Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Texas fires will diminish today; Lee's rains set all-time records

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on September 06, 2011

+32

East Texas' dangerous fires continued to rage out of control yesterday, thanks to gusty north winds associated with the passage of a cold front and the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Lee. Since Saturday, wildfires have torched over 500 homes in East Texas and killed two people. At Austin Bergstrom Airport, sustained winds of 20 - 25 mph, gusting to 30 - 35 mph blew much of the day yesterday. Tropical Storm Lee's remnants didn't bring any clouds or moisture to Austin yesterday, and the temperature climbed to 91°, with a humidity of just 11%. With the region enduring it's driest 1-year drought on record, yesterday's heat, dryness, and winds resulted in critical fire conditions. The forecast today for Austin is much better--winds will be only 5 - 10 mph, which should give firefighters the upper hand in many of the blazes, despite low humidities that will be in the 15 - 25% range. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is not predicting that critical fire weather conditions will return during the remainder of the week. You can monitor today's fire activity by using our wundermap for Austin with the fire layer turned on.

Figure 1. True-color image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite of the the fires burning near Austin, Texas on September 5, 2011. Image credit: NASA.

Video 1. Video shot by a motorist on Highway 21 near Austin, Texas of the smoke from the fires that raced through Bastrop County on September 4, 2011.The highway closes and the motorist is forced to turn around.

Texas' unprecedented heat
As I reported in yesterday's post, there has never been a Texas summer hotter than the summer of 2011. The summer of 2011 now holds every major heat record for the city of Austin, including most 100° days (67 so far), hottest month in recorded history (August, breaking the previous record by a remarkable 2.1°), hottest summer (by 1.1°), and hottest day in history (112°F, tied with Sep, 5, 2000.) As wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt documents in his latest blog post, the situation is similar across the rest of the state. Seventeen major cities in Texas recorded their hottest summer on record in 2011. Most of these stations had records extending back more than 100 years, and several of the records were smashed by an amazing 3.4°F--at Lubbock and at Wichita Falls. Neighboring states also experienced unprecedented heat, with Oklahoma recording America's hottest month by any state in recorded history during July, and Shreveport, Louisiana breaking its record for hottest month by 3°F in August. Mr. Burt commented to me: " I do not believe I have ever seen a site with a long period of record, like Shreveport, where records go back to 1874, break its warmest single month on record by an astonishing 3°. This is unheard of. Usually when a site breaks its single month temperature record, we are talking about tenths of a degree, rarely a whole degree, let alone 3 degrees! Hard to believe, frankly." Texas has also had its worst fire season on record, with over 3.5 million acres burned this year, and it's driest 1-year period in recorded history.

Figure 2. Observed soil moisture for Sunday Sep 4, 2011. Soil moisture is expressed in percent, with 50% being a historically average soil moisture level. Very dry soils, with moistures in the driest 1% - 30% in history (red and orange colors), were present over much of the south, where Lee dropped its heaviest rains. These dry soils have limited flooding damage. Image credit: N OAA Climate Prediction Center.

Heavy rains from Lee create significant flooding
Tropical Storm Lee is no more, but its remnants are marching slowly northeastwards along a stalled cold front, bringing torrential rains. Jackson, Mississippi received 11.68" in a 24 hour period yesterday, which is that city's heaviest 24-hour rainfall on record, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Their previous record was 8.54", set April 11 -12, 1979. Fortunately, Jackson was in severe drought, and the dry soils were able to absorb a significant amount of rain before the local rivers began flooding. The Pearl River at Jackson rose above flood stage this morning, and is expected to crest at moderate flood stage late this week. Chattanooga, Tennessee also set its record for the wettest 24-hour period in its history, with 9.85" falling yesterday. The previous record was 7.61", set on March 30, 1886. Again, the dry soils that were present before the event started will help keep river flooding in the minor to moderate range on area rivers. Soils are at near-average moisture levels in Central Pennsylvania, where Lee's remnants are expected to drop over seven inches of rain over the next two days. These rains should cause moderate and possibly major flooding in Pennsylvania. Also of concern is the potential for tornadoes today. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has logged 25 tornado reports over the past three days from Lee, including three near Atlanta, Georgia yesterday. More tornadoes are likely today over North Carolina, Southern Virginia, and Northern South Carolina, where SPC is predicting a "Slight Risk" of severe weather.

