Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
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I close my eyes
Only for a moment and the moment's gone
All my dreams
Pass before my eyes a curiosity
Dust in the wind
All they are is dust in the wind
Just had to do it...lol
955
WHXX01 KWBC 011850
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1850 UTC MON AUG 1 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110801 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110801 1800 110802 0600 110802 1800 110803 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 60.5W 15.7N 63.0W 16.2N 65.4W 16.8N 67.7W
BAMD 15.3N 60.5W 15.5N 62.9W 15.7N 65.0W 16.1N 66.8W
BAMM 15.3N 60.5W 15.4N 63.0W 15.8N 65.3W 16.2N 67.3W
LBAR 15.3N 60.5W 16.0N 63.2W 17.0N 65.8W 18.0N 68.2W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110803 1800 110804 1800 110805 1800 110806 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 70.1W 19.5N 74.3W 21.1N 77.6W 22.8N 80.4W
BAMD 16.7N 68.6W 19.3N 72.0W 21.4N 75.0W 22.4N 78.4W
BAMM 16.8N 69.2W 19.1N 72.7W 21.3N 75.7W 23.0N 78.7W
LBAR 19.3N 70.1W 23.1N 73.0W 26.6N 74.0W 28.1N 74.9W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 67KTS 72KTS
DSHP 41KTS 45KTS 51KTS 56KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 60.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 56.7W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 54.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
Either contaminated or from a thunderstorm wind gust.
nop no closeed low so no TS
let me guess llc they should rename this one sybil
that spin on the NW side?
Handing the baton off to more western circulation:
Was hoping someone would catch that.
NOT BY ORGANIZATION STANDARDS
Coordinates: 14.6167N 59.45W
Acft. Static Air Press: 975.7 mb (~ 28.81 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 292 meters (~ 958 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.2 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 119° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 19.8°C (~ 67.6°F)
Dew Pt: 15.7°C (~ 60.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 knots (~ 56.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 21 mm/hr (~ 0.83 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
91L is generally to the south of 1900's track.
LO?? Isn't it normally DS?
Winds currently have been found at 40 mph all over the system, though there has been many NON CONTAMINATED dropsondes that found 45 mph winds...
Lol, reminds me of that episode of Family Guy where Peter won a day of golf with OJ Simpson and he didn't believe he was a murderer until Joe told him to do some "soul searching" around town to Dust in the Wind. Was a good one. haha
Grothar was the only one alive for the 1900 Storm but I don't see him on here today.
Ivan in 2004 is a good example of a system retaining it's name. It made 3 land falls and 2 "sea falls".
1007.5 mb, still SSE wind
Coordinates: 14.9833N 60.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.2 mb (~ 28.83 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 278 meters (~ 912 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.5 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 130° at 17 knots (From the SE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C (~ 75.2°F)
Dew Pt: 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
1007.5mb lowest ive seen
Recon right on top of 91L's LLC, and they have already Cleared the North, and East side as a Closed Circulation, last half to GO!!
91L Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator) Loop
Yup, that's the lowest so far.
That doesn't seem accurate.
(~ 29.75 inHg)
You mean DB. It has been classified as a LO for days. DB is more often used with just a tropical wave without an imbeded low.
Cool, did you eat it? I ate a couple last time that happened. LOL
We 100% do not have Emily, they probably meant to say 'if they find a closed circulation we have tropical storm Emily'
Hold the boat, pressure still dropping, they perhaps haven't reached the centre just yet.
Meh, what do they know...they probably don't even know of this website. lol
Pressure dropping, winds rising...
Things left on the check list:
Closed low confirmed
Organization
Blow up of convection of the center
Viewing: 501 - 551
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