Trace radioactivity from Japan likely over the Western U.S. today
Traces of radioactive substances emitted by Japan's damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant will likely arrive over the Western U.S. today, carried by the prevailing west to east winds that have blown over the Pacific Ocean during the past week. Rainfall is expected over California this weekend, and it is likely that the rain will wash radioactive particles out of the air to the surface in quantities that will be detectable at several locations. I want to strongly emphasize that the radioactivity from Japan arriving over the U.S. over the next few days poses absolutely no threat to human health, and is present in only miniscule quantities. The radioactive plumes from Japan have had seven days to dilute over a 5000+ mile journey, and have been subject to deposition to the ocean due to gravity and rainfall along the way. Natural radiation is present in our environment every day, and the extra radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant will cause much less than a 1% increase this background radiation. Radioactive particles from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 were detected in North America ten days after that event, and caused no harmful effects. The radiation from Japan over U.S. during the next week should be at levels even lower than the Chernobyl fallout.
Figure 1. Backward trajectories for the air arriving at the surface (red line) and 300 meters altitude (blue line) in San Francisco, California on Saturday, March 19, at 11am PDT. According to the latest run of the GFS model, the air arriving in San Franciso tomorrow will have originated near the surface in northern Japan last Saturday, when radioactive emissions from the Fukushima nuclear plant began. The radioactive particles arriving in California will be in trace quantities, and will have no harmful effects on human health. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant continue to move offshore to the east over the Pacific Ocean today, thanks to predominantly west winds blowing at 5 - 15 mph. These winds are being driven by the clockwise flow of air around a surface high pressure system centered just southeast of Tokyo. As this high pressure system moves northeastwards, parallel to the Japanese coast, today through Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today could wind up over Alaska after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.
Of much greater concern is the possibility of dangerous level of radiation over Japan. The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan may occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show winds on Sunday may carry radiation from the disaster site southwards over Tokyo. A low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan on Sunday, and this rain is likely to remove most of the radioactivity from the air where rain and radioactivity are both present. The winds associated with this low are difficult to predict at this time, since the winds will be light and variable.
Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 4 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 19, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plumes are predicted to move over California and Mexico at high altitude. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 4. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Sunday, March 20, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught northerly winds, and the two lower altitude plumes move over Tokyo by 6 UTC on Monday, March 21. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Sunday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant
The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.
Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So because you think they are nuke nuts the network that interviews them should be de-funded?
As long as manufactured power is required to maintain those plants, this is a bad idea.
adios amigos.
day is done.
WOW..some terrific images...TY :)
The 2010 heatwave (see at the right side of this picture) shattered all the records in terms of the deviation from the average temperatures. (Credit: ETH Zürich)
ScienceDaily (Mar. 18, 2011) — An international research team involving ETH Zurich has compared the hot summers of 2003 and 2010 in detail for the first time. Last year's heatwave across Eastern Europe and Russia was unprecedented in every respect: Europe has never experienced so large summer temperature anomalies in the last 500 years.
The summer of 2010 was extreme. Russia was especially hard hit by the extraordinary heat: in Moscow, daytime temperatures of 38.2°C were recorded and it didn't get much cooler at night. Devastating fires caused by the dry conditions covered an area of 1 million hectares, causing crop failures of around 25%; the total damage ran to about USD 15 billion. Even though passengers were also collapsing on trains in Germany in 2010 because the air-con units had failed in the heat, the general perception is still that the summer of 2003 was the most extreme -- among Western Europeans at least. An international research team involving ETH Zurich has now compared the two heatwaves and just published their findings in Science.
Area fifty times bigger than Switzerland
The 2010 heatwave shattered all the records both in terms of the deviation from the average temperatures and its spatial extent.
Link
;
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8eB-vn23bw
check this outt
Sign of California Quake to Come
, make lots of sense, jmo
If you thought they were balanced it would be okay to fund them then? And if they don't have great content?
Catastrophic Events in the History of Life: Toward a New Understanding of Mass Extinctions in the Fossil Record - Part I
David B. Weinreb
Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistry & Geology and Geophysics, Yale University
weinreb@jyi.org
This article is Part One of a two-part series exploring the historical changes in the theories of extinction and evolution.
