Russian heat wave of 2010 due to natural causes: NOAA study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM GMT on March 10, 2011

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The deadliest heat wave in human history--the 2010 Russian heat wave, which killed approximately 56,000 people last summer--was due to a natural atmospheric phenomenon often associated with weather extremes, according to a new NOAA study. The study, titled "Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?" was accepted for publication in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, and used observations and computer climate models to evaluate the possible roles of natural and human-caused climate influences on the severity of the heat wave.


Figure 1. Daily Moscow temperature record from November 1 2009 to October 31 2010. Red and blue shaded areas represent departures from the long-term average (smooth curve) in Moscow. Temperatures significantly above the long-term average scorched Moscow for much of July and August. Image credit: NOAA.

Here's the body of the NOAA Press Release on the study:

"Knowledge of prior regional climate trends and current levels of greenhouse gas concentrations would not have helped us anticipate the 2010 summer heat wave in Russia," said lead author Randall Dole, deputy director of research at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division and a fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). "Nor did ocean temperatures or sea ice status in early summer of 2010 suggest what was to come in Russia."

Temperatures in the upper 90s to above 100°F scorched western Russia and surrounding areas from July through mid-August, 2010. In Moscow, the long-term daily average temperatures for July range from 65-67°F; in 2010, daily average July temperatures soared up to 87°. Daily average temperatures include the night. The exceptional heat over such a long duration, combined with poor air quality from wildfires increased deaths by at least 56,000 in Moscow and other parts of western Russia, according to Munich Reinsurance, and led to massive crop failures in the region.

While a contribution to the heat wave from climate change could not be entirely ruled out, if it was present, it played a much smaller role than naturally occurring meteorological processes in explaining this heat wave's intensity.

The researchers cautioned that this extreme event provides a glimpse into the region's future as greenhouse gases continue to increase, and the signal of a warming climate, even at this regional scale, begins to emerge more clearly from natural variability in coming decades. Climate models evaluated for the new study show a rapidly increasing risk of such heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century.

"It appears that parts of Russia are on the cusp of a period in which the risk of extreme heat events will increase rapidly," said co-author Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist, also from ESRL.

Dole called the intensity of this heat wave a "climate surprise," expected to occur only very rarely in Russia's current climate. With the possibility of more such events in the future, studying the Russian event better prepares scientists to understand climate phenomena that will affect the U.S. and other parts of the globe.

The team--led by Dole, Hoerling, and Judith Perlwitz from the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder--sifted through long-term observations and results from 22 global climate models, looking for trends that might help explain the extraordinarily high temperatures in western Russia during the 2010 summer. They also ran atmospheric models that used observed global sea surface temperatures, Arctic sea ice conditions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in 2010 to assess whether such factors might have contributed to the heat wave.

The heat wave was due primarily to a natural phenomenon called an atmospheric "blocking pattern," in which a strong high pressure system developed and remained stationary over western Russian, keeping summer storms and cool air from sweeping through the region and leading to the extreme hot and dry conditions. While the blocking pattern associated with the 2010 event was unusually intense and persistent, its major features were similar to atmospheric patterns associated with prior extreme heat wave events in the region since 1880, the researchers found.

They also found that western Russia has not experienced significant climate warming during the summer season over the 130 years from 1880-2009, despite significant warming of globally averaged temperatures during that time. Such a "warming hole" is not unique to that region and is not entirely unexpected, as the Earth is not uniformly warming and experiences distinct geographic areas that may be warmer or cooler than the average trend.

"We know that climate change is not taking place at the same rate everywhere on the globe," said Hoerling. "Western Russia is one of the parts of the world that has not seen a significant increase in summertime temperatures. The U.S. Midwest is another."

Dole compared his team's findings to trying to hear a quiet conversation underneath the roar of a noisy fan: a summertime signal due to climate change over western Russia was drowned out by the much larger climate "noise," or variability, resulting from natural processes.

Authors of the new paper, Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave? are Randall Dole1, Martin Hoerling1, Judith Perlwitz2, Jon Eischeid2, Philip Pegion2, Tao Zhang2, Xiao-Wei Quan2, Taiyi Xu2, and Donald Murray2. The team is part of a NOAA effort to better understand the underlying causes of high-impact weather and climate events, with the ultimate goal of better anticipating them.

