2011 the most expensive year for natural disasters in history
An exceptional accumulation of very severe natural catastrophes, including earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, tornadoes and flooding in the U.S., and flooding in Australia and New Zealand, make 2011 the highest-ever loss year on record, even after the first half-year, said re-insurance giant Munich Re in a press release this week. The $265 billion in economic losses accumulated this year exceeds the previous record year, 2005, which had $220 billion in damage (mostly due to $125 billion in damage from Hurricane Katrina.) Unlike 2005, this year's losses have been headlined by two huge earthquakes--the March 11 quake in Japan ($210 billion) and the February 22 quake in New Zealand ($20 billion.) But with the Northern Hemisphere's hurricane season just beginning, this year's record losses may see a significant boost from hurricanes.
Figure 1. Stunned survivors survey the destruction left by the EF-4 Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado of April. With a price tag estimated at $2 billion, this was the single most expensive tornado of all-time. The record stood only three weeks, being surpassed by the $3 billion in damage from the Joplin Missouri, tornado. The two tornado outbreaks that spawned these tornadoes rank as the globe's 3rd and 5th most destructive natural disasters so far this year. Image from an anonmous posting to Twitter.
Climate change and damage from weather-related disasters
In an interview with MSNBC, Peter Hoppe, who runs Munich Re's Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Center, said that while the damage trend for earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions is fairly stable, damage from severe weather events is on the upswing, even after factoring in increases in population and wealth. He cited natural events such as La Niña and El Niño as factors in some of the damaging weather events, but added that warming temperatures appear to be adding a layer "on top" of that natural variability. In particular, he noted that the floods this January in Australia--that nation's most expensive natural disaster of all time--occurred when ocean temperatures off the coast were at record warm levels. That meant "more evaporation and higher potential for these extreme downpours", and "it can only be explained by global warming."
Figure 2. The five most expensive natural disasters of 2011, as estimated by Munich Re.
However, the there is a lot of controversy on whether economic losses due to weather-related disasters is increasing due to climate change. A 2010 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by Netherlands researcher Laurens Bouwer titled, "Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?", looked at 22 disaster loss studies in various parts of the world. All of the studies showed an increase in damages from weather-related disasters in recent decades. The big question is, how much of this increase in damage was due to increases in population, and the fact people are getting wealthier, and thus have more stuff to get damaged? Fourteen of the 22 studies concluded that there were no trends in damage after correcting for increases in wealth and population, while eight of the studies did find upward trends even after such corrections. In all 22 studies, increases in wealth and population were the "most important drivers for growing disaster losses."
Bouwer's review of these 22 disaster loss studies was critiqued this year by Neville Nicholls of the School of Geography and Environmental Science of Montash University, Australia. His analysis, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, notes that Bouwer's study of damage losses did not include the impact of improvements in building codes and weather forecasting. We can expect both factors to have significantly reduced damages due to storms in recent years. Nicholls concludes, "The absence of an upward trend in normalized losses may be due to a balance between reduced vulnerability (from improved weather forecasting and building techniques) and increased frequency or intensity of weather hazards." In his reply to Nicholls' comments, Bouwer states that Nicholls "provides no support that these factors have actually contributed to a substantial reduction in losses over the period of the last decades."
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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How's warner springs treating you?
Doing well Tom, great weather out here for July, should be 90-100, and it was like 76 today! wow!
yeah thats what all those spaces were for, I was trying to get the video in there...took a little bit.
Anyway, hopefully you guys get some more rain. Really doubt we will see any here at the coast. Didn't get any last time. Still fun to see the clouds in the distance though and I love the humid weather, nights are just right over here when its humid. When its not its a little too cold
And do you actually live up on the mountain? or further downhill?
And I remember the day I found out Hot Springs mountain was the highest in the county and I was really surprised. You can't see it from the coast really, so I always though Cuyamaca was the highest or something
ah makes sense. its kinda tucked away
I'm out for the night, I'll leave you with some more Jimi
one of my favorites from him.
anyway adios amigo
plenty more rain for you guys over the next 5 days
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE (T1107)
15:00 PM JST July 15 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Tokage (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 133.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east slowly
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5
Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in south quadrant
70 NM from the center in north quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 14.0N 134.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 13.5N 134.5E - Tropical Depression
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON MA-ON (T1106)
15:00 PM JST July 15 2011
==========================================
SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea Near Ogasawara Shoto
At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Ma-On (950 hPa) located at 20.8N 141.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0
Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center
Gale Force Winds
================
350 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
250 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 21.3N 137.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 23.3N 133.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 26.7N 132.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Still no hope for TX?
nope but they do need rain before the oil harvested in TX BUUUURNS
JTWC has that typhoon as a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale as well
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
132.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED
70 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KNOTS). OUTFLOW FROM TY
08W (Ma-on) IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PERSISTING OVER THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
140600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
It's killing Tokage!
EDIT: LOL i was listening to epic music when intensificaton to CAT4 happened
Tokage is going to be absorbed soon and will end up over Tokio...
Too bad for Japan...
and will rain....... radioactive water! (DUN DUN DUUUUN!!!)
EDIT: It's too quiet here. Too quiet.
EDIT 2: NEW ADVISORY!
Weather
Issued at: 5:00 p.m., 15 July 2011
At 2:00 p.m. Tropical Depression "HANNA" was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 850 km East of Virac Catanduanes (14.0%uFFFDN, 133.0%uFFFDE) with maximum sustained winds of 55 kph. It is forecast to move Northeast at 24 kph.
Tropical Cyclone Update
Issued at: 5:00 p.m., 15 July 2011
The Low Pressure Area East of Southern Luzon has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named HANNA
From PAGASA
Note: I am from PH, so i know this site.
good thing you didn't sing the most horrifying song.............
and it's wet here, too
After yesterday I wouldn't doubt it. We got what the old-timers call a "frog-strangler" down here. Then about midnight the worst lightning storm I've experienced in a while.
OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A METTER-SPRINGFIELD-BEAUFORT
LINE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES IN A FEW
PLACES. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS AREA REMAINS IN SEVERE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS...BOTH 1-HOUR AND 3-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 3 INCHES SHOULD BE EASILY SURPASSED GIVEN
THE HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES THAT ARE EXPECTED. COMPLICATING
MATTERS IS THAT HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO FALL DURING THE NEXT TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO THE
FULL MOON. PER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE HPC HEAVY RAIN DESK AND
CONSIDERING WHAT HAS TRANSPIRED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CHATHAM AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES...WE THINK ITS BEST TO HOIST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. REMEMBER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SIMPLY MEANS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT FLASH FLOODING
WILL OCCUR SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE DEFINED WATCH AREA AND IS NOT A
GUARANTEE THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OBSERVED OR A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SINK INTO THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES...INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA...LATER
TODAY SO THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS MINIMAL THERE ATTM.
I actually watched the lightening offshore...it was a spectacular show...
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE
...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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