-28° to 72° in 6 days: a wild ride in Oklahoma
The plants and animals of northeast Oklahoma are officially freaking out. Cold air pouring in behind last week's remarkable snowstorm over northeast Oklahoma brought unprecedented cold to the state on February 10, with a bone-chilling -31°F recorded at Nowata and -28°F at Bartlesville. These were the coldest temperatures ever measured in Oklahoma. But what a difference a week makes! Yesterday afternoon, just six days after experiencing -28°F, Bartlesville hit 72°F--an incredible 100°F temperature swing in just six days. Nearby Ponca City, which hit -25°F six days previously, hit 75°F yesterday, also achieving a 100°F temperature swing in just six days.

Figure 1. Record snows of 25" piled up in northeast Oklahoma near Afton on February 9, 2011. The fresh coasting of snow, which is a very excellent emitter of infrared radiation to space, enabled temperatures in Northeast Oklahoma to plunge to record lows on the morning of February 10. Image credit: wunderphotographer Bladerider.
A 100+ degree temperature change in just six days is a phenomenally rare event. I checked the records for over twenty major cities in the Midwest in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana, and could not find any examples of a 100-degree temperature swing in so short a period of time. The closest I came was a 108° swing in temperature in fourteen days at Valentine, Nebraska, from -27°F on March 11, 1998 to 82°F on March 25, 1998. Valentine also had a 105°F temperature swing in fifteen days from November 29, 1901 (71°F) to December 14, 1901 (-34°F.) Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, lists the world record for fastest 24-hour change in temperature as the 103°F warm-up from -54° to 49° that occurred on January 14 - 15, 1972, during a chinook wind in Lowe, Montana. This week's remarkable roller coaster ride of temperatures in Oklahoma is truly a remarkable event that has few parallels in recorded history.
Darwin sets its all-time 24-hour rainfall record
Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Over the past three days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 25.37" (644.6 mm) of rain on the Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Carlos has moved slowly inland today, and continues to dump rain on Darwin, but these rains will gradually subside over the next few days as the storm weakens and moves farther inland. Not surprisingly, the rains have triggered major flooding in the Darwin area. The heavy rains in Darwin are due to the very slow motion of the storm, which has been able to keep a significant portion of its circulation over the warm 30°C (86°F) waters off the coast. These water temperatures are near normal for this time of year. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.

Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Carlos taken at 14:35 UTC on February 17, 2011. Spiral bands from Tropical Storm Carlos were rotating clockwise onto shore near Darwin, adding to that city's record rainfall totals. Image credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.
Carlos' deluge add to the misery of flood-weary Australia, which has suffered from some of its greatest natural disasters in history in 2011. Earlier this month, Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi smashed into Queensland with 155 mph winds, making it the strongest hurricane to hit Queensland since at least 1918. Yasi was the second most expensive tropical cyclone ever to hit Australia, with damages currently estimated near $3 billion. Australia is still reeling from torrential deluges that affected the states of Queensland and Victoria November - January, triggering flooding that caused the most expensive natural disaster in Australian history. Damage estimates of the flood are speculative, but range from $10 - $30 billion. The floods were spawned by the rainiest September - November (spring) and December in Queensland's history, driven in part by La Niña-enhanced sea surface temperatures along the coast that were the warmest on record. However, all rivers in the flooded eastern half of Queensland have now fallen below flood level. Rainfall amounts in the coming week are expected to be in the 1 - 4 inch range, which should not cause any significant new flooding problems.
Tropical Cyclone Bingiza makes a 2nd landfall in Madagascar
On Monday, Tropical Cyclone Bingiza roared ashore over Northern Madagascar as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The storm is being blamed for six deaths, has left 15,000 homeless, and has destroyed 8,500 buildings. After re-emerging over the waters of the Mozambique Channel between Africa and Madagascar on Tuesday, Bingiza re-intensified, and made a second landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar early today as a tropical storm. Bingiza is expected to dissipate over Madagascar tomorrow, but not before dumping very heavy rains capable of causing additional flooding problems on Madagascar's deforested mountain slopes.

Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Bingiza making its second landfall over Madagascar at 14 UTC on February 17, 2011. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Bingiza is just the second tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean (west of 90E) during the 2010 - 2011 season; this is an unusually low amount of activity for the basin. According to an email I received from Sebastien Langlade of the tropical cyclone forecasting office on La Reunion Island, January 2011 was the first January since accurate records began in 1998 that the Southwest Indian Ocean failed to record a single tropical storm. The only other storm in the basin so far this season has been Tropical Cyclone Abele (29 Nov - 4 Dec 2010), a Category 1 storm that stayed out to sea. Bingiza was the 4th major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclone world-wide this year.
Jeff Masters
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yes.. China had problems from the flare.. I posted it this morning in the previous blog
be interesting to see next set at 00z
thanks!
rally? thats cuul!
Link
By SARAH EDDINGTON, Associated Press Sarah Eddington, Associated Press Thu Feb 17, 9:45 am ET
LITTLE ROCK, Ark. – Jim Sutterfield was briefly puzzled by a thumping sound that seemed to slam the back of his office chair. But when the small-town Arkansas fire chief turned and saw no one was around, he quickly realized it was just an earthquake — again.
"That was only my second time to feel one, but others here have felt them for three or four months now," Greenbrier chief Jim Sutterfield said after feeling the latest tremor on Wednesday. "Now when it happens, people say, 'Well, there's another one.'"
Several small earthquakes ranging in magnitude from 1.8 to 3.8 have rattled the north-central Arkansas cities of Greenbrier and Guy this week, and the cause is unknown.
The U.S. Geological Survey has reported more than 30 earthquakes in the area since Sunday, including a magnitude 3.8 quake Thursday morning and at least 16 others occurring Wednesday, two of which were magnitude 3.2 and 3.5. More than 700 quakes have occurred in the region over the past six months.
it was nice today here too reached a high of 50.4 according to my PWS
That's for Foxxy, and since I'm just down the road!
Actually we just entered the watch box if you will :)
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html
Link
Wow, you remodeled since I was there last. Nice job too. Quite comprehensive!
See there I go again. It's lunch. :P
just bustin your chops wash
Link
ScienceDaily (Feb. 17, 2011) — The ozone layer -- the thin atmospheric band high-up in the stratosphere that protects living things on Earth from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays, not to be confused with damaging ozone pollution close to the ground -- faces potential new challenges even as it continues its recovery from earlier damage, according to a recently released international science assessment. The report, prepared by the Scientific Assessment Panel of the U.N. Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, also presents stronger evidence that links changes in stratospheric ozone and Earth's climate.
The report finds that over the past decade, global ozone levels, and ozone levels in the Arctic and Antarctic regions are at a turnaround point -- no longer decreasing but not yet increasing. The abundances of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are responding as expected to the controls of the Montreal Protocol, with many now declining in both the lower and upper atmosphere.
By successfully controlling the emissions of ozone-depleting substances, the Montreal Protocol also has been beneficial for the climate, because many of these substances are heat trapping, or greenhouse, gases that are linked to Earth's warming.
"The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in protecting the ozone layer from much higher levels of depletion," said A.R. Ravishankara, director of NOAA's Chemical Sciences Division and co-chair of the Scientific Assessment Panel that produced the report. "But the ozone layer will increasingly be influenced by other factors related to the changing climate."
For example, climate change alters the atmosphere's temperature and circulation patterns, which in turn affect the processes that deplete the ozone layer. One projected outcome of this relationship is that ozone in the Arctic, where the most severe changes in climate are being observed, is projected to be more sensitive to climate changes than ozone in the Antarctic, where climate change is relatively less of an influence on the ozone layer.
Effects also work in reverse. Changes in the ozone layer have been linked to observed shifts in seasonal surface winds over the Southern Hemisphere, contributing to the Antarctic Peninsula warming and the high plateau cooling.
