An early start to hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.
Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.
Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.
The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)
Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.
Jeff Masters
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And the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season...6 month....bloggers convention, officially begins.
SUBSIDENCE-CAPPING PROVIDED BY THE
DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC SCALE RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOTED
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WAS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND WILL ADVANCE SW AND
WILL BRUSH THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THE
CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...THE FEATURE WILL
SUPPORT SUBTLE MID LEVEL COOLING/WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND WILL
PRODUCE WEAK FORCING/ASCENT AS DEPICTED BY MODEL 700-300 MB Q
VECTORS AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE. FURTHER...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BAND OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS STRONG AS 40-50
KNOTS OVER THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC LOW
LEVEL N/NW FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO
ADVANCE INLAND...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING
MLCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES.
thanks Ike I'm glad I could start it off for you! hahaha
There was a poster with a similar style of writing and the same gratuitously offensive attitude last year who used the phrase 'haters gotts hate'. Looks like he's back.
Been watching satellite imagery throughout the day and it appears to be getting somewhat better organized as the day progresses on. Noticing some nice inflow coming into the low from pretty much all directions this afternoon.
Its a low in relation to the surrounding atmosphere. I would hardly call 1016 a low, but when compared to the massive ridge of high pressure that it is currently "bumping up" against, then I guess you can call it a low, for now.
dont tell me you already have the first one coming to florida panhandle, LOL! Get ready as I vote you President of the convention! Hehehe
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Ah, I hate it when the diurnal solar correlation is miscalculated.
I spent about 30 minutes one day.. just looking some of those words up.
I'm trying not to say anything about the avatar LOL
So, after a brief change to north-east path and no development, the CMC has gone trigger happy again. That track is starting to seem more likely though.
I love that chart. I been waiting since last year to see it again. This means the season is here!!!!
June has eyes?
Annular?
Thanks ORCA....needed a refresher
ROFL.. try harder :)
Click NGP in tropical areas..... https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html
Ah, the good ole CMC model back at its same old tricks again I see. lol
Most likely not.
Hurricane eyes?
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.05.2011
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.0N 80.2W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.06.2011 13.0N 80.2W WEAK
00UTC 03.06.2011 13.9N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.06.2011 14.6N 78.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.06.2011 15.1N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.06.2011 16.1N 78.7W WEAK STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.06.2011 15.9N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.06.2011 17.1N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.06.2011 17.9N 78.6W MODERATE STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.06.2011 18.4N 79.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
LOL. What about Wally?
LOL you know what i'm gonna say it......
The Bruins will win the Cup, 'nuff said.
LOL! just joking!
By the Caymans...moving WNW...on the end of the run.
Could be.
It'll be hard considering it'll have to fight with the hostile conditions. It's a tiny thing too.
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