Lee's heaviest rain amounts, by state, as of 4 am CDT today:

Holden, LA: 15.43"
Florence, MS: 13.45"
Tillman's Corner, AL: 11.74"
Milton, FL: 10.03"
Chattanooga, TN: 9.85"
Rome, GA: 5.70"
Roanoake, VA: 4.30"
Bluefield, WV: 3.14"
Bridge City, TX: 3.12"
Flatwoods, KY: 3.67"

Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for the 2-day period 8am EDT Tuesday - 8 am EDT Thursday, Sep 8, 2011. Lee's remnants are expected to bring a large swath of 7+ inches of rain into Central Pennsylvania. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane Katia strengthened this morning into the Atlantic's first Category 4 hurricane of the year, but has slipped slightly in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle, and is now a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Latest satellite loops show that the eye has now disappeared, and the hurricane is having trouble maintaining its eyewall in the face of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots on its northwest side. Continued weakening to a Category 2 storm is a possibility, though Katia will probably re-strengthen later today or on Wednesday once it manages to build a new eyewall.

The computer models continue to agree that a low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee will turn Katia to the north well before the storm reaches the U.S. As the storm moves northwards past North Carolina, Katia will get caught up in west-to-east moving winds associated with the jet stream, and taken northeastwards out to sea. No land areas are in Katia's cone of uncertainty, and Katia's outer rainbands should remain just offshore from North Carolina, New England, and the Canadian Maritime provinces at the point of closest approach. The main impact of Katia will be high surf leading to beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Long period swells from Katia have arrived at the coast, and the entire U.S. East Coast will receive an extended multi-day period of high surf. The East Coast is lucky that Tropical Storm Lee came along, since Lee helped to create the steering pattern that will keep Katia from hitting the U.S.

Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Katia.

95L off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave with plenty of intense thunderstorm activity and spin is located about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. This wave, Invest 95L, is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and is headed west to west-northwest at 15 mph. Recent satellite loops show that 95L has an elongated circulation center; this will need to tighten up into a more circular shape before the storm can become a tropical depression. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L is embedded in a very moist environment. Ocean temperatures are near 28°C, which is 1.5°C above the 26.5°C threshold usually needed for a tropical storm to form. With wind shear predicted to remain low to moderate the next four days, the atmosphere expected to stay moist, and ocean temperatures predicted to gradually warm, I don't see anything that would keep 95L from becoming a tropical depression in 1 - 2 days. NHC is giving 95L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. There is a large amount of model support for development of 95L into a tropical depression, with most of the models predicting it could be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday or Saturday. Residents of the islands should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Friday. Most of the models predict 95L will follow a path near or slightly north of the Northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, then curve northwestwards, on a trajectory that would likely miss the Bahamas.

New Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A cold front swept into the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Texas behind Tropical Storm Lee yesterday morning, and has stalled out along a line from Tampa, Florida to Mexico's Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorms have begun to build along the tail end of this front in the Bay of Campeche, but are still not very concentrated or organized. Most of the computer models develop a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche late this week, and these same models did very well at anticipating the formation of Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Given the moderate wind shear, warm waters, and presence of an old cold front to serve as a nucleus for development, a new Gulf of Mexico tropical depression by late this week appears likely. The path such a storm might take would depend strongly on where the center forms. A more northerly formation location near the top of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would likely result in a northward motion towards the Florida Panhandle. This is the solution of the European Center Model (ECMWF), which takes a weak tropical storm with a central pressure of 1000 mb into the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. A more southerly formation location might lead to the storm getting trapped in a region of weak steering currents, resulting in a slow, erratic motion in the southern Gulf. This is the solution of the latest runs of the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models. NHC is giving this disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday.

Figure 5. Volunteers with Portlight.org disaster relief charity take a break from their Hurricane Irene relief efforts in Pink Hill, NC. From their latest blog post:Please help as you can. And please remember in your thoughts and prayers those in the path of Irene.

Jeff Masters

Crockett Texas Wildfire 2 (Moussifer)

A tree becomes a torch. We could hear the fire's roar.

Bastrop's Burnin (CenTexWeatherGal)

This HUGE fire has already burned over 500 homes and over 30,000 acres. It is 0, yes 0 percent contained and stretches 16 miles long and 6 miles wide. The smoke plume can be seen on dopler radar. This fire is actually to the north east of Bastrop which is east of Austin.