By Julie Steenhuysen
Posted 2011/02/17 at 3:13 pm EST
CHICAGO, Feb. 17, 2011 (Reuters) — The laser -- a 50-year-old invention now used in everything from CDs to laser pointers -- has met its match in the "antilaser," the first device capable of trapping and canceling out laser beams.
While such a device would seem most fitting in a science fiction movie, its real-world application will likely be in next-generation, optical computers, which will be powered by light in addition to electrons, U.S. researchers said on Thursday.
"It's a device which basically works like running a laser backwards," A. Douglas Stone of Yale University, who published his findings in the journal Science, said in a telephone interview.
While a laser takes in electrical energy and emits light in a very narrow frequency range, Stone said, his antilaser takes in laser light and transforms it into heat energy.
But it could be easily converted into electrical energy, he said.
Conventional lasers, which were invented in 1960, use a so-called "gain medium," such as a semiconductor material, to produce a focused beam of light waves.
Stone's device uses silicon as an absorbent "loss-medium" that traps light waves, which bounce around until they are converted into heat.
And while the technology seems cool, his antilaser would never be used as a potential laser shield.
"This is something that absorbs lasers. If a ray gun was intended to kill you, it's going to kill you," Stone said.
He said the most obvious use of his device is in computing. "The next generation of high performance computers are going to have hybrid chips," Stone said.
Instead of having chips with transistors and silicon, these new computers will use both light and electrical energy.
Stone said the device could be used as a sort of optical switch that can be turned on and off at will.
Ultimately, he said, the technology could find its way in radiology.
Not sure why it is when a forecast doesn't pan out that some feel the need to refer to it as overhyped junk science; if nothing else, I suppose that serves to highlight the real disconnect that exists between casual blog visitors and actual scientists. The thing is, those scientists are honorable people. And just like carpenters, surgeons, and electricians, they have a craft, and they practice it every day. They study the physical world and produce reports that explain one more piece of the great mystery, and forecasts based on those pieces as they see them. Few people bother to read those reports, and thus stumble around blindly in the dark, confused about what is happening and completely unprepared for what is coming, and all too eager to degrade those scientists. But why do that? If your doctor says he fears you have a tumor but it turns out to be just a benign cyst, you don't accuse him of "overhyped junk science", do you?
In Boston, the greatest monthly range is in December (-17~76 -- 93 degrees). Interestingly enough the range on December 30 is 90 degrees (-17~73), which is also (by quite a lot) the greatest daily range -- not in the same year!
The greatest short-term temperature changes are usually with strong back door/side door cold fronts in April and early May. In 2003 we had one day with a high of 84 (a record) and the next day the high was 40 (one degree shy of the record low max). The high was at midnight; the high during the day was about 35, and there were stations with >50 degree 24 hour temperature drops.
I notice Bartlesville eventually hit 82 today, so it wound up being 110 degrees in 6 days.
To Australia:
"Surrender, we've got you surrounded"
Rainbow
Carlos
Geomagnetic Storm Watch Still in Effect
02/17/2011 by Kevin VE3EN at 21:40
Comment on Message Board
Geomagnetic Storm Watch - As of 21:45 UTC Thursday, there has still not been any shock detected from any one of atleast 3 incoming Coronal Mass Ejections. The following statement below is from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
February 17, 2011 -- The first interplanetary shock, driven by the CME from Sunday, is expected any time. Soon thereafter, the shock from Monday evening's R3/CME is due. Look for G1-G2 (and maybe periods of G3 if the following shock compresses and enhances the CME magnetic field). Geomagnetic storming should persist 24- 48 hours.
Another source is stating that the incoming CME activity could have missed us altogether. Time will tell.
Solar Update - The solar X-Rays have been fairly quiet early on Thursday with only minor C-Class activity. Sunspot 1158 and 1161 both remain large sunspots and there is still a chance for M-Class flares
GOES Flare class: X2.2
Flare peak time: 01:45 UT 15-Feb-2011
The first X flare of the new solar cycle and the first X flare that SDO has observed.
