Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Thank you, Angela.
New GFS 114 Hrs not looking good.
Thank you Ms. Fritz for the update.
Well, let's hope they have a hot spare so there doesn't have to be an all day raid rebuild.
;-)
Not gonna defend the CIMSS product but at some point you have to consider shear produced by the storm circulation. A system poking along embedded in easterly flow at 10 knots combined with an upper level wind with a healthy component of westerly flow at 20 knots would in fact yield 30 knots of 200mb-850mb shear on the NW quadrant of the mid level circulation. Shearing the northern half.
Some part of the system will always be under strong shear as long as upper level winds are 20-30 knots.
To put it simply-some part of the low-mid level circulation will always be in opposition to these upper level winds.
thanks for the info on the hh p
how strong is that icecoast ? and thanks doc and angela
LOL Bowling?
otherwise - hot, humid, icky ....... August
RAID is outdated. The cool storage is grid and doesn't use old-fashioned arrays. ;)
The models hoepfully come into better agreement in the near future.....but we will see with this unpredictable INVEST!
I will say, I haven't noticed GFS show the pressure below 1000mb yet (unless I missed it).
Probably a weak to moderate TS. Try not to focus much on the intensity right now, more on the pattern that it's showing.
Thanks.
I'm in central FL and it was an interesting change to see but I'm not convinced it's going to be anything other than a blob of moisture when/if it reaches us at all.
(larger...you know...click)
(click)
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I wonder what the odds were that 91L wouldn't develop by this point and perhaps not for a few more days at this rate? If that? Hope Rule and steering currents maps, right now anyway, take it on a sightseeing and hiking tour over Hispaniola and Cuba.
Still has time before it crosses the Windwards and momentum towards reorganisation may get it in before the door shuts (climatologically. For a few days).
An interesting season already.
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England beats India, best side in the world according to ICC rankings, in two tests by a combined total of 515 runs. Ouch. Hehe.
Gotta take issue with SHIPS tracking into far eastern GOM. Track file shows still east of Florida.
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 0 139N 572W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 12 145N 596W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 24 152N 620W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 36 160N 643W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 48 172N 666W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 60 186N 690W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 72 202N 714W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 84 219N 735W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 96 238N 750W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 108 253N 765W
AL 91 2011080112 03 SHIP 120 264N 780W
4:30 PM GMT on August 01, 2011
thanks looks like fla in the bulls eye for several runs now i also feel this will blow up when around the bahamas dont get caught off gaurd
Way to early to be speculating about any RI. Have to see how it looks before and after it interacts with PR/Hispaniola. Conditions aloft should be favorable for strengthening however.
The same.
Hey, I'm a "FL kiddo" and I'm not worried about soon-to-be Emily (91L). Models are just that and won't be very accurate until we get an establis LLC. Just playing the "wait-n-see" game now. I would say that it would be a good time to review everyone's hurricane plan and check their supply (kit).
I use that as well!
Same. KML import to GE.
I use the same.
Kevin Roth, lead meteorologist at The Weather Channel, wrote that severe thunderstorms could strike from central Pennsylvania through New England.
He also said temperatures could top 100 degrees in parts of Virginia.
Roth added that a frontal system was expected to march out of the Rocky Mountains through the northern Plains, upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes Monday.
He said two rounds of severe thunderstorms were expected in those areas due to the storm.
"A complex of severe thunderstorms moves out of eastern North Dakota through northern Minnesota producing damaging wind gusts and some hail this morning (Monday)," he said. "Those storms should die before reaching northern Wisconsin and northern Michigan."
"The next round of storms should develop in western or central sections of the Dakotas this afternoon and race eastward reaching northwest Michigan later this evening (Monday)," he added. "Damaging wind gusts, hail and a few tornadoes are possible with those storms."
Link
Look here at the original :)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scream
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