Magnolia Fire (shanzi)

Mighty close!

flood (lazzyhazy1)

Categories: Fire Flood Hurricane

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1051. swampliliy 10:30 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Jasonsapology: So Taz, why is a fish storm bad? Why are you so happy that it might hit PR? You seem to ignore any question that calls you out. So why is a fish storm bad? You seem quite inquisitive for a 34 day old member? Name seems to ring a bell though... Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 7 Comments: 7039

1052. uptxcoast 10:31 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Louisiana, please watch the GOM carefully this week! Invest 96 could turn ugly very quickly and if the center forms far enough south it could have all week to develop! Everyone South of Brownsville and east of the Sabine Pass needs to watch this one. Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 226

1053. SPLbeater 10:31 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Tazmanian i never said it was going out to sea, i was saying another storm for us to HOPE and WISH it was going out to sea. Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

1054. MiamiHurricanes09 10:31 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting GTcooliebai: Where do you think is the more likely path of invest 96L? I'm thinking that it'll probably mimic the path depicted in the 12z ECMWF. The deep-layer trough that should be approaching the region in a few days looks like it'll be amplified enough to bring it northwards. Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

1055. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:31 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
012L/H/K/C3 MARK 28.26N/67.76W Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

1056. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:33 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
================================================= ======= Quoting StormHype: That's your post also, so point is moot. Way too much dry air pushing in from the north on this for now to see it making up to the NE GOM as a TS. It's likely going to get pushed into MX as a blob as all models sans the Euro are showing. Huh? The EURO sends 96L into Florida/Louisiana as a significant hurricane. Additionally, its not likely to get pushed into Mexico. The models all disagree, some send it to Texas, others to Mexico, and others to Florida. As for the dry air, anybody can tell you the same thing I did in post #946. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

1057. SPLbeater 10:35 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Katia is still trying to get her act together...time runnin out for that storm Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

1060. GTcooliebai 10:35 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: ================================================= ======= Huh? The EURO sends 96L into Florida/Louisiana as a significant hurricane. Additionally, its not likely to get pushed into Mexico. The models all disagree, some send it to Texas, others to Mexico, and others to Florida. As for the dry air, anybody can tell you the same thing I did in post #946. I've been saying Maria would be the "sleeper" hopefully I'm wrong, but I got a feeling I'm not. Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5170

1061. Sfloridacat5 10:35 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Local TV met (head meteorologist) said that 96L was a non-issue for the U.S. because it will be moving into Mexico. Hummm - time will tell. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

1062. SPLbeater 10:35 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

1063. justalurker 10:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
all aboard, welcome to the choo choo ride. Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

1064. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:36 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

1066. Thrawst 10:37 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: img src="http://i.imgur.com/3TbOW.gif" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; " Are those your projected points ?? If so, I've lost a lot of respect for you pointing a potential major hurricane about 120 miles or so to my east at your last point :P Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1057

1067. Tazmanian 10:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: ================================================= ======= Huh? The EURO sends 96L into Florida/Louisiana as a significant hurricane. Additionally, its not likely to get pushed into Mexico. The models all disagree, some send it to Texas, others to Mexico, and others to Florida. As for the dry air, anybody can tell you the same thing I did in post #946. TropicalAnalystwx13 even if it dos go out too sea it stil wont be call a fish storm be come it has hit land Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1068. SPLbeater 10:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Aint no way that this low pressure area near the Lesser Antillies is gonna develop with wind shear from Katia down there, that system is hopeless Member Since: August 4, 2011 Posts: 43 Comments: 3953

1069. swampliliy 10:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Jasonsapology: In 34 days I have seen many great and some not so great posts, as well as those that start screaming troll the second someone disagrees with a regular on this blog. Taz calls a lot of people out and poofs more people than anyone. He wants to be accepted as an "expert" on this blog, but he seems to be a troll in disguise to me. He is the first to call anyone out with their own opinion of a fish storm. I was simply asking him several times why a fish storm is bad and he get's so defensive over that term? You have WUmail. Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 7 Comments: 7039

1070. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Thrawst: Are those your projected points ?? If so, I've lost a lot of respect for you pointing a potential major hurricane about 120 miles or so to my east at your last point :P No, I put up that text in red to avoid confusion, lol. Those little points represent where, if the storm is south of it, then it is more likely to impact the USA. If the storm is north of them, then it is more likely to recurve. This doesn't apply to every storm of course. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

1071. muddertracker 10:39 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting justalurker: all aboard, welcome to the choo choo ride. stop this train...I wanna get off Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

1072. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:39 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: It's not just Taz. Bluestorm5 called me an idiot, taz poofed me and Orca freaked the heck out and called me some Canadian slur when I suggested Katia would be a fish. I are no science dooood, but ummmm.. she's a fish. What's up with the fish rage? Maybe it's confusion on the definition of a "fish storm" that is the root cause. A "fish storm" is a storm that does not make landfall. Brushing Bermuda, or even the CONUS doesn't count. You have haters Dewey, lol. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

1073. aprinz1979 10:40 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
I don't know which word gets people angrier here........FISH or WEST? Member Since: October 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

1074. caneswatch 10:40 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: ================================================= ======= Huh? The EURO sends 96L into Florida/Louisiana as a significant hurricane. Additionally, its not likely to get pushed into Mexico. The models all disagree, some send it to Texas, others to Mexico, and others to Florida. As for the dry air, anybody can tell you the same thing I did in post #946. That's scary lookin'. Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