NOAA Climate Attribution: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/



Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4, 2010 covered an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would have extended from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

Commentary
Climate change has fundamentally altered Earth's atmosphere in significant ways; the additional heat and moisture in the atmosphere alters global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns, making it difficult to disentangle to what degree an extreme weather event may be natural. The new NOAA attribution study on the Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is a reminder that the atmosphere is capable of generating extreme events on its own, without the aid of climate change. Attribution studies are difficult and take many months or years to complete. When an extreme weather event such as a great flood or deadly heat wave occurs, all we can say at the time is that climate change is loading the dice in favor of such extreme events. At the time of the Russian heat wave, I suspected that human-caused climate change was likely a significant factor, since a study of the world's previous deadliest heat wave, the 2003 European heat wave (Stott et al., 2004), found that human-caused climate change had increased the odds of that event occurring by a factor of four.

An important question to ask is if this type of natural atmospheric blocking event--where the jet stream gets "stuck" in particular contorted shape that contributes to extreme weather events--will increase or decrease in a future warmer climate. I asked climate modeling expert Dr. Ricky Rood, who writes our Climate Change blog, what the models say. His view was, "the physical basis, process, and cause and effect of blocking events are poorly understood in theory and observations and less well understood in models. It is very difficult problem, where the state-of-the-art understanding is low." So, we don't really know what will happen to blocking events in the future climate. Barnes and Hartman (2010) found that the computer models used in the 2007 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report generally showed a decrease in the frequency of blocking events in a future climate. This occurs because the jet stream moves poleward in a future warming climate, and the jet stream is less prone to getting "stuck" in a blocking event when it is closer to the pole. The paper summarizes previous studies on the subject thusly: "Previous studies have found evidence for blocking frequency to decrease with global warming, although they disagree on whether the duration of extreme blocking events will increase or decrease [Sillmann and Croci-Maspoli, 2009; Matsueda et al., 2009]." So, the models give us reason to hope that blocking events leading to extreme weather will decrease in the future, though the uncertainty in this prediction is high. However, the climate models used in 2010 Russian heat wave study showed a rapidly increasing risk of heat waves in western Russia, from less than one percent in 2010, to 10 percent or more by the end of this century. The authors conclude that warming attributable to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations "is very likely to produce more frequent and extreme heat waves later this century," a central finding of the 2007 IPCC report.

References
Barnes, E.A., and D.L., Hartmann, 2010, "Influence of eddy-driven jet latitude on North Atlantic jet persistence and
blocking frequency in CMIP3 integrations", GRL 37, L23802, doi:10.1029/2010GL045700, 2010

Stott, P.A. , D.A. Stone, and M.R. Allen, 2004: Human Contribution to the European heat wave of 2003. Nature, 432(7017), 610-614

I'll have a new post on Saturday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:

Uninterruptible power supply maybe? Just like the one running the cameras? Just guessing...


I was thinking more on the lines of a battery pack or something.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting jeffs713:

Interesting thing I noticed... On the second part of the video... the computer monitor is still ON. Wow.

Uninterruptible power supply maybe? Just like the one running the cameras? Just guessing...
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226

HOOORAAAYYY!!!!!!

Ike lives!!!!!!!
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Quoting NRAamy:
Did you finish all your assignments, by the way. I don't accept late papers.

I thought my extra credit took care of that! I stayed after class, remember Grandpa!!!!!!


AMY!!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some new video (at least new to me; if you've seen it, just ignore it) taken at Alexander Hardware and Small Engine on Old Pascagoula Road in Theodore, Alabama, yesterday.



No thanks; personally, I'll take a hurricane any day. Warnings are nice, you know?

Interesting thing I noticed... On the second part of the video... the computer monitor is still ON. Wow.



And with that.. I'm out for the day.
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Did you finish all your assignments, by the way. I don't accept late papers.

I thought my extra credit took care of that! I stayed after class, remember Grandpa!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some new video (at least new to me; if you've seen it, just ignore it) taken at Alexander Hardware and Small Engine on Old Pascagoula Road in Theodore, Alabama, yesterday.