Introduction: Who shall live?
humour quoteThe history of life, as Charles Darwin taught us over a century ago, is a struggle for survival. New organisms emerge and flourish because they are somehow better equipped for their environments than the creatures they replace. Extinction is evolution's way of weeding out those who are simply not able to compete with more specialized or more advanced organisms.
For the last 600 million years, this is how the saga of life unfolded: new forms gradually evolved and replaced more archaic, less successful forms, eventually driving them into extinction. Nearly every organism that has ever existed is now extinct.
Geeez....scary stuff, and Cavuto is known to have more credible guest than most. Cavuto is my favorite newscaster.
This site was built around FireFox prettymuch. Try it, free ya know, and works well. Site performance can vary from one browser to another. It even works well on this 2002 vintage old laptop I am tuning up for the critters. Hey it was a 2.8 Ghz then :)
Time for me to go to bed. I wrote something and posted it before I realized you weren't who I was thinking of when I wrote it. DOH!
loses something when the joke is about the wrong person :|
New Technique Enables Much Faster Production of Inexpensive Solar Cells
ScienceDaily (Mar. 17, 2011) — TU Delft has demonstrated that the speed at which inexpensive solar cells are produced can be increased by a factor of ten -- and that this can be achieved without any detriment to the energy yield of the cells. This will almost certainly result in a further reduction in the price of the cells, which are made of amorphous silicon...
Link
Electric Grid Reliability: Increasing Energy Storage in Vanadium Redox Batteries by 70 Percent
ScienceDaily (Mar. 17, 2011) — Though considered a promising large-scale energy storage device, the vanadium redox battery's use has been limited by its inability to work well in a wide range of temperatures and its high cost. But new research indicates that modifying the battery's electrolyte solution significantly improves its performance. So much so that the upgraded battery could improve the electric grid's reliability and help connect more wind turbines and solar panels to the grid.
Link
E. Coli Engineered to Produce Record-Setting Amounts of Alternative Fuel
ScienceDaily (Mar. 17, 2011) — Researchers at UCLA's Henry Samueli School of Engineering and Applied Science have developed a way to produce normal butanol -- often proposed as a "greener" fuel alternative to diesel and gasoline -- from bacteria at rates significantly higher than those achieved using current production method...
Link
Ha, I have never been so insulated (spelled correctly) in my whole life. I am not nearly the vintage of those you reference :)
What are the odds? US nuke plants ranked by quake risk
The problem is the image in post 396 - too wide.
Tools/compatibility view fixes it.
Also, it's better to show 50 comments/page vs. 200, as the problem disappears by itself on your next page.
ty, but cannot accept! There are many good techs on here, it boils down to who feels like trying to help at that particular moment ;-)
Well...in that case...DontAnnoyMe = Kindest Top Blog Tech..;}
LOL, ya got me on that one :P
How come he never made part two Dufus? There must have been a lot of Vnemployment in Hollywood
I'm here, I'm here. Just enjoying how some many misinterpret what is written and the snide little remarks that go back and forth. Better than watching Judge Judy.
DAM, I thought that stuff only goes on on Classic WU. lol
I resemble that remark. Only have 144 episodes to catch up on.
"Might choke Arti...won't choke Stimey" now will see how old u r....hehe
What season are you up to?
Why you little Rascal You!
Yep...you're real old...lol.....
I was in love with Darla.
Did you know "Alfalfa" was in "It's A Wonderful Life"?
Now DAM , you just watched the remakes...not the originals /;]
No, I didn't, can you believe that?
You can throw out any old movie or TV line and either GeoffWPB or I will know what it is. Go ahead!!
Well shoot...when I'm put on the spot I cant think !!
Looking around, neat website posted by Watts showing the data from a Geiger counter in Tokyo.
(Cue the moronic flamers, though I haven't been to WUWT in a month or so)
Here is the site: http://www.denphone.com/denphone-tokyo-office-gei ger-counter
Radiation readings over the last 4 days in Tokyo not changing much.
Clint Eastwood, Dirty Harry LOL
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