Invest 91L reorganizing; The heat is on (again)
Invest 91L, which is located near 14°N, 57°W, is showing signs of reorganization after a pretty rough weekend. On Saturday, the wave looked ripe to develop with organized convection and the hint of a surface circulation. On Sunday a Hurricane Hunter and NOAA G9 flew into the system only to find it disorganized and negatively influenced by the burst of convection that sprouted on its western edge. Since then, low-level circulation has at least strengthened, if not consolidated, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should be prepared for tropical storm advisories to be posted on short notice. Satellite loops show decent thunderstorm activity and some mid-level circulation, and continued bursts of thunderstorms to the southwest of the invest region. The wave is surrounded by moderately strong wind shear (30-40 knots) on both the north and the south sides, which could delay development. Also, a large mass of dry, Saharan air continues to linger to 91L's north. In a mission this morning, Hurricane Hunters found winds close to tropical storm strength, but no signs of a closed surface circulation—just plenty of winds from the east or southeast. The next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT, and they will continue every six hours if the system remains a threat.
Figure 1. Visible satellite of Invest 91L at 10:30am EDT as it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles.
Forecast For 91L
Development will probably occur in the next day or two, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the wave a 90% chance in the next 48 hours. The question now is where will it go, and how long will it remain a tropical cyclone. Models are split today, although still leaning toward an Atlantic recurving solution. In the camp of a Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC and the UKMET models. The GFS and the ECMWF are still in favor of the system tracking northwest toward Florida (and coming close) before taking a turn to the northeast. The NOGAPS model is resolving a Florida landfall in this morning's run, and the HWRF hints that it might like that solution, as well, at the end of its run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. However, it is extremely difficult to nail down a track before a cyclone has even developed. Something we know for sure is that 91L is a threat to the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas.
In terms of intensity, both the GFDL and the HWRF are thinking this will eventually get to hurricane strength once it develops, although neither are forecasting it to become stronger than a category 1. SHIPS (which tracks 91L into the far eastern Gulf of Mexico) brings the system up to a category 1 hurricane, and the LGEM does as well, but is slower in its intensification. General consensus this morning is that 91L will max out somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Again, this is something that is difficult to predict before development itself occurs.
The Heat Is On (Again)
Someone turned the furnace on again in the central U.S., although many would argue that it was never actually turned off after the last heat wave. Heat advisories have been issued from southern Louisiana to North Dakota. Temperatures are expected to climb to 115°F in the central Plains through Wednesday, and heat index values will soar again. Oklahoma has now seen over a month of high temperatures hitting at least 100°. Some reprieve could come later this week.
Figure 2. Weather advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Heat-related advisories are pink.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Almost, wrote that I didn't expect it to become TD5/Emily in my blog lol
We had this crop up with Arlene IIRC, the ATCF said 30kts but the name was still Arlene. The NHC will probably go 45 mph first advisory.
They haven't really updated it yet, its just officially renumbered now.
HALLELUJAH!!!!
Hello again Emily.
no model is perfect but they all forecast a weakness, just to varying degrees.
forecast winds in S. FL tonight thru Wed. out of the SW so the weakness in the ridge is clearly there.
You're too late. That would have been 72 hr ago. ;)
Funny how a couple of those radiosondes seemed to have been reporting upside down or something in that run, what with the wind direction being flipped 180 degrees.
Someone wanna fill me in?
TS
TS. Hasn't update the 30knot, but the addition of 'Emily' means they know it's a TS.
Ya, you would think so with the proximity to land.
150 Hr GFS recurves it but not as sharp, misses Florida this run.
1:00 PM 86.0 °F 96.9 °F 77.0 °F 74% 29.80 in 5.6 mi South 12.7 mph - N/A Mostly Cloudy
2:00 PM 84.2 °F 96.1 °F 78.8 °F 84% 29.80 in 3.7 mi SSW 12.7 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
3:00 PM 82.4 °F 90.9 °F 77.0 °F 84% 29.80 in 3.7 mi SW 8.1 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain
4:00 PM 82.4 °F 90.9 °F 77.0 °F 84% 29.77 in 5.0 mi West 10.4 mph - N/A Rain Light Rain Showers
4:11 PM 78.8 °F - 77.0 °F 94% 29.77 in 1.2 mi WSW 12.7 mph - N/A Rain Rain Showers
5:00 PM 80.6 °F 86.2 °F 75.2 °F 84% 29.77 in 1.2 mi WSW 17.3 mph - N/A Rain ,
Or wondering why they went that way?
That is the 18Z value, it will be updated to at least 35 kt.
You changed your avatar. Almost didn't recognize you. Lol. We finally have Emily. She had been duking it out with the eastern mid-level circulation all morning, but she finally won. Not really much change in models, for the moment. Things should start becoming a lot more clear now that she is classified.
Plus something over 7500 comments on this blog.
For the blog this was like 3 days in labor followed by a breach birth.
Gonna be watching this closely to see if I have to cut my trip short.
Amen, Taz.
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