Major Pacific Northwest winter storm poised to slam Eastern U.S. this weekend
A major winter storm powered ashore today in the Pacific Northwest, bringing heavy rain and snow to the Olympic Mountains. This storm dumped four inches of rain over the Olympics, bringing the Skokomish River to flood stage. Record warm temperatures ahead of the storm have surged northwards across the Pacific Northwest, with Seattle, Washington hitting a record high of 55°F yesterday. Snowfall amounts approaching 2 feet are expected in the Olympic Mountains from the storm, with 1 - 3 feet likely in the Cascade Mountains. This is typical sort of storm one expects to see during a La Niña winter.
Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation from the Seattle radar for the period Dec 7 - Dec 8. Precipitation amounts in excess of 4 inches have occurred over the Olympic Mountains. Mountains surrounding Seattle block the radar beam, leading to the streaky nature of the image.
As the storm tracks eastwards over the Central U.S. later this week, it will intensify and pull in a large amount of cold, Canadian air. The latest set of computer model runs have come into much better agreement on the track of the storm, and a band of heavy snow of 6 - 10 inches is likely to set up over Central Illinois on Saturday afternoon. The storm will move rapidly eastwards, with the heaviest snow likely to impact northern Indiana, northern Ohio, and southern Ontario on Sunday. The biggest cold blast of the season thus far will roar in behind the storm, causing widespread blowing and drifting of the snow, plus new heavy Lake-effect snows in the lee of the Great Lakes. Low temperatures approaching -20°F are likely in northern Minnesota Saturday and Sunday night after the storm passes. By Tuesday morning, much of the eastern half of the nation will shiver through one the coldest mornings on record for the first half of December, with below freezing temperatures expected to penetrate all the way into South Florida. Record lows were set across much of Southeast U.S. this morning, with 39°F at Fort Lauderdale, 16°F in Columbia SC, and 9°F in Lychburg, VA. Temperatures much colder than this are likely on Tuesday morning across the region.
Figure 2. Forecast surface temperature for 7am EST on Tuesday, December 14, as predicted by this morning's 1am EST run of the GFS model. The heavy red line running along the coast of Florida is the 0°C freezing line, and temperatures below freezing are expected across nearly all of the Southeast U.S.
I'll have a new post on Thursday, when I'll discuss the CSU and TSR forecasts for the 2011 hurricane season. The TSR forecast was released Monday, and the CSU forecast is due out later today.
Jeff Masters
An image from the Lake Effect Snow Chase that Matt and I went on.
CLICK HERE for the entire chase account detailed with videos and photos!
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Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 7:00 PM EST Wednesday 8 December 2010
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.09 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3
Temperature: 17.8°F
Dewpoint: 7.2°F
Humidity: 63 %
Wind: WNW 16 mph
Wind Chill: 3
No precip of any kind today. Anyone here get flurries around the gulf coast?
What up Orca and KOTG!
Yeah, it's been heavy....
I am not sure when these warnings/comments were issued, but over the past 4 hours the weather has cleared a bit (stars are out!!) and unless something changes soon, tomorrow should be a less wet day.
Rivers are overflowing in several areas, and others are at max. right now.
Only minor landslips reported, but if this does not clear out of here soon, we will be in some trouble....
Man, thats cold! We complaining about our lows in the high 20s.
Save the Wine!
17f now going down to a low of 8f or 9f with chills of -5 or -10f depending on winds
Nowhere to store it.
Working on Disposing of it, in the Approved Manner.
"cheers"
How do you keep the inside of a house at 70f in that kind of cold?
Get a tire intertube with an icechest/box tied on it. There you go!
You burn the furniture ???
It is if you don't like it. And by the way, no one here is talking about GW. So either post a good Christmas song or S!@#w off. :)
Umm! Smores. ;)
Do ya'll have people building houses, buildings this time of year. Or does construction kinda stop during the cold snaps?
My feeling is that these rains will continued well into next year.
When the poui trees start to blossom in November,you know the next wet season will start early,strange...
Are the models coming in warmer in the SE?
Also the NAM has more rain for the south and southeast and saying the cold blast won't catch up to the rain.. B/c most of the precipitation would be near or ahead of the front that is moving through.. But I believe these models will flip flop back n forth until they get better agreement near friday.. JMO
I am good with that!
In the meantime, the Panama Canal is closed.
Due to heavy rains that have overfilled some of the lakes that make-up the Canal. The Panamanians are dumping water from some of the lakes, in an effort to re-open the Canal.
This will create havoc for Pacific/Atlantic shipping, if the rains dont ease up there.
That might be a possibility. Both NOAA and Accuweather haven't changed their original forecast even after the talks of a major cold spell.
Lord, no GW. There were some good tunes. Here's hoping you like it.
Cheers!
Thanks for that info,i had no idea
That's La nina,rain making monster :S
See no reason why it won't be an above average year. El Nino is unlikely.