This was a beautiful flare and dramatic eruption with an associated coronal wave that affects the whole Sun. Nice coronal loop oscillation (ringing) is clearly visible.
Carlos and Dianne sitting in a tree...
I MISSED THE PART WHERE YOU PROVED THE EARTH ISN'T WARMING.
AND THE PART WHERE YOU PROVED THE GREENHOUSE GAS THEORY FALSE.
Just one wordy post about a book, yet still no evidence, go figure.
That's great; you've shown us a bunch of unscientific blather by an ardent anti-environmentalist/PR advisor. Now, do you have any peer-reviewed science to post that refutes the basic tenets of the theory of AGW? (You know: the plant is warming rapidly due to an increase in the amount of atmospheric CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels?) I'll be standing by with bated breath...
National Climatic Data Center
Global Climate Change Indicators
Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?
Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe.
This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.
These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate
Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.
Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
12:00 PM FST February 18 2011
======================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (1000 hPa) located at 14.8S 169.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.
Organization improved past 24 hours with primary bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center from southern quadrant but restricted elsewhere due to moderate shear. Convection increased in the past 6 hours with visible satellite imagery depicts consolidated deep convection developing over the low level circulation center. Cyclonic circulation extending from surface to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. System lies along a surface trough and under an upper diffluent region. System steered southwest by easterly deep layer mean regime. CIMSS analysis indicates weak shear to north and south of system. Mid-level ridge to south of system is expected to weaken and recede to west as west as system moves south.
Dvorak assessment based on 0.3 wrap on LOG10 spiral yielding DT=1.5, PT=1.5. Final T number based on DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS.
Global models agree on a southward movement before moving it southeastward with little intensification.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.5S 169.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 16.3S 169.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 17.3S 169.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
February 16, 2011
The ozone layer — the thin atmospheric band high-up in the stratosphere that protects living things on Earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays, not to be confused with damaging ozone pollution close to the ground — faces potential new challenges even as it continues its recovery from earlier damage, according to a recently released international science assessment. The report, prepared by the Scientific Assessment Panel of the U.N. Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, also presents stronger evidence that links changes in stratospheric ozone and the Earth’s climate.
The report finds that over the past decade, global ozone levels, and ozone levels in the Arctic and Antarctic regions are at a turnaround point — no longer decreasing but not yet increasing. The abundances of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere are responding as expected to the controls of the Montreal Protocol, with many now declining in both the lower and upper atmosphere.
By successfully controlling the emissions of ozone-depleting substances, the Montreal Protocol also has been beneficial for the climate, because many of these substances are heat trapping, or greenhouse, gases that are linked to the Earth’s warming.
“The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in protecting the ozone layer from much higher levels of depletion,” said A.R. Ravishankara, director of NOAA’s Chemical Sciences Division and co-chair of the Scientific Assessment Panel that produced the report. “But the ozone layer will increasingly be influenced by other factors related to the changing climate.”
For example, climate change alters the atmosphere’s temperature and circulation patterns, which in turn affect the processes that deplete the ozone layer. One projected outcome of this relationship is that ozone in the Arctic, where the most severe changes in climate are being observed, is projected to be more sensitive to climate changes than ozone in the Antarctic, where climate change is relatively less of an influence on the ozone layer.
Effects also work in reverse. Changes in the ozone layer have been linked to observed shifts in seasonal surface winds over the Southern Hemisphere, contributing to the Antarctic Peninsula warming and the high plateau cooling.
This animation uses data from NOAA’s satellites to show the annual changes in the size of the Antarctic ozone hole, along with daily fluctuations in global ozone concentration. As pointed out in the report, the size of the Antarctic ozone hole appears to have reached a turnaround point, whereby the hole is not getting worse each year, but at the same time it is not decreasing.
Full size animation (Credit: NOAA)
The Antarctic ozone hole was discovered in 1985. Soon after, scientists established that the recurring springtime ozone hole was caused by human-made substances such as chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, used in refrigeration and halons used in fire extinguishers. The findings became a “science success story” as governments recognized the need for measures to reduce the production and consumption of a number of CFCs, halons and other ozone-depleting substances.