1075. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:41 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting aprinz1979: I don't know which word gets people angrier here........FISH or WEST? It's a west-moving fish storm, haha. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

1076. robert88 10:41 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
All that dry sinking air in the GOM should keep the lid on 96L. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes deactivated soon. Member Since: May 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 877

1077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 10:41 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: It's not just Taz. Bluestorm5 called me an idiot, taz poofed me and Orca freaked the heck out and called me some Canadian slur when I suggested Katia would be a fish. I are no science dooood, but ummmm.. she's a fish. What's up with the fish rage? Maybe it's confusion on the definition of a "fish storm" that is the root cause. A "fish storm" is a storm that does not make landfall. Brushing Bermuda, or even the CONUS doesn't count. its a high seas storm get with the program are you trying to be a trouble maker here Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40476

1078. Thrawst 10:42 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: No, I put up that text in red to avoid confusion, lol. Those little points represent where, if the storm is south of it, then it is more likely to impact the USA. If the storm is north of them, then it is more likely to recurve. This doesn't apply to every storm of course. Ahh I gotchya :P Thanks for the info though! Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 49 Comments: 1057

1079. Tazmanian 10:42 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting SPLbeater: Aint no way that this low pressure area near the Lesser Antillies is gonna develop with wind shear from Katia down there, that system is hopeless LOL Jose from in high wind shear so can that in fac when we had Irene it was giveing wind shear too 91L wish be came Jose so yes am giveing that a ch Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1080. txjac 10:42 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting robert88: All that dry sinking air in the GOM should keep the lid on 96L. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes deactivated soon. Please no ..I would like to see it fight the dry air and make it to Texas and bust up some of this dryness. Nothing harsh ..just lots of rain Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565

1081. CybrTeddy 10:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting robert88: All that dry sinking air in the GOM should keep the lid on 96L. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes deactivated soon. I do not think so, not with the strong model support its receiving. ECMWF spinning it up is saying something. Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20228

1082. TropicalAnalystwx13 10:43 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
For those wondering about the dry air, please refer to my post #946. If you do not believe my post #946, then ask Levi or Drak or somebody about it. Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25274

1086. beell 10:44 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5: Local TV met (head meteorologist) said that 96L was a non-issue for the U.S. because it will be moving into Mexico. Hummm - time will tell. If 96L struggles to develop, it could very well drift into MX as a US pescado. Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12867

1087. muddertracker 10:44 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: You have haters Dewey, lol. and fans...the only thing you can't teach someone is how to develope a sense of humor... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

1091. Tazmanian 10:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: Mudder! What's the good word? You on fire yet? mail Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1092. TexasHurricane 10:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting txjac: Please no ..I would like to see it fight the dry air and make it to Texas and bust up some of this dryness. Nothing harsh ..just lots of rain I agree. :) Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1094. Tazmanian 10:48 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: Thanks Tazman... you rock. welcome Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111338

1095. muddertracker 10:48 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting FLdewey: Mudder! What's the good word? You on fire yet? Not yet...I can see the Leander fire from my house...Steiner Ranch fire is up the road a bit...they've got me surrounded. Turned on the sprinklers and sprayed down the roof ($2000 fine risk) yesterday when the Leander fire was ragin'...but we've been lucky. The whole backside of my neighborhood backs up to a greenbelt, so... Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2119

1096. Sfloridacat5 10:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting beell: If 96L struggles to develop, it could very well drift into MX as a US pescado. Definitely a strong possibility. But its definitely not guaranteed. The same met said Irene was going to hit Florida. When the models shifted, she had a nice crow dinner. Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2026

1097. TexasHurricane 10:50 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13: For those wondering about the dry air, please refer to my post #946. If you do not believe my post #946, then ask Levi or Drak or somebody about it. yeah, I think you said it would be going away? If so, maybe that will give TX a chance. I sure hope so. Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

1098. WhoDat42 10:50 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Levi32: Or don't, and come up with a logical forecast. I love these situations because people, including the NHC, are forced to use their own reasoning rather than following a model consensus, because there is no consensus. +1000000 Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 50

1100. violetprofusion 10:50 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Yikes, TD Fourteen looks like it could be a mean one. Of course it's way too early to tell. The NHC predicts it will become a hurricane by Sunday. No thank you! Go away, Fourteen! Very rainy day here on the East Coast. I wish with all my heart that I could send it to you folks in Texas. Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

1101. justalurker 10:50 PM GMT on September 06, 2011
Quoting Sfloridacat5: Definitely a strong possibility. But its definitely not guaranteed. The same met said Irene was going to hit Florida. When the models shifted, she had a nice crow dinner. i've had lamb, but what does crow taste like? Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

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