No thanks; personally, I'll take a hurricane any day. Warnings are nice, you know?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"I find that people with an open mind, usually have a hole in their head" - Groucho Marx (To anyone under 50, no relation to Karl)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Grothar:


Did you just attend one of my lectures????


haha no, I've just grown up listening to those with wisdom, like my parents.

My dad is extremely scientific and intellectual and very smart with electricity, and my mom isn't an expert in anything, but she is very wise and smart.
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Quoting Grothar:
I can see now why they declared an Invest. There is a vital shipping lane through there. It would be important to make all crafts informed of any system in that vicinity. Good call by whoever did it. It is now up on the Navy and CIMSS



Looking at that, it still is an impressive system for March 10th. Might have a small shot.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Post 233

Grothar, I think jed deserves an A with advancement to the next grade.



Yes. He does. Did you finish all your assignments, by the way. I don't accept late papers.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Jedkins01:


haha I knew you were being sarcastic.

Actually though, I don't dismiss Climate Change, rather I dismiss that it is all man caused, and that man's doom is not far into the future. As I said, scientists are the experts, and their data and hard work shows warming, and humans have obviously added C02 which will add warming. We just don't really know how human contribution really interacts with this massively complex climate well enough to be sure of the claims coming out of some. Indeed, that's why I say a scientist may be an expert, but he/she can be biased. You can have the right data and expertise but still interpret it differently.

The article Dr. Masters just posted goes right along with what I am saying. More and more, we are learning new things in science, currently what is becoming more evident, is how Climate Change will actually effect the future. Yes we have Climate models, and we shouldn't just dismiss them. At the same time, we all know in history that weather doesn't exactly follow the trail of computer model expectations.

That being said. My conclusion is, we are harming the environment with emissions, so the goal should be to head towards cleaner technology and less harmful emissions.

To me, an honest scientific answer to Climate Change is that man has effected it from adding CO2 and other things, and the earth has warmed, but we do not know really what the future will bring. It could be bad yes, but to say for sure is not honest.


Ultimately, as someone who is hard at work at becoming a scientist, and one who has loved it all my life, I certainly am not a basher of science. I just know the nature of human beings all to well, that just because you are an expert, and you have your numbers and calculations right, doesn't mean you can't have a bias and can be stubborn, or arrogant, its not like only the less intellectual and less educated are prone to such things. Its just a fact of being human. I myself have changed my views on things throughout my life, because I am always learning more. I have been wrong many times, life is a learning process. It doesn't matter how much of an expert you are, we are all prone to being arrogant, we can all be biased and wrong. I do my best to seek honesty, that means learning and accepting humility, failures, and the fact that know matter how much we know, we always make mistakes and must be open always to correction and stay humble. I seek the same from others as well.

We will always be prone to getting full of ourselves, but when we learn to accept correction and that we make mistakes, and we work together, that's how people accomplish great things.


Did you just attend one of my lectures????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Post 233

Grothar, I think jed deserves an A with advancement to the next grade.

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


My post was sarcastic in case you missed that. My feelings exactly but you saying that is a little puzzling to me. You are the first one to dismiss climate change as nonsense but then you say not to demean scientists? Huh? Make up your mind...


haha I knew you were being sarcastic.

Actually though, I don't dismiss Climate Change, rather I dismiss that it is all man caused, and that man's doom is not far into the future. As I said, scientists are the experts, and their data and hard work shows warming, and humans have obviously added C02 which will add warming. We just don't really know how human contribution really interacts with this massively complex climate well enough to be sure of the claims coming out of some. Indeed, that's why I say a scientist may be an expert, but he/she can be biased. You can have the right data and expertise but still interpret it differently.

The article Dr. Masters just posted goes right along with what I am saying. More and more, we are learning new things in science, currently what is becoming more evident, is how Climate Change will actually effect the future. Yes we have Climate models, and we shouldn't just dismiss them. At the same time, we all know in history that weather doesn't exactly follow the trail of computer model expectations.

That being said. My conclusion is, we are harming the environment with emissions, so the goal should be to head towards cleaner technology and less harmful emissions.

