing in congress in whatnot, not really indicative of the principles that the country was founded on

and the document that you keep citing, the declaration of independence, was written by an agnostic
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
heyyyy
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Festivus for the rest of us!


Man I love that saying! It's definitely been Festivus in here today.
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Quoting Autistic2:
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men evolved created equal, that they are endowed by their Evolutionary process with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, (unless momma aborts you first)Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the politically correct federal judges

There, I fixed it for you, Please burn All YOUR money that states in God we trust. It really is a rather offencive object for you to have.


Still (kinda) the Declaration of Independence... You still haven't addressed the question of the Constitution...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Festivus for the rest of us!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11405
Quoting Jeff9641:
Here you go guys. ONE NATION UNDER GOD!


That was added in 1954... a bit retroactive for it to be the "morals that the US was founded on"
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Quoting hurristat:
For those who are wondering, the TCRs that are out are as follows:

TD Two
Tropical Storm Colin
TD Five
Tropical Storm Fiona

Tropical Storm Agatha
TD Two-E
Tropical Storm Blas
Hurricane Celia
TD Six-E
Tropical Storm Estelle
Hurricane Frank
TD Ten-E
Tropical Storm Georgette


Why in the name of God are you bringing tropical weather crap to a religious blog!?!?! You should be banned.
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Quoting TampaTom:
Just wanted to throw this out to the folks who are convinced this is a Christian nation -

Here's the transcript of the U.S. Constitution at the National Archives:

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html

Use your search feature... how many times was God mentioned? Christ? Jesus?

How could the Founding Fathers have overlooked that important detail?

But, the first amendment - the FIRST one that lays out the basic rights to free speech, the right to assemble, the right to petition government - mentions that government shall not establish a state religion or prevent the free exercise therof....


Spot on. Some sanity.
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Quoting Autistic2:
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,

Sound secular?


Oh. And thats the Dec of Independence, BTW...do you know the difference?
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223. DDR
Good evening
weather here in TRinidad has been fantastic for 3 days but will deteriorate soon.
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Quoting Autistic2:
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,

Sound secular?


Yes. It sounds very secular in fact.
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Quoting aspectre:
167 RipplinH2O "Concur, but a civil discussion on the government of rhode island would have been equally as relevant...my only point.
169 >tornadodude "but nobody cares about Rhode Island....."

Sez you. Cain't even have the possibility of a named storm on the horizon without somebodies mentioning RhodeIsland.
Just wait, it's gonna be "TD20's about to undergo RI into HurricaneUpchuck" as soon as a blob looks like it might turn into the next depression.


2010 Hurricane Season has a fork in it right now. We wait to see what Hurricane Season 2011 brings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
167 RipplinH2O "Concur, but a civil discussion on the government of rhode island would have been equally as relevant...my only poinT."
169 tornadodude "but nobody cares about Rhode Island....."

Sez you. Cain't even have the possibility of a named storm on the horizon without more than one somebody mentioning RI.
Just wait, it's gonna be "TD22's about to undergo RI into HurricaneUpchuck" as soon as a blob looks like it might turn into the next depression.
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I think 93L is just about done for!Once cold fronts dig as far south and deep as the last one, it "usually" spells over for the hurricane season.
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Quoting Autistic2:
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,

Sound secular?


That's the Declaration of Independence, not the Constitution - the document that establishes the structure of the country and is the law of the land.

How many instances did you find in the Constitution?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,

Sound secular?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

The Central CONUS will pay for this warm spell. Notice all that cold air in Canada? Guess where it is going later this week?
yeah, not too enthused about the other side of the trough... possible ice storms T-dude? Oy Gevalt!!
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Just wanted to throw this out to the folks who are convinced this is a Christian nation -

Here's the transcript of the U.S. Constitution at the National Archives:

http://www.archives.gov/exhibits/charters/constitution_transcript.html

Use your search feature... how many times was God mentioned? Christ? Jesus?

How could the Founding Fathers have overlooked that important detail?

But, the first amendment - the FIRST one that lays out the basic rights to free speech, the right to assemble, the right to petition government - mentions that government shall not establish a state religion or prevent the free exercise therof....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:


It's coming!!!!


Some of the models are showing a massive cold outbreak later next week and going into Thanksgiving. Well See!!
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Here you go guys. ONE NATION UNDER GOD!
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It's coming!!!!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22563
good LORD..... there, I've done my part. Now back to work
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Quoting largeeyes:


An American expression, apparently. How are things on Curacao? Would it be wise to avoid visiting for a day?


