Trace radioactivity from Japan likely over the Western U.S. today
Traces of radioactive substances emitted by Japan's damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant will likely arrive over the Western U.S. today, carried by the prevailing west to east winds that have blown over the Pacific Ocean during the past week. Rainfall is expected over California this weekend, and it is likely that the rain will wash radioactive particles out of the air to the surface in quantities that will be detectable at several locations. I want to strongly emphasize that the radioactivity from Japan arriving over the U.S. over the next few days poses absolutely no threat to human health, and is present in only miniscule quantities. The radioactive plumes from Japan have had seven days to dilute over a 5000+ mile journey, and have been subject to deposition to the ocean due to gravity and rainfall along the way. Natural radiation is present in our environment every day, and the extra radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant will cause much less than a 1% increase this background radiation. Radioactive particles from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 were detected in North America ten days after that event, and caused no harmful effects. The radiation from Japan over U.S. during the next week should be at levels even lower than the Chernobyl fallout.
Figure 1. Backward trajectories for the air arriving at the surface (red line) and 300 meters altitude (blue line) in San Francisco, California on Saturday, March 19, at 11am PDT. According to the latest run of the GFS model, the air arriving in San Franciso tomorrow will have originated near the surface in northern Japan last Saturday, when radioactive emissions from the Fukushima nuclear plant began. The radioactive particles arriving in California will be in trace quantities, and will have no harmful effects on human health. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant continue to move offshore to the east over the Pacific Ocean today, thanks to predominantly west winds blowing at 5 - 15 mph. These winds are being driven by the clockwise flow of air around a surface high pressure system centered just southeast of Tokyo. As this high pressure system moves northeastwards, parallel to the Japanese coast, today through Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today could wind up over Alaska after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.
Of much greater concern is the possibility of dangerous level of radiation over Japan. The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan may occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show winds on Sunday may carry radiation from the disaster site southwards over Tokyo. A low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan on Sunday, and this rain is likely to remove most of the radioactivity from the air where rain and radioactivity are both present. The winds associated with this low are difficult to predict at this time, since the winds will be light and variable.
Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 4 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 19, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plumes are predicted to move over California and Mexico at high altitude. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 4. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Sunday, March 20, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught northerly winds, and the two lower altitude plumes move over Tokyo by 6 UTC on Monday, March 21. This is a low confidence forecast, as winds are expected to be light and somewhat variable on Sunday over Japan. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant
The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.
Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So you're a nuclear physicist/theologian? Or do you just "pourtray" one here?
Being an evangelical agnostic/buddhist cannibal, I guess I'll be smoking a turd in purgatory too, huh?
I heard brain surgery isn't that hard either. As long as one has a "heads up" on it. I may try some next week.
LOL
Steady hands, a great deal of play time in Milton-Bradley's Operation and a willingness to play with mushy gray stuff, what the hey?
This morning the local met on NBC-2 said the Gulf temp was 66 off Fort Myers Beach.
The operation was a complete success but, the patient died? They don't allow me to play with sharp instruments any more.
Did you find your keys?
LOL
Actually, "smoking a turd in purgatory" is George Carlin quote (poor George, apparently he's turning on a spit somewhere on the 3rd level of hell).
"You'll smoke a turd in purgatory for that one, Johnny!"
Having been indoctrinated Catholic, I always found that one funny, and as for better things to smoke, have you heard about purgatory? We'll be lucky to find that to smoke...LOL
"Can you jump up and down for me, Mr. Smith?"
"Ka-ching, ka-ching!"
"Damn it! Okay Mr. Smith, back on the table...the keys to my Beemer are about three ribs down on the left and I have a tee time in an hour..."
Grothar knows me through emails. Ask him his opinion of that. Why would you think that I would be one or both of the others? I will change my posts, if you truly believe that. Or not post at all, if that is what you wish.
Nope...Rookie ok..IMHO....dont judge others....If we all thought alike, would be BORING world.
Nothing on the gieger counters.
No, Floodman. LOL I should have been more specific. Grothar had lost his car keys and I was asking him if he had found them.
You bet he did...at a time when the majority of the population still thought that disease was caused primarily by bad air, that the earth was 5000 some odd years old, that mice generated spontaneously from piles of dirty rags and that one could, with the aid of certain arcane symbols, chemical elements and tubing make gold from lead. Bear in mind also that at the time he was alive, most believed in witches, werewolves and vampires. That the man was able to get any serious work done is a testament to his genius and ability to separate fact from fiction.
LOL...sorry...got a little carried away there
:)
I missed most of George's stuff.... but I always enjoyed his shows when I was able to see them on HBO....
a God complex helps too....Hey, we've come full circle!
