Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 — Blog Index
91L's T# is
2.5, but could be getting upped toward 3 now
most likely
Agree, not yet...... now soon after this post, renumber
000
URNT15 KNHC 012056
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 29 20110801
204600 1503N 06103W 9757 00273 0066 +240 +207 281003 004 006 002 03
204630 1505N 06103W 9761 00270 0066 +237 +209 292001 003 008 003 00
204700 1506N 06103W 9756 00275 0066 +239 +211 341001 002 011 000 00
204730 1508N 06104W 9758 00270 0064 +240 +212 175001 002 010 002 00
204800 1510N 06104W 9758 00271 0063 +239 +213 157003 004 011 001 00
204830 1511N 06104W 9764 00264 0062 +239 +214 150004 005 010 001 00
204900 1511N 06104W 9764 00264 0063 +238 +215 134006 007 010 001 00
204930 1514N 06105W 9755 00273 0063 +231 +216 118008 009 019 005 00
205000 1516N 06105W 9754 00271 0063 +223 +215 108017 022 024 014 00
205030 1517N 06105W 9769 00257 0063 +211 //// 099027 028 052 016 01
205100 1519N 06106W 9752 00277 0065 +218 +208 095027 028 040 011 00
205130 1520N 06106W 9757 00273 0067 +224 +204 089030 030 026 008 03
205200 1522N 06106W 9762 00269 0068 +228 +202 088029 030 030 017 00
205230 1523N 06105W 9761 00272 0069 +228 +200 084032 034 037 012 00
205300 1525N 06105W 9748 00285 0070 +220 +198 082032 034 030 003 00
205330 1526N 06105W 9761 00273 0071 +224 +198 078031 032 030 004 03
205400 1527N 06104W 9769 00267 0072 +224 +197 079036 037 032 005 03
205430 1528N 06103W 9752 00282 0072 +230 +197 079036 037 037 005 03
205500 1528N 06102W 9760 00276 0073 +229 +197 079034 035 036 009 00
205530 1529N 06100W 9762 00274 0073 +231 +196 080036 036 036 008 00
$$
;
IMO I do not think so. It's heading steadily west and it's going to hit something before it would go out to sea. Whether it hits the US or not is another question and will be found out in the coming days.
Those T-numbers aren't valid because they were not analyzing the cloud pattern based off of this center. It analyzed a different center under the convection.
no we dont have here he posting fas info its still 91L
Whenever a system is about to be classified, ATCF 'renumber' the system, and release a line very similar to the one he posted. He decided to post a fake one.
Taz, he's trolling, just look at his handle.
This is what a real one looks like. When 90L became Don: invest_RENUMBER_al902011_al042011.ren
nop not yet but it seems like we do now have a closed low so any time now
How strong is the storm in this run?
yes, we don't have an TS or anything called E-M-I-L-Y...
Not official but it seems likely to be imminent.
I'm off to Wal-deMort to get my gear:
new helmet
4 cans of Fix-a-Flat
PopTarts
card board
roll of screen
can't they ban via email addy? seems more logical...
Yep, won't be a named storm till at least 11pm (unless it shows improved organization over the next few hours)... still very disorganized.
and Fruit by the Foot!!! don't forget it!
COC has outrun the convection and is exposed...
They're not waiting for a certain time, they're waiting until they confirm this sytem meets the criteria to be upgraded... it'll happen as soon as they know so they can get the warnings up.
That's even easier to circumvent than an IP ban (which is not terribly difficult to do).
Viewing: 1301 - 1351
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 — Blog Index