Category 3 Hurricane Irene tracks northwest through the Bahamas
Hurricane Irene remains a powerful category 3 this afternoon, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Irene is moving northwest through the Bahamas at 12 mph, and its center has cleared the northern edge of Crooked Island. The next islands in the path of Irene are Rum Cay (population 80) and Cat Island (population 1700), which it will encounter later tonight. Irene will track northeast of Long Island (in the Bahamas) over the next 24 hours. George Town has been reporting wind gusts up to around 40 mph this afternoon, and wind speed will likely increase during the next 12 hours as Irene's center passes about 30-40 miles to their northeast. Long Island in the Bahamas will likely see category 1 winds, which begin at 74 mph. Shelters on New Providence and Grand Bahama are open and ready for business, and Grand Bahama International Airport will remain closed until Irene passes.
Irene continues to look well-organized on satellite, especially compared to yesterday afternoon. Since then, intense upward motion, and therefore strong thunderstorm activity, has encompassed the center on all sides, which has led to a well-defined eye. Throughout the morning, Irene's eye wall has shrunk, and a new eye wall could be developing, although it remains unclear at this point. If this is the case, it could lead to some temporary weakening of the hurricane, which would be good for the Bahamas. This afternoon, Irene's hurricane-force winds extend 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles from the center. Earlier this morning, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission investigated Irene and a NOAA Gulfstream (Gonzo) is currently collecting data around the hurricane.
Figure 1. Microwave satellite imagery of Irene captured at 8am this morning. Image source: Naval Research Laboratory.
Track forecast for Irene
NOAA has continued dropsonde missions today, scouring the atmosphere for data as far north as the waters off of South Carolina. Every bit of upper-air data that the models can ingest will lead to better forecasts and decreased uncertainty. These missions are an investment that pay off. Irene will track through the central Bahamas today, the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, and approach the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday. Beyond this there is a bit of divergence in the models. Both the GFDL and the HWRF are forecasting a landfall on Long Island, New York, and the ECMWF continues to suggest a landfall even further west than that. NOGAPS is still the eastern outlier, which misses the U.S. all together and makes landfall in Canada. Today the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center agrees with the GFS forecast through Saturday morning, and then diverges ever so slightly to the west of that through Monday. It has become clear over the past 3 days that everyone on the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine should be prepared to feel impacts from Hurricane Irene.
Figure 2. Official track forecast provided by the National Hurricane Center.
Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene continues to be embedded in a large envelope of moisture, and wind shear is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 20 knots, for the next three days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification to a category 4 hurricane (winds of 131 to 155 mph). The only reliable model that's not forecasting this intensification is the GFS, and this is likely due to its relatively course spatial resolution. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 4 tomorrow, with a decrease in intensity back to a category 3 on Friday.
Links
For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, check out the NHC wind probability product.
Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.
Our Wundermap is also a great resource for tracking hurricanes, with the ability to turn on multiple layers of data, including satellite, official track forecast, and current weather observations from not only the U.S. but the Caribbean and Bahamas, as well. Here's a link to get you started.
Angela
Reader Comments
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24/1145 UTC 13.8N 23.4W
24/1745 UTC 13.6N 26.1W
24/2345 UTC 12.0N 28.6W
stop it
Doing well.. nothing on the weather. If you remember last year there was that no name tropical system with about 30 mph gusts.. right there in Culter bay kids were hurt by flying debris and palm fronds waiting for school bus... really? and Tomorrow we are to get gusts like that? Crazy to see this system so close..and not even a t.s. watch.. (not wishcasting.. this is fla's and hurricane prone zones reality)
Is anybody around that remembers/knows the estimates of the costs of these warnings per square mile?
72 hr forcast
Thanks for using my image as your avatar!! Glad you like it.
Press angry =/ lol
Worrying about the storms is not wishcasting, especially for those of us who have been through several. And especially for those who went through Andrew.
I can just see it - the storm moves a little closer, the winds and rain get awful -- and guess what -- the buses will be on the road again.
That would be the better scenario for me....but I'd rather have it just go out to sea.
they would have to come to work first
yeah...the proverbial 77W...that is supposed to be the magic number for this one lol...i know any more west and the cone will change...if calculations are correct it is now about 75.3...that is only 1.7 to go before the "magic 77"...that is about 5-7 hours by the average speed now...soooooo....that is by first light or so...then...due north...
Has Irene turned yet? I'm a little reluctant to hit the hay if she's gonna pay Florida a surprise early morning visit.
Well it extends down to 500mb so it is helping Irene come west, but it isn't being missed by the models, so it is unlikely to help it come any farther west than the models already say it will. Models do have a hard time with cut-off upper lows in the tropics, and so some minor adjustments of a couple dozen miles to the track could occur in the short term. This is why Nassau in the Bahamas should be prepared for a direct hit from the eyewall, even though the track is slightly east of them right now.
20 to 40 miles across when they get down to cat 4 and below. Nice and clear, you can see all the way to the surface of the ocean from 55,000 feet up
lol press...you wanna east cast so you can go sailing... :P
Thank you! Please take all pets/animals into consideration when planning and preparing, especially for evacuations. After responding to almost every major US natural disaster in the last 10 years, I urge everyone not to believe that your pets are safe in your homes with a bowl of water when you evacuate. I apologize for being blunt about this but I have seen too many dead and injured animals doing my job and too many separated from their owners never to be reunited. Even if your home is intact, you never know how long it will be before you are let back into an evacuation zone. Even many Red Cross shelters around the country are beginning to allow for co-located shelters (people in one building and pets in an adjacent building). Please spread the word, keep your pets safe, and put me out of a job. :)
Not just rain. Or Thunderstorms. But...
"Hurricane Conditions Possible".
Only a 30% chance of rain for Charlotte. They still seem pretty confident of the turn to the east.
I'm wondering if the Bruno Mars concert at Atlantis will be cancelled next weekend (9/3)
When clicking on this satellite loop and clicking the Trop pts...Irene is DEAD NUTS on track with the NHC forecast...so she has not deviated really....
...this is still bad for the east coast of the US from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and northward...but there is no reason to believe right now she is left of the projected track at all...
you're not even gonna know she's pout there, sweetheart...btw...you have WU mail
Yes - there is a chance for TS force winds, but I think that the difference is that they won't be sustained.
But hey, what do I know?
Even if NNW that is checkmate
It would have to go almost due west if it's to hit Nassau directly. You think it can do that?
We (Martin Co. FL) just got a brief downpour from the east, from those little tiny spotty bands on the NW side.
Hi, Zoo! Are you maybe referring to this:
The Opportunity Costs of Hurricane Evacuation
Thanks, I bet the NHC is paying close attention to it too.
Not half way complete as yet. Probably not until noon tomorrow before Irene clears out the eye again. EWRCs do not necessarily weaken a hurricane although that can happen. Typically the intensity levels off
Very few taking the threat seriously at this point. Many people i have spoken to say they've heard it all before and it didn't happen (overexposed to previous media hype).
WCBS is just starting to pick up the story, but prior to a couple of hours ago, the lead story was about: 'Verrazano' The Kitten
Whoopi Goldberg Adopts Kitten Allegedly Tossed From Verrazano Bridge
And, I'm not joking, the kitten was #1 story, Irene #4.
Wake up people!
Ahhh! Thanks for that link. I'll be able to sleep now.
so...she is gonna be out there pouting huh? yeah, cuz you wont be on your boat lol...and i got that a few hours ago...and yes, i am glad you did NOT say that on the blog roflmbo
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