You should visit its nice here!! Only the rain is the issue now. At the moment parts of the island is having some rain. Where i am i can only hear the thunder but no rain so far. But Curacao is a very beautiful island with many things to do!!
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Quoting txgulfcoastlurker:

why are you talking about this on a WEATHER blog???



Appearantly, it's been the topic all day.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553

why are you talking about this on a WEATHER blog???

Quoting caneswatch:


Wrong. This is a nation where all religions are accepted. This is not just a Christian nation, but a nation of Atheists, Buddhists, Hindus, Hebrews, and Muslims.
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The government of Rhode Island is built upon the premise that all Rhode Islanders are endowed equally and created with certain rights, most of which are inalienable...
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Quoting caneswatch:


Wrong. This is a nation where all religions are accepted. This is not just a Christian nation, but a nation of Atheists, Buddhists, Hindus, Hebrews, and Muslims.


And Christians.
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Quoting asgolfr999:


Actually, Reed is correct, and while the above post makes sense in very many ways, we sould not forget that we do live in an insular society. We, whoever we may be, are about..well...us.

This is a nation under God. That is the Christian God, and while we have become tolerant, very much and rightly so of the other beautiful people and their beliefs, this is still a Christian country under a Christian God with what is supposed to be a God fearing president and government that makes decisions accordingly. That is STILL the constitution.

You thinking taking God out od schools has helped?

Well, do ya?


Wrong. This is a nation where all religions are accepted. This is not just a Christian nation, but a nation of Atheists, Buddhists, Hindus, Hebrews, and Muslims.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
204. xcool
brb
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203. xcool
lmao matt wowww
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Tomorrow, 10 November, 235 years old
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01110111 01100101 01101100 01101100 00100000 01001001 00100111 01101101 00100000 01101111 01100110 01100110 00101100 00100000 01110100 01101001 01101101 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101111 00100000 01110100 01110010 01111001 00100000 01101111 01110101 01110100 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01101110 01100101 01110111 00100000 01101101 01101111 01100100 01100101 01110010 01101110 00100000 01110111 01100001 01110010 01100110 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01100111 01100001 01101101 01100101 00100000 01101100 01101111 01101100 00100000 01101000 01100001 01110110 01100101 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100111 01101111 01101111 01100100 00100000 01101111 01101110 01100101 00100000 01100101 01110110 01100101 01110010 01111001 01101111 01101110 01100101 00100001

link
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200. xcool
i have to looking at forecast models...
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Quoting asgolfr999:


Actually, Reed is correct, and while the above post makes sense in very many ways, we sould not forget that we do live in an insular society. We, whoever we may be, are about..well...us.

This is a nation under God. That is the Christian God, and while we have become tolerant, very much and rightly so of the other beautiful people and their beliefs, this is still a Christian country under a Christian God with what is supposed to be a God fearing president and government that makes decisions accordingly. That is STILL the constitution.

You thinking taking God out od schools has helped?

Well, do ya?


I don't want to get into a prolonged debate, but the Supreme Court stated that there should be a separation of Church and State. There is no imperative for our presidents to be Christian, but as the majority of the electorate is Christian, most of our presidents are Christian. Not all have been. Thomas Jefferson, the author of the Declaration of Independence, was either deist or agnostic. And James Madison, the main architect of the Constitution, was not openly religious, he chose to keep to himself, so he's not necessarily Christian.

And for as long as public schooling has been instituted, public schools have been secular. I would love to have a religion class, where everyone learns what the religions of the world believe, but I don't think that Christianity should be taught, as not everyone is Christian, and as the US is not, in principle, a Christian nation. The US is a secular country.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Quoting caneswatch:
I don't see the day when this comes to civility. Here's the facts: America is a nation for ALL religious and non-religious people. It's what the founding fathers wanted because of the extreme control the British put on us. The day the nation gets better is the day when we accept all religions, and unfortunately, one party isn't ready to do that.


Oh really and who is that? The democrats want to ban all religion so you must be talking about the Republicans. I wasn't aware that they wanted to ban any religion. Please educate me.
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Quoting xcool:
lol


XCOOL what are thoughts of this cold air progged to dump south out of Canada next week?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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