To me, an honest scientific answer to Climate Change is that man has effected it from adding CO2 and other things, and the earth has warmed, but we do not know really what the future will bring. It could be bad yes, but to say for sure is not honest.


Ultimately, as someone who is hard at work at becoming a scientist, and one who has loved it all my life, I certainly am not a basher of science. I just know the nature of human beings all to well, that just because you are an expert, and you have your numbers and calculations right, doesn't mean you can't have a bias and can be stubborn, or arrogant, its not like only the less intellectual and less educated are prone to such things. Its just a fact of being human. I myself have changed my views on things throughout my life, because I am always learning more. I have been wrong many times, life is a learning process. It doesn't matter how much of an expert you are, we are all prone to being arrogant, we can all be biased and wrong. I do my best to seek honesty, that means learning and accepting humility, failures, and the fact that know matter how much we know, we always make mistakes and must be open always to correction and stay humble. I seek the same from others as well.

We will always be prone to getting full of ourselves, but when we learn to accept correction and that we make mistakes, and we work together, that's how people accomplish great things.
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FLOOD EVENT

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
I heard that it cost the NHC almost $42 to declare 90L as an Invest. What a waste of money.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting PlazaRed:


Thanks a lot,
for baling me out on the base confusion.
I'm English but we do have translation problems some times.
If you are over here on the 'green road' anytime We'll get you a case of Rioja wine compliments of the ''Red'' {Network}


Sounds like a deal. When you used the term "Swedish chap" the other night, it was a dead give-away. I have stopped using that term.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting CybrTeddy:
And I see this sucker is still swirling around.. imo this if anything should be 90L.
Thats just a ULL. Notice the wet side and the dry side, along with a front dragging out to the S then SW (so its cold-core, too). I also doubt there is much of a surface circulation.
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I can see now why they declared an Invest. There is a vital shipping lane through there. It would be important to make all crafts informed of any system in that vicinity. Good call by whoever did it. It is now up on the Navy and CIMSS

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Cochise000:


Context? Did he or did he not state that the era of constant electricity is over in the UK? The link you provided stated exactly that, which is what I said in the beginning. Your link is a pdf of a news article.
By the definition I was applying, "context" means using ONLY the words the person being quoted is actually saying, and not applying any reporting bias to their statements.

The way your post was made, readers were led to believe that he stated that in the near future, a quasi-governmental agency would choose who would and would not get power. In the actual article, he says "in 2020 or 2030"... which is NOT mentioned in your post.
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226. IKE

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow, I'm going to have to have a blog update.

A South Atlantic and a North Atlantic invest out there at the same time, in March. A first for sure.

90L has no chance of development, so don't expect to see Sub-Tropical Storm Arlene anytime soon. 9OQ has a decent chance of becoming a Sub-TS. I remember saying a few days ago watch the south Atlantic for development, sure enough..

Invest 90L.


Invest 90Q


If 90Q develops, it would be the 2nd storm of that season as there was a sub-tropical system in November, and Anita last March in the 2009-10 season. The South Atlantic needs a season. Who would monitor it? The NHC?
Downcaster!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


A few of us came to your rescue on the Moron issue. LOL It got straightened out. They were not aware it was an American Air Force Base. I hope you saw the comments. I shall try to post more image of 90L for you if I find any good ones. Because of its position, there are no good images of it yet.


Thanks a lot,
for baling me out on the base confusion.
I'm English but we do have translation problems some times.
If you are over here on the 'green road' anytime We'll get you a case of Rioja wine compliments of the ''Red'' {Network}
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
And I see this sucker is still swirling around.. imo this if anything should be 90L.
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Quoting Skyepony:
I thought I mentioned it first.. Was tired of the banter about how we should be discussing the swirl in central Atlantic & I was like but this other swirl WSW of Spain is so much more interesting:)

90L



I was only teasing Skye. When you posted the first image, I asked. "Is that a swirl" I was just doing the "3rd Grade routine, I saw it first. LOL I wonder why no one else commented. Maybe because it was almost 2:00 AM?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
90Q is pretty close to the coast however..
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220. Skyepony (Mod)
I thought I mentioned it first.. Was tired of the banter about how we should be discussing the swirl in central Atlantic & I was like but this other swirl WSW of Spain is so much more interesting:)