I know Rookie. He DEFINITELY is not a troll. Sorry, there was a misunderstanding there Rookie. And I found my keys, but now I can't find my glasses. Hope everyone is fine. The Doc had a nice blog today.
Ok. I can see where that came from. I was questioning RecordSeason's strong post concerning his religious beliefs. Trust me. I will NEVER try to influence anyone in how they should conduct themselves in their religion or in what their religion should be. I asked RecordSeason a simple question. What he does with the question is not my concern. I was not even seeking a reply from him.
Hey, Flood, leave my friend Rookie alone or I'll make you drop and do 20. LOL
I stand corrected
Lost your glasses there, buddy? What is that on top of your head?
Link
The main isotopes of plutonium are:
Pu-238, (half-lifea 88 years, alpha decay)
Pu-239, fissile (half-life 24,000 years, alpha decay)
Pu-240, fertile (half-life 6,560 years, alpha decay)
Pu-241, fissile (half-life 14.4 years, beta decay)
Pu-242, (half-life 374,000 years, alpha decay)
The most common isotope formed in a typical nuclear reactor is the fissile Pu-239 isotope, formed by neutron capture from U-238 (followed by beta decay), and which yields much the same energy as the fission of U-235. Well over half of the plutonium created in the reactor core is 'burned' in situ and is responsible for about one third of the total heat output of a light water reactor (LWR). Of the rest, about one sixth through neutron capture becomes Pu-240 (and Pu-241). The approximately 1.15% of plutonium in the spent fuel removed from a commercial LWR power reactor (burn-up of 42 GWd/t) consists of about 53% Pu-239, 25% Pu-240, 15% Pu-241, 5% Pu-242 and 2% of Pu-238, which is the main source of heat and radioactivity
.......
Toxicity and health effects
Despite being toxic both chemically and because of its ionising radiation, plutonium is far from being "the most toxic substance on Earth" or so hazardous that "a speck can kill". On both counts there are substances in daily use that, per unit of mass, have equal or greater chemical toxicity (arsenic, cyanide, caffeine) and radiotoxicity (smoke detectors).
There are three principal routes by which plutonium can get into human beings who might be exposed to it:
Ingestion.
Contamination of open wounds.
Inhalation.
Ingestion is not a significant hazard, because plutonium passing through the gastro-intestinal tract is poorly absorbed and is expelled from the body before it can do harm.
I don't care what your political beliefs are. THAT is funny!
Whats the general rule of thumb with a time line of when a volcano might become active after a earthquake swarm? A few weeks to months?
+eternity in heaven!
It's OK jitter! Don't know if you are fortunate enough to be married, but there are always misunderstandings. Like when Mrs. Grothar asks me why her new dress doesn't fit. I sometimes forget to say, "They must have mismarked the size" It happens to all of us.
Check the top of your head, then the bridge of your nose. You know, one time I jumped off a boat into the ocean with my glasses on because I forgot I had them on. :)
That, sir, is one of the many reasons I like. You have an uncanny ability to find your way through the darkness. Even without your glasses! An ancient art?
I thought we settled THAT when Alexander promoted me in front of you...I did end up with garrison duty in Afghanistan though
I will NOT comment on that image other than to say "Wow, what a great sign!"
ROFLMAO
Yes, Socrates always told me to use humor as much as possible, especially if you are forced to drink hemlock.
I don't honestly think there is a rule of thumb; St Helens had a number of distinct swarms starting a few YEARS (1977 I think?) before the last eruption and had one just a few hours prior to the big eruption.
What's happening in Japan isn't strictly a swarm; it's the aftershocks from a large seimic event. The thing a lot of people aren;t getting is that the larger the seismic event, the larger the potential aftershocks (and the greater the number of them)
Don't have to worry about that one. My jumping days are over. I think my last jump was back in the 1970's. But thanks for the advice.
In this blog, I've seen bloggers call wetbacks, roaches to Latins.
I've seen bloggers classified themselves as American citizens "From the north", suggesting that American citizens from the islands are inferior.... I've seen comments like a black is not supposed to give orders to a white American...
And now your prejudiced comment against religious groups including Jehovahs Witnesses..
I agree with you, THIS IS NOT the blog to talk about religion...
I have black, white, American, Latin, Witnesses, Catholic, Buddhist, Pentecostal, Baptist, communist, atheists, skinny, fat friends and family; And I really don't judge them or make jokes about their beliefs or the way they look and think...
I personally are against and do no approve Racism and religious prejudice and coments like the one that started this.... And I hope the Administrator does the same....
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