Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Second short wave will grab it if it consolidates.
am starting too pull my hair ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeek
The models have constantly been expecting 91L to pick up more latitude. That hasn't happened. It still looks to be too far south to be picked up by anything at this point.
Even a storm with presure <940mb would have a hard time going north from that location:
*****This is not the current steering layer for the real 91L*****
*****This is being posted for sake of discussion*****
After looking backward through time, the trough currently off the east coast of Florida actually looks to be getting a little weaker, and the high NE of the Bahamas looks to be strengthening.
Thank you DD, that's the part I wanted to hear! Not just that "the models say so"..
Dude stop making usernames, you have always have been a troll, you can't hide yourself.
Yeh even if they don't find a completely closed low now, the evidence suggests that it could close off at anytime so they should at least call it a TD and issue TS warnings so that people will take the system more seriously.
Absolutely. Until it organizes, it won't strengthen, and the models won't describe it very well. Recognizing a mess as a mess is not always easy while wishing for a TD / TS.
Tampa??? You obviously aren't familiar with the sacred Seminole Indian burial ground that magically keeps hurricanes away from Tampa!!
ain't no computer model for that. ;)
Interesting. Ever been in a non destructive Cat 2? No? me either lol
But unless i'm really green, wouldn't that High help it push it away from Florida?
I can look at the upper levels on satellite and see it without looking at models
If a dropsonde has a rainfall rate of .5/6 or more an hour, than they are rain flagged, and the Recon just didnt tag them...
None of those would be used...
theyve only found 45 mph winds that have low rainfall rates, and not conaminated
Yep. When looking at any wind estimate, it's always good to look at three things:
- 1. If it's flagged. This can count for the other measurements as well within the recording, like rainfall.
- 2. Whether the flight level winds are believable in comparison. Of course, though this is generally the case, there can be conditions where surface could be a bit stronger. It's a good indicator regardless, particularly when they aren't even close.
- 3. Sudden altitude variations.
do you not see the front off the SE coast of the US right now? do you not see the winds off the Central FL coast coming out of the SW?
that is the weakness that allows it to make a turn towards Hispanoila.
Report and Flag Jason Everyone
Cape Verde season hasn't started yet. Indications are that SAL will be lower than average in the CATL.
a non destructive Cat 2....hmm Alicia was a 3 in '83 and it was all wind and rain...plus we have better building codes now then back in '83...
Well then it's 2009 and 2010 all over again, lets shut it down and come back next year
Yeah! MFFL! If you only knew!!
Isn't making multiple usernames in order to harass the blog (because everyone's blocked your previous ones) a bannable offense? Too bad IP bans don't work.
I mean we've had two special tropical weather outlooks in the past two days. Namely at 11 am this morning and at 5pm yesterday.
Aaahh, an Ernesto or Faye-type raingiver would be welcome to visit my dry neighborhood, but I guess most of South US wants a TS or similar slow moving storm... Let's see who'll win :)
There was one at 10:25 AM this morning.
LOL! that's funny
BTW is there no way to IP ban Jason?
Dude, you've been here 11 days. Chill out with the instructions. Most of us here know that to just ignore is better than to make a fuss. Chill out jeez
Got a ridge over Bahamas, front coming down aint gonna cut it, and then when that moves off the ridge of TX gonna go back to the east or NE and....well 91L gonna be thousand miles off course
Ike was a weakening 2 when it hit Houston and blew out windows downtown.
thanks
some model have backed off big time on 91l
Lets put cloudburst on ignore, he's only here to start trouble, I have no idea what he's talking about. He must be looking at the CLOUDBURST model.
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