90L

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37408
Quoting PlazaRed:



Senor Grothar,
You are 100% correct, you saw it first and drew our attention to it about a week ago. Then I put on to the site a general question as to if anybody knew where it was going to?
Skye replied directly to me on your site saying it was lightly to drift off WSW if I remember correctly and then 'die.'
Your posted pictures of it are magnificent and we really appreciate them as we don't have any local systems and the weather vane on our church got blown over by a tornado last year. I looked on the Spanish TVE last night to see what they might have to say and unfortunately the news and weather had been cancelled because Barcelona were playing Arsenal at football so no news. TVE ES? {etc etc}
After our little problem with the 'Moron' word a few days ago we have to be careful about not getting at odds here!
We could name it Gaddafi? as it might turn out a loser!


A few of us came to your rescue on the Moron issue. LOL It got straightened out. They were not aware it was an American Air Force Base. I hope you saw the comments. I shall try to post more image of 90L for you if I find any good ones. Because of its position, there are no good images of it yet.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392
Quoting Jedkins01:


The more I dive into this meteorology degree, and its just a bachelors degree, not a graduate, the more I get annoyed with blue collar people saying scientists don't know what they are talking about.

Ok, scientists can get full of themselves, they are human, and they can have a bias, and they can make mistakes. But to judge them on knowledge or expertise is stupid unless you have the same level of education.


My post was sarcastic in case you missed that. My feelings exactly but you saying that is a little puzzling to me. You are the first one to dismiss climate change as nonsense but then you say not to demean scientists? Huh? Make up your mind...
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Those palms are actually designed for hurricanes, the fronds fall off much easier so the tree itself is more likely to survive. They can just grow back later.


Jed that is exactly what they did after Wilma.. they all looked like they just got a "buzz" haircut
but later the fronds grew back again.
they all survived.
They are native to the tropics and South Florida.
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Quoting Grothar:


When Sky and I posted all the images and data on this a few days, no one responded at all. Skye and I did a whole segment on this system. I saw it first. LOL Go ahead, go back and look.



Senor Grothar,
You are 100% correct, you saw it first and drew our attention to it about a week ago. Then I put on to the site a general question as to if anybody knew where it was going to?
Skye replied directly to me on your site saying it was lightly to drift off WSW if I remember correctly and then 'die.'
Your posted pictures of it are magnificent and we really appreciate them as we don't have any local systems and the weather vane on our church got blown over by a tornado last year. I looked on the Spanish TVE last night to see what they might have to say and unfortunately the news and weather had been cancelled because Barcelona were playing Arsenal at football so no news. TVE ES? {etc etc}
After our little problem with the 'Moron' word a few days ago we have to be careful about not getting at odds here!
We could name it Gaddafi? as it might turn out a loser!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I'm going to have to have a blog update.

A South Atlantic and a North Atlantic invest out there at the same time, in March. A first for sure.

90L has no chance of development, so don't expect to see Sub-Tropical Storm Arlene anytime soon. 9OQ has a decent chance of becoming a Sub-TS. I remember saying a few days ago watch the south Atlantic for development, sure enough..

Invest 90L.


Invest 90Q


If 90Q develops, it would be the 2nd storm of that season as there was a sub-tropical system in November, and Anita last March in the 2009-10 season. The South Atlantic needs a season. Who would monitor it? The NHC?
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Quoting jeffs713:
Of course, those fronts also become missiles during a hurricane...


They sure do, we don't have those type of palms up here though, there are a few royal palms put in by businesses, but they realize they suffer during the winters which are too cool for them.

Here usually the whole tree just comes down.
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Quoting Jax82:



Why hello there, Loop Current! Why are you pointing at us like that?
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211. Jax82


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Quoting Jedkins01:


Those palms are actually designed for hurricanes, the fronds fall off much easier so the tree itself is more likely to survive. They can just grow back later.
Of course, those fronts also become missiles during a hurricane...
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Quoting SQUAWK:
Rhut Roh! They will be coming out of the woodwork now.