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer was adopted in 1987 and came into force in 1989. It was designed so that the schedules for phasing out ozone-depleting substances could be revised based on periodic scientific and technological assessments, be amended or adjusted to introduce other kinds of control measures, and to add new controlled substances to the list. The 2010 scientific assessment just released provides information needed by the Protocol’s decision-makers during the coming few years as they consider possible further actions to protect the ozone layer.
A return to pre-1980 levels of ozone is expected around mid-century in mid-latitude regions and the Arctic, with recovery in the Antarctic expected to follow later this century, according to the assessment.
The ozone layer’s continued protection depends on future adherence to the provisions of the Montreal Protocol, as well as potential new influences, such as possible unintended consequences of proposals to deliberately add compounds to the atmosphere to counteract warming due to heat-trapping gases.
“The Montreal Protocol is doing what it was designed to do and we are seeing less of the ozone-depleting substances covered by the agreement,” said Ravishankara. “This has protected the ozone layer. But the atmosphere and climate are changing, so the ozone layer will not exactly retrace its steps.”
NOAA scientists and colleagues contributed findings that were critical to the assessment report. Namely, they led studies that determined the cause of the Antarctic ozone hole and elucidated the processes involved in ozone depletion in other regions of the globe. Teams have also tracked the state of the ozone layer and the abundances of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and modeled the past and projected future state of the ozone layer.
The 2010 assessment was conducted under the auspices of the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. It involved more than 300 international scientists as authors and reviewers.
The full report is posted on the UNEP website: http://www.unep.ch/ozone/Assessment_Panels/SAP/ind ex.shtml
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us on Facebook.
No I asked you to show me where it is known the earth is cooling and where you proved that the greenhouse gas theory is wrong. You answer that first. I never said the earth was warming or that the greenhouse gas theory is correct. I'm not the one making claims, you are.
So I ask you to back them up, now please do so, I am waiting.
Displaying the only post.
*
Alexander Do Rio
Here is a list of organizations that accept anthropogenic global warming as real and scientifically well-supported:
• NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS): http://www.giss.nasa.gov/edu/gwdebate/
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming. html
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm
• National Academy of Sciences (NAS): http://books.nap.edu/collections/global_warming/in dex.html
• State of the Canadian Cryosphere (SOCC) - http://www.socc.ca/permafrost/permafrost_future_e. cfm
• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): http://epa.gov/climatechange/index.html
• The Royal Society of the UK (RS) - http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/page.asp?id=3135
• American Geophysical Union (AGU): http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/climate_change_p osition.html
• American Meteorological Society (AMS): http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/climatechangeresearc h_2003.html
• American Institute of Physics (AIP): http://www.aip.org/gov/policy12.html
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR): http://eo.ucar.edu/basics/cc_1.html
• American Meteorological Society (AMS): http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/jointacademies.html
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS): http://www.cmos.ca/climatechangepole.html
Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of
Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists, Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
http://www.royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?...
- All major science journals, including Nature, Science, Scientific American, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and a multitude of climatology and geophysics journals.
Every major scientific institution dealing with climate, ocean, and/or atmosphere agrees that the climate is warming rapidly and the primary cause is human CO2 emissions.
In addition to that list, see also this joint statement (PDF) http://nationalacademies.org/onpi/06072005.pdf that specifically and unequivocally endorses the work and conclusions of the IPCC Third Assessment report. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm The statement was issued by:
Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil), Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Academie des Sciences (France), Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany), Indian National Science Academy, Accademia dei Lincei (Italy), Science Council of Japan, Russian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society (United Kingdom), National Academy of Sciences (United States of America)
You can also read this statement [PDF], http://www.royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id= 13619 which includes all the above signatories plus the following:,
Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Caribbean Academy of Sciences ,Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Academy of Sciences Malaysia , Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand .Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
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