It's on the BBC website...
Dang, almost 7 months before the next Atlantic season, it's nearly the Holiday's, and no humor. Sad.
I am not sure why Orca is always so worried about snow in Macon, Georgia. I love snow! And I am always prepared for any weather event. Why, with my equipment, I could even clear up 5 feet of snow. :)
I notice that you have all 5 feet trained to walk into the tractor-bucket too!
Well Done!
But, I have to ask, what kind of animal up there, has 5 feet?
And, did you have to kill it ?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CST Wednesday Dec 8 2010
Discussion...focus of this forecast will be on the cold temperatures
tonight...then shift to the weekend when a powerful storm will
develop across the east half of the Continental U.S. And bring winds/rain and
more cold conditions to our region for next week.
Our upper low is exiting the County Warning Area this afternoon and clouds are
dissipating in the wake of the system as subsidence develops. There
is a pesky area of low stratus that is stuck under some sort of
inversion over NE la and the western portion of the County Warning Area. This cloud
deck could play havoc with temperatures overnight if it persists longer
than expected. I'm not sure how it will evolve as model guidance does
not know it exists. My plan is to have it linger into early evening
and dissipate as the subsident flow continues to work on it. This
will result in all of the County Warning Area seeing clear skies overnight which
will result in optimal rad cooling conditions as the surface high
settles over the region. Look for a very cold night with lower 20s
area wide and a few teens possible in the typical cold spots and
outlying areas. A few records may be in jeopardy as temperatures bottom
out. Here is a list of the potential records that may fall: (tvr
24)(gwo 20)(hbg 20).
Look for moderating conditions Thursday into Friday as the surface high shifts
east and return flow develops. Conditions will still remain below
normals on Thursday and Thursday night...but just not as cold as recent days.
Better return flow develops on Friday and the resulting low level
moisture advection will offer a challenging temperature forecast. The GFS shows
warmer low level readings pushing north. However...as this
occurs...low clouds develop and keeps highs from reaching their
potential. The NAM/Euro also indicate low clouds...but mix the
boundary layer better and warm things up several more degrees. Due
to the warm air advection regime...will follow the consensus and use a blend of the
GFS/NAM...which is more in line with the Euro and the previous forecast.
In response to the developing cyclone and deepening upper
trough...warm air advection will increase quite a bit Friday night and offer the
chance of some showers later in the period. Temperatures will also be
tricky as lows will likely be met in the evening or around midnight
before warmer conditions develop toward sunrise as increasing
southerly flow pushes more low level moisture into the County Warning Area.
The main action and forecast impacts will come Sat afternoon into
Sunday. The cyclone that will develop late Sat into Monday will be
quite the system and will likely make headlines as a major storm for
a large portion of the eastern United States. Initially...this
developing system will bring strong southerly winds to our area for
Sat afternoon ahead of the deepening surface low and strong cold front.
Due to the intense dynamics of the system and increasing wind
fields...the risk of strong and severe storms remains a possibility.
The limiting factor will be instability and the details on this will
hopefully become more clear in the next few days. The strong cold
front looks to enter the northwest County Warning Area sometime from late afternoon into
early evening then quickly shift across the County Warning Area overnight. Much
colder conditions will follow this front along with increasing northwest
surface winds as intense pressure rises occur. Conditions sun will be
quite raw with windy conditions and strong cold air advection occurring. Temperatures may
struggle to reach the 40s for some locations and likely hold steady
or fall during the day.
Much colder conditions are expected for Monday into Tuesday as the core of
the Arctic air slides just to the east of the region. Even with
that...we will see enough of this cold air to experience lows in the
lower 20s and highs from the 30s to lower 40s. The potential exists
for even colder readings which may result in hard freeze conditions
for Mon-Tue. The severe weather potential statement will continue to mention these various hazards
for the Sat-Tuesday periods. /Cme/
Well, in the absence of a relevant answer, I will have to surmise that it is either a 4-footed animal, with a spare.
Or perhaps 2 -and- a- half, 2-footed animals. In which case, what happened to the missing half?
Good evening, Kind Sir.
Did you not notice the imperious sign reading: "No humor posts"?
(chuckling)
Good evening.
how's the weather?
Sorry for the delay my good man, I was off looking through my "My Photos" section for the photo of the big kid playing in the snow from Feb of this year here in Macon. The answer to your question is simple. My two grandchildren were too small to build a snowman, so we just built snow feet. We got to five when grandma called us inside for hot chocolate and cookies. Well, what could I do? We went inside of course. :)
Sorry Doug, 53.8 here.
evening Tornadodude.. its 34 and feel like 27 and dropping in the panhandle of FL.. How u doing??
It never got to our predicted low, yesterday or today. I think the land mass this time of year moderates the air mass, more than some forecasters think. It happens pretty much every year.
Good evening, Dover. Agreed.
The models have been stuck to it like glue. It doesn't look to good for them.
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