Don't worry, I bought a case of Troll-B-Gon spray over the winter.
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Quoting seflagamma:
I got 1/2" of rain at my house here in Broward and a lot of wind ... a bunch of Royal Palm fronds are blown down all over the place.. they are very heavy and not very flexible so they snap easily in high wind...


Those palms are actually designed for hurricanes, the fronds fall off much easier so the tree itself is more likely to survive. They can just grow back later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rhut Roh! They will be coming out of the woodwork now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I got 1/2" of rain at my house here in Broward and a lot of wind ... a bunch of Royal Palm fronds are blown down all over the place.. they are very heavy and not very flexible so they snap easily in high wind...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Come on man...those silly PHD's mean nothing, remember? Kinda like climate scientists...LOL! Top O' The Day to ya man!


The more I dive into this meteorology degree, and its just a bachelors degree, not a graduate, the more I get annoyed with blue collar people saying scientists don't know what they are talking about.

Ok, scientists can get full of themselves, they are human, and they can have a bias, and they can make mistakes. But to judge them on knowledge or expertise is stupid unless you have the same level of education.
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Quoting seflagamma:
WOW, it is Press's Birthday, my 26th wedding anniversary and now
Dr Jeff has stop by twice to let us know we have somethings to watch already!

Doesn't get any better than this!

smiling..

will it bring some rain to South Fla?


I am not going to leave my post on the previous page as comment 200! LOL
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umm 90L?? Wow.. and what's that near Bermuda to??
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Quoting beell:
1705 FORT LAUDERDALE
BROWARD FL 2612 8015
A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS OBSERVED IN A PARKING LOT AT FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LIGHT POLE AND A COUPLE OF SIGNS WERE KNOCKED DOWN. NO OTH (MFL)

1719 KEY BISCAYNE
MIAMI-DADE FL 2569 8016
INTERSERCTION OF RICKENBACKER CAUSEWAY AND US 1. NOAA HRD EMPLOYEE REPORTED SPINNING DEBRIS AND CAR SHAKING WITH FUNNEL CLOUD TOUCHING DOWN OVER LAND IN THE VICINITY OF (MFL)
SPC Storm Reports


They also had some damage at the golf tournment at Doral. I only had some gusty winds.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Wrong Nea, it's not gonna spin up into anything, it's sitting on top of ice cold water. End of story


Meteorology is very complex, you shouldn't say things like that, even more so since you don't have the education to make that argument either.
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WOW, it is Press's Birthday, my 26th wedding anniversary and now
Dr Jeff has stop by twice to let us know we have somethings to watch already!

Doesn't get any better than this!

smiling..

will it bring some rain to South Fla?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
199. beell
1705 FORT LAUDERDALE
BROWARD FL 2612 8015
A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS OBSERVED IN A PARKING LOT AT FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A LIGHT POLE AND A COUPLE OF SIGNS WERE KNOCKED DOWN. NO OTH (MFL)

1719 KEY BISCAYNE
MIAMI-DADE FL 2569 8016
INTERSERCTION OF RICKENBACKER CAUSEWAY AND US 1. NOAA HRD EMPLOYEE REPORTED SPINNING DEBRIS AND CAR SHAKING WITH FUNNEL CLOUD TOUCHING DOWN OVER LAND IN THE VICINITY OF (MFL)
SPC Storm Reports
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Blob watching season has begun, and for all those invest bashers we have to remember this is a subtropical system we know a whole lot less about them and I wouldn't be tremendously surprised if one formed in high shear and cool temperatures. We've had Epsilon become a hurricane in conditions that weren't much better. and it's looking pretty good now, still I say only 10% chance of advisories
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Quoting PlazaRed:


No I live just north of Gibraltar but we had 5 inches of rain and hail here Sunday loads of flooding and more inches yesterday, I've been watching this thing form for a week now and asked you about it a few days ago.
We are a bit north of it now but Skye said it would fade out near Morocco. You've had a few posts on the 'swirl' as you called it a few days ago.It might make a mess of the Skies over the Canary Islands if it gets too close, been lousy weather here all week.
Wish I was a bit nearer the center to take you some photos!


When Sky and I posted all the images and data on this a few days, no one responded at all. Skye and I did a whole segment on this system. I saw it first. LOL Go ahead, go back and look.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25392

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.