2011 the most expensive year for natural disasters in history
An exceptional accumulation of very severe natural catastrophes, including earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, tornadoes and flooding in the U.S., and flooding in Australia and New Zealand, make 2011 the highest-ever loss year on record, even after the first half-year, said re-insurance giant Munich Re in a press release this week. The $265 billion in economic losses accumulated this year exceeds the previous record year, 2005, which had $220 billion in damage (mostly due to $125 billion in damage from Hurricane Katrina.) Unlike 2005, this year's losses have been headlined by two huge earthquakes--the March 11 quake in Japan ($210 billion) and the February 22 quake in New Zealand ($20 billion.) But with the Northern Hemisphere's hurricane season just beginning, this year's record losses may see a significant boost from hurricanes.
Figure 1. Stunned survivors survey the destruction left by the EF-4 Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April. With a price tag estimated at $2 billion, this was the single most expensive tornado of all-time. The record stood only three weeks, being surpassed by the $3 billion in damage from the Joplin Missouri, tornado. The two tornado outbreaks that spawned these tornadoes rank as the globe's 3rd and 5th most destructive natural disasters so far this year. Image from an anonmous posting to Twitter.
Climate change and damage from weather-related disasters
In an interview with MSNBC, Peter Hoppe, who runs Munich Re's Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Center, said that while the damage trend for earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions is fairly stable, damage from severe weather events is on the upswing, even after factoring in increases in population and wealth. He cited natural events such as La Niña and El Niño as factors in some of the damaging weather events, but added that warming temperatures appear to be adding a layer "on top" of that natural variability. In particular, he noted that the floods this January in Australia--that nation's most expensive natural disaster of all time--occurred when ocean temperatures off the coast were at record warm levels. That meant "more evaporation and higher potential for these extreme downpours", and "it can only be explained by global warming."
Figure 2. The five most expensive natural disasters of 2011, as estimated by Munich Re.
However, the there is a lot of controversy on whether economic losses due to weather-related disasters is increasing due to climate change. A 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Netherlands researcher Laurens Bouwer titled, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", looked at 22 disaster loss studies in various parts of the world. All of the studies showed an increase in damages from weather-related disasters in recent decades. The big question is, how much of this increase in damage was due to increases in population, and the fact people are getting wealthier, and thus have more stuff to get damaged? Fourteen of the 22 studies concluded that there were no trends in damage after correcting for increases in wealth and population, while eight of the studies did find upward trends even after such corrections. In all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses."
Bouwer's review of these 22 disaster loss studies was critiqued this year by Neville Nicholls of the School of Geography and Environmental Science of Montash University, Australia. His analysis, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, notes that Bouwer's study of damage losses did not include the impact of improvements in building codes and weather forecasting. We can expect both factors to have significantly reduced damages due to storms in recent years. Nicholls concludes, "The absence of an upward trend in normalized losses may be due to a balance between reduced vulnerability (from improved weather forecasting and building techniques) and increased frequency or intensity of weather hazards." In his reply to Nicholls' comments, Bouwer states that Nicholls "provides no support that these factors have actually contributed to a substantial reduction in losses over the period of the last decades."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I know Boho, wish that.. ridge/cap/high....would get the heck outta Dodge...
File image
and
Flat neutral conditions all the way to October with la Niña making another appearance... That cant be good. :\
He? Aren't typhoon names mostly objects or places? Just throwing that out there, lol.
I want some! We had about 22 drops today ...
Send it this way!
Interesting that we have a higher percentage for the wave in the CATL than the area in the Caribbean.
I'm in Jefferson County. Looks like the rain is headed west.
Looks like its still there to me
18z GFS 72hrs
72hr voritcity shows the wave just off the lesser Antilles, right under the shear zone created by the TUTT.
I mean there's no doubt an upper level anticyclone will follow the wave and nudge under the TUTT a bit, but the TUTT will still be there for the most part. As a result, upper level conditions wont be ideal for development...that's why this wave currently has zero model support. Maybe when it nears central America it will have a chance, but that's a ways out.
Awesome, hopefully some hits here
12z ECMWF 144 hrs.
NOGAPS 120 hours, same area but just a light spinup
That might come from the tropical wave near 70W. Upper-level winds will certainly be favorable (though not anticyclonic), and it's not far out, so it's something to watch.
I hope you get some. We could all use a few days of rain here in Texas right now.
ABNT20 KNHC 142335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
DRIFTING WESTWARD. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF IT BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
MARK
8.88N45.88W
Looping it, it seems to be trough split originated.
That's because there isn't one. However, it is forecast to return over the next few days.
After looping the NOGAPS, it seems to be that way. Perhaps a similar situation to Nate/Ophelia in 2005, where a single trough split spawned two distinct entities which ultimately became tropical cyclones.
Just noticed it myself, actually. Weird.
yes it is! Looks like 60% chance for my area tomorrow.
This year is continuing just like last year. Everything is moving west. No northward motions.
It's about time too!
Meanwhile, we got further rain showers over the western portion of New Providence today, some locally heavy.
We just had a line move through. A little of this every evening would be great! Hope everyone